Does shortage of GPs matter? A cross-sectional study of practice population life expectancy

Background There are not enough GPs in England. Access to general practice and continuity of care are declining. Aim To investigate whether practice characteristics are associated with life expectancy of practice populations. Design and setting A cross-sectional ecological study of patient life expectancy from 2015- 2019. Method Selection of independent variables was based on conceptual frameworks describing general practice's influence on outcomes. Sixteen non- correlated variables were entered into multivariable weighted regression models: population characteristics (Index of Multiple Deprivation, region, % White ethnicity, and % on diabetes register); practice organisation (total NHS payments to practices expressed as payment per registered patient, full- time equivalent fully qualified GPs, GP registrars, advanced nurse practitioners, other nurses, and receptionists per 1000 patients); access (% seen on the same day); clinical performance (% aged >= 45 years with blood pressure checked, % with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease vaccinated against flu, % with diabetes in glycaemic control, and % with coronary heart disease on antiplatelet therapy); and the therapeutic relationship (% continuity). Results Deprivation was strongly negatively associated with life expectancy. Regions outside London and White ethnicity were associated with lower life expectancy. Higher payment per patient, full-time equivalent fully qualified GPs per 1000 patients, continuity, % with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease having the flu vaccination, and % with diabetes with glycaemic control were associated with higher life expectancy; the % being seen on the same day was associated with higher life expectancy in males only. The variable aged >= 45 years with blood pressure checked was a negative predictor in females. Conclusion The number of GPs, continuity of care, and access in England are declining, and it is worrying that these features of general practice were positively associated with life expectancy.