Spatial–temporal Variation and Correlation Analysis of Ecosystem Service Values and Ecological Risks in Winter City Shenyang, China

Ecosystems in winter cities are complex and fragile, experiencing significant changes due to climate variations and human construction activities. Previous studies on the assessment of overall ecosystem service value (ESV) and ecological risk index (ERI) in winter cities are scarce. In this study, we constructed ESV and ERI measurement models using land use data in 2000, 2010, and 2020 using the improved value per unit area factor method and the landscape pattern index method, respectively, to reveal their spatial and temporal change characteristics. Geographic detectors were used to explore the driving roles of natural and artificial factors on the changes of ESV and ERI. The combination in ESV and ERI can then provide a more quantitative and accurate basis for policy decisions, identify priority areas for urban ecological restoration, and reduce the risk to ecosystems. The results of the study show that the total ESV of Shenyang city decreased from 273.97 x 108 CNY to 270.38 x 108 CNY during 2000-2020. Although the decrease is not large, the ESV changes structurally with the advancement of urbanization. During the 20 years, the construction land with the lowest ecological service function continues to expand, increasing by 354 km2, the grassland decreased by 215.9 km2, and the arable land decreased by 196.6 km2. The ecological service function of the water area is the strongest, with an increase of 51.3 km2 in the water area, ensuring that there is no significant decline in ESV. The size of the ERI is Very high, High, and Medium value zones remained relatively stable, while the size of the Very Low-value zone decreased by 12.78% and the size of the Low-value zone increased by 13.21%. The interaction factors that contributed most to the changes in ESV and ERI were annual evapotranspiration (EVP)/ Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Annual sunshine hours (SSD)/ Digital Elevation Model (DEM) , respectively. There was a spatial correlation between ESV and ERI. The areas with the highest ESV supply capacity and at the same time facing severe ecological risks to the landscape pattern are distributed in the northeastern hilly lands. This area should be prioritized to develop planning and control measures to prevent further erosion of forest lands and grasslands and reduce ecological risks. These results provide a theoretical basis for ensuring ecological security and sustainable development in winter cities.