The projected increase of vertebral osteomyelitis in Germany implies a demanding challenge for future healthcare management of aging populations

Since an increase in the occurrence of native vertebral osteomyelitis (VO) is expected and reliable projections are missing, it is urgent to provide a reliable forecast model and make it a part of future health care considerations. Comprehensive nationwide data provided by the Federal Statistical Office of Germany were used to forecast total numbers and incidence rates (IR) of VO as a function of age and gender until 2040. Projections were done using autoregressive integrated moving average model on historical data from 2005 to 2019 in relation to official population projections from 2020 to 2040. The IR of VO is expected to increase from 12.4 in 2019 to 21.5 per 100,000 inhabitants [95