Diagnosing the Causes of Failing Waste Collection in Belize, Bolivia, the Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Panama, and Paraguay Using Dynamic Modeling

Most developing countries fail to provide waste collection services to all their citizens, which leads to many adverse effects. Nevertheless, research has not yet succeeded in explaining the underlying causes. We drew up a quantitative system dynamics model that can be used to diagnose the complex societal system that is leading to poor waste collection. The model describes demographic, social, economic, financial, participatory, and governance processes that may play a role. It is calibrated against real-life datasets for six Latin American countries. The calibration shows adequate performance of the model. Strong population growth appears to have a dual effect. It leads to an increase in available budgets for collection but also tends to dilute the available budget per inhabitant. Processes on the growth of GDP, government revenues, and quality of governance strongly improve access of citizens to waste collection. They do so separately but also because they reinforce each other. But, there are differences per country. Progress in Belize seems to be hampered mostly by low governance quality. For Bolivia, the hurdle seems to consist of an inability to increase public revenues and absorb new urban citizens. Ecuador and Paraguay would also benefit from increased revenues along with an ability to increase public participation. The Dominican Republic and Panama reveal an overall passivity to improve their services. This model may be useful for decision makers globally to develop effective interventions.