100% Renewable Heat Supply in Berlin by 2050 – a Model-Based Approach

The energy crisis posed major challenges, especially for the heating sector. The European gas price increased from 16/MWh in March 2021 to 227/MWh in March 2022, which led to a debate in Germany around reshaping the heat supply to decrease energy import dependence. However, many actors on the heating market are reluctant to make the necessary investments to reduce dependence on natural gas. Although, independence of fossil energy imports by 2050 would be possible with a switch to a 100% renewable heat supply for Berlin. Based on the linear open-source energy system model GENeSYS-MOD, a 100% renewable-based energy system is modeled. GENeSYS-MOD is extended to model district heating, which is crucial for Berlin's heat supply. Furthermore, the modeling of heat pumps and a data set for Berlin is revised. The modeling considers the tightened climate protection targets, which means a 95% CO2 reduction by 2045 compared to 1990. By 2050, 100% of the transport, industry, electricity, and building sectors` emissions are mitigated. The results suggest the immediate exploitation of the existing renewable energy potential and seasonal heat storages, as well as a necessity for a major increase in renovation rates. The upcoming coal phase-out in Berlin in 2030 should be met by a mix of heat pumps and biomass. If heat pump resources are exhausted, direct electric heating is deployed as last resort option.