Comparative analysis of CO2 emissions and economic performance in the United States and China: Navigating sustainable development in the climate change era

Economic growth has brought global climate change into the spotlight, and CO2 emissions demonstrate significant challenges in reducing environmental shifts worldwide. Globally, the United States and China contribute the greatest amount of CO2 emissions. The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between different types of CO2 emissions and economic growth by using a modeling approach. We analyze total CO2 emissions, coal CO2 emissions, oil CO2 emissions, the global share of coal CO2 emissions, the global share of oil CO2 emissions, and economic growth. This study provides unique insights into how to simultaneously reduce CO2 emissions and sustain economic growth. A bootstrap autoregressive distributed lag (BARDL) simulation method is utilized to examine the long- and short-run effects of repressors on CO2 emissions. Coal CO2 emissions are found to have a significant positive effect on economic growth in the short run but a negative impact over the long run in the United States. The United States needs to implement stronger measures to balance coal CO2 emissions with economic growth for sustainable development. In contrast, oil CO2 emissions are positive for China in both the long run and short run. Thus, China can continue to reduce CO2 emissions from oil while maintaining positive economic growth. The Chinese policy can be adapted and implemented to maintain a balance between economic growth and carbon reduction. The study has valuable insights for policymakers seeking to balance economic growth with carbon reduction, emphasizing the need to better understand CO2 emissions’ relationship with economic growth.