Recent multispecies tree-growth decline reveals a severe aridity change in Mediterranean Chile

Soil moisture (SM) is a crucial factor in the water cycle, sustaining ecosystems and influencing local climate patterns by regulating the energy balance between the soil and atmosphere. Due to the absence of long-term, in-situ measurements of SM, studies utilizing satellite-based data and tree-ring analysis have become valuable in assessing variations of SM at regional and multi-century scales, as well as determining its effects on tree growth. This information is particularly pertinent in biodiversity hotspots made up of semi-arid ecosystems currently threatened by climate change. In the Mediterranean Chile region (MC; 30°–37° S), an ongoing megadrought since 2010 has resulted in a significant decline in the forest throughout the area. However, the impact of SM on tree growth at a multi-species and regional level remains unexplored. We analyzed a new network of 22 tree-ring width chronologies across the MC to evaluate the main spatiotemporal tree-growth patterns of nine woody species and their correlation with SM, using PCA. We also reconstructed the SM variations over the past four centuries and assessed its connection with large-scale climate forcings. Our results indicate that the primary growth patterns (PC1) explained 27% of the total variance and displayed a significant relationship with SM between 1982–2015 ( r = 0.91), accurately reflecting the current megadrought. The tree-ring SM reconstruction covers the period 1616–2018 and shows a strong decrease around the year 2007, revealing an unprecedented recent change in aridity with respect to the last four centuries. The intensity of the South Pacific subtropical anticyclone, which primarily owe their existence to the subsiding branch of the Hadley Cell, appears as the primary climatic mechanism correlated with the reconstruction and the present aridity conditions in MC. The current SM conditions align with anticipated aridity changes in MC, providing a bleak perspective of future regional climate.