Modeling Sustainable Bioethanol Supply Chain in Australia: A System Dynamics Approach

The growing energy demand and concerns over fossil fuel consumption underscore the need for a shift to renewable energies and biofuels. Concurrently, the rising global population and increased biofuel demand strain the food supply system, requiring enhanced production capabilities. By using a system dynamics model, this study investigates the intricate relationship between bioethanol production and food security in Australia, emphasizing the essential balance for a sustainable bioethanol supply chain. The research explores the interplay among population, food supply, and energy supply subsystems, projecting diverse bioethanol production scenarios until 2050. Findings reveal constraints within the Australian bioethanol supply chain, with current capacity meeting demand at a 1.5% bioethanol blend rate to gasoline. However, surpassing 3.4% demands significant capacity expansions incurring substantial costs. At a 5% blend rate, it is imperative to augment the production capacity to 1275 million liters of bioethanol by 2050. The study underscores the limitations of relying on sorghum for bioethanol production, emphasizing the strategic need to embrace alternative sources such as wheat starch waste and molasses. Addressing the challenge of supplying sufficient food for consumption and energy production, our research advocates for a shift towards fuels produced without edible resources. These insights are vital for policymakers and industry stakeholders, contributing to the understanding of complexities in establishing a sustainable bioethanol industry while ensuring food security and environmental sustainability.