Monthly trends in under-5 malaria cases in Guinea: Comparative analysis between a seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) and a non-SMC health district

Abstract Background In Guinea, where malaria is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in children, seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) is deployed to prevent malaria transmission in children during the rainy season. However, the effect of this intervention remains under-documented. The aim of this study was to analyse monthly trends in malaria cases among under-5 children in Guinea. Methods This was a quasi-experimental study using routine data from the National Health Information System. The two districts (Mamou and Kindia) were selected to compare monthly trends in malaria cases in under-5 children from July to October, covering the years 2015 to 2020. Interrupted time series were used to estimate the effects of SMC. Results The implementation of the SMC contributed to a significant average reduction of 225 cases per month in the intervention district (95% CI -362 to -88; p = 0.002), compared with the control district. However, the effect of the SMC varied according to its monthly cycles. Conclusions This study suggests that the seasonal malaria chemoprevention should be extended to other health districts not yet covered, in order to accelerate the elimination of malaria in Guinea.