Trends and projections in fall death in the Netherlands from 1990 to 2045

Background Increasing life expectancy in high-income countries has been linked to a rise in fall mortality. In the Netherlands, mortality rates from falls have increased gradually from the 1950s, with some indication of stabilisation in the 1990s. For population health and clinical practice, it is important to foresee the future fall mortality trajectories.Methods A graphical approach was used to explore trends in mortality by age, calendar period and cohorts born in the periods of 1915-1945. Population data and the numbers of people with accidental fall fatality as underlying cause of death from 1990 to 2021 were derived from Statistics Netherlands. Age-standardised mortality rates of unintentional falls per 100 000 population were calculated by year and sex. A log-linear model was used to examine the separate effects of age, period and cohort on the trend in mortality and to produce estimates of future numbers of fall deaths until 2045.Results While the total population increased by 17% between 1990 and 2021, absolute numbers of fall-related deaths rose by 230% (from 1584 to 5234), which was 251% (an increase of 576 deaths in 1990 to 2021 deaths in 2020) for men and 219% (from 1008 to 3213) for women. Age-standardised figures were higher for women than men and increased more over time. In 2020, 79% of those with death due to falls were over the age of 80, and 35% were 90 years or older. From 2020 to 2045, the observed and projected numbers of fall deaths were 2021 and 7073 for men (250% increase) and 3213 and 12 575 for women (291% increase).Conclusion Mortality due to falls has increased in the past decades and will continue to rise sharply, mainly caused by growing numbers of older adults, especially those in their 80s and 90s. Contributing risk factors are well known, implementation of preventive measures is a much needed next step. An effective approach to managing elderly people after falls is warranted to reduce crowding in the emergency care and reduce unnecessary long hospital stays.