Spatial-temporal Self-attention Network Based on Bayesian Optimization for Light Olefins Yields Prediction in Methanol-to-olefins Process

Methanol-to-olefins (MTO), as an alternative pathway for the synthesis of light olefins (ethylene and propylene), has gained extensive attention. Accurate prediction of light olefins yields can effectively facilitate process monitoring and optimization, as they are significant economic indexes and stable operation indicators of the industrial MTO process. However, the nonlinearity and dynamic interactions among process variables pose challenges for the prediction using traditional statistical methods. Additionally, physical-based methods relying on first-principle theory are always limited by an insufficient understanding of reaction mechanisms. In contrast, data-driven methods offer a viable solution for the prediction based solely on process data without requiring extensive process knowledge. Therefore, in this work, a data-driven approach that integrates spatial and temporal self-attention modules is proposed to capture complex interactions. Furthermore, Bayesian optimization is employed to determine the optimum hyperparameters and enhance the accuracy of the model. Studies on an actual MTO process demonstrate the superior prediction performance of the proposed model compared to baseline models. Specifically, 24 process variables are selected as the high-dimensional inputs, and yields of ethylene and propylene, as the low-dimensional outputs, are successfully predicted at various prediction horizons ranging from 2 to 8h.