Evaluating Advanced Nuclear Fission Technologies for Future Decarbonized Power Grids
arxiv(2024)
摘要
In the coming decades, the United States aims to undergo an energy transition
away from fossil fuels and toward a fully decarbonized power grid. There are
many pathways that the US could pursue toward this objective, each of which
relies on different types of generating technologies to provide clean and
reliable electricity. One potential contributor to these pathways is advanced
nuclear fission, which encompasses various innovative nuclear reactor designs.
However, little is known about how cost-competitive these reactors would be
compared to other technologies, or about which aspects of their designs offer
the most value to a decarbonized power grid. We employ an electricity system
optimization model and a case study of a decarbonized U.S. Eastern
Interconnection circa 2050 to generate initial indicators of future economic
value for advanced reactors and the sensitivity of future value to various
design parameters, the availability of competing technologies, and the
underlying policy environment. These results can inform long-term cost targets
and guide near-term innovation priorities, investments, and reactor design
decisions. We find that advanced reactors should cost $5.1-$6.6/W to gain an
initial market share (assuming 30 year asset life and 3.5-6.5
while those that include thermal storage in their designs can cost up to
$5.5-$7.0/W (not including cost of storage). Since the marginal value of
advanced fission reactors declines as market penetration increases, break-even
costs fall around 19
GW. Additionally, policies that provide investment tax credits for nuclear
energy create the most favorable environment for advanced nuclear fission.
Stakeholders and investors should consider these findings when deciding which
technologies to consider for decarbonizing the US power grid.
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