Examining the Utility of the Texas Risk Assessment System to Predict Community Supervision Compliance and Recidivism

Although most risk assessment research has examined tools in the prediction of recidivism, there is a growing body of literature that investigates risk assessment in the prediction of successful community supervision. The Texas Risk Assessment System-Community Supervision Tool (TRAS-CST) was developed from the Ohio Risk Assessment System-Community Supervision Tool (ORAS-CST) but has not been examined to predict recidivism or probation compliance. The current study investigates the predictive validity of the TRAS screener and full versions when examining supervision compliance and recidivism among a sample of 462 individuals on probation. Findings support predictive validity of incarceration due to rule violations and new offenses during supervision using the TRAS versions, along with the domains of the TRAS-CST version, although the effect sizes were small to moderate. Results also indicate that the domain scores on the full TRAS may provide important intervention focus for officers supervising individuals on community supervision.