The 10-year health impact, economic impact, and return on investment of the South African molecular diagnostics programme for HIV, Tuberculosis and SARS-CoV-2

To ensure there is adequate investment into diagnostics, an understanding of the magnitude of impact and return on investment is necessary. We therefore sought to understand the health and economic impacts of the molecular diagnostic programme in South Africa, to deepen the under-standing on the broad value of diagnostics and guide future healthcare investments. We calcu-lated the 10-year (where data were available) total cost and DALYs averted associated with molecular diagnosis of molecular TB testing (2013-2022), HIV viral load monitoring (2013-2022), early infant diagnosis of HIV infection (2013-2022), and SARS-CoV-2 testing (2020-2022). We then calculated the economic value associated with those health gains and subsequent return on investment. Since the inception of the molecular diagnostics programme in South Africa, 3,035,782 DALYs have been averted as a direct consequence of this pro-gramme. This has generated an estimated $20.5 billion in economic value due to these health gains. The return on investment varied by specific diagnostic test (19.0 for tuberculosis, 1.4 for HIV viral load testing, 64.8 for early infant diagnosis of HIV, and 2.5 for SARS-CoV-2), for an average of 9.9 for the entire molecular diagnostics programme between 2013 and 2022- or $9.9 of value for each $1 invested. The molecular diagnostics programme in South Africa gen-erated a significant amount of health gains and economic value associated with these health gains, and the return-on-investment rivals other high-impact public health interventions such as childhood vaccination. Consequently, the molecular diagnostics programme in South Africa is highly impactful, and will continue to be an excellent investment of South African public health expenditure. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement Funding was received from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the South African Medical Research Council and the National Institutes of Health. The funder had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. ### Author Declarations I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained. Yes I confirm that all necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived, and that any patient/participant/sample identifiers included were not known to anyone (e.g., hospital staff, patients or participants themselves) outside the research group so cannot be used to identify individuals. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines, such as any relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material, if applicable. Yes The data are available open access in each relevant publication. Any missing data points were imputed rather than from raw data.