The carbon emissions risk evolution and low-carbon optimization in a typical mountainous region on the western edge of the Sichuan Basin, China

Land use and cover change (LUCC) is a major driver of this rapid increase in atmospheric carbon. To reasonably plan various types of land use areas and mitigate the rate of growth of carbon emissions, this study takes Yaan, Sichuan province, as a case study. First, the calculation of Yaan's land use carbon emissions (LUCE) was approached by taking land use structure into account. Subsequently, the spatiotemporal distribution of LUCE was evaluated by employing the carbon emission risk index and the Moran index. Finally, the multi-objective linear programming (MOP), the Markov chain, and the PLUS model were used to predict the spatial distribution of LUCC in 2030, including natural development scenarios (NDS) and low-carbon optimization development scenarios (LODS). According to the findings, the impervious surface is identified as the principal contributor to LUCE, while the forest is recognized as the principal absorbers of carbon. The carbon emissions in typical mountainous areas are distributed in cities and generally concentrate towards the plains in the northeast direction. Under the LODS, LUCE decrease significantly. For both NDS and LODS, the overall trend of land development direction in Yaan is “northeast-southwest” from 2020 to 2030. These results could provide some suggestions for low-carbon land use in cities like Yaan.