A Machine Learning Approach for Predicting Radiation-Induced Hypothyroidism in Patients with Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Undergoing Tomotherapy

The purpose of this study was to establish an integrated predictive model that combines clinical features, DVH, radiomics, and dosiomics features to predict RIHT in patients receiving tomotherapy for nasopharyngeal carcinoma. Data from 219 patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma were randomly divided into a training cohort (n = 175) and a test cohort (n = 44) in an 8:2 ratio. RIHT is defined as serum thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) greater than 5.6 μU/mL, with or without a decrease in free thyroxine (FT4). Clinical features, 27 DVH features, 107 radiomics features and 107 dosiomics features were extracted for each case and included in the model construction. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression method was used to select the most relevant features. The eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) was then employed to train separate models using the selected features from clinical, DVH, radiomics and dosiomics data. Finally, a combined model incorporating all features was developed. The models were evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and decision curve analysis. In the test cohort, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the clinical, DVH, radiomics, dosiomics and combined models were 0.798 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.656–0.941), 0.673 (0.512–0.834), 0.714 (0.555–0.873), 0.698 (0.530–0.848) and 0.842 (0.724–0.960), respectively. The combined model exhibited higher AUC values compared to other models. The decision curve analysis demonstrated that the combined model had superior clinical utility within the threshold probability range of 1% to 79% when compared to the other models. This study has successfully developed a predictive model that combines multiple features. The performance of the combined model is superior to that of single-feature models, allowing for early prediction of RIHT in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma after tomotherapy.