Regional implementation of coastal erosion hazard zones for archaeological applications

Coastal archaeological heritage is in danger of being lost to coastal erosion, the risk of which is amplified by accelerating sea-level rise (SLR). In Aotearoa/New Zealand, coastal archaeological heritage is closely associated with indigenous ancestral communities, but our understanding of the spatiotemporal variability in coastal erosion risk for cultural heritage is limited. Coastal erosion hazard zones have typically been implemented to manage erosion risk to modern infrastructure at regional scales. In this study, we applied a hazard zone methodology in the context of coastal archaeological heritage for a selected region of Aotearoa (Te Tai Tokerau/Northland). Historical coastal change analyses reveal that most beaches in the region have been stable or slightly accretionary over the past ∼80 years, but a reversal of this trend is likely under the projected SLR, which is expressed in the coastal erosion hazard zones. Our analyses indicate that ∼8 % (155) of coastal archaeological sites in Te Tai Tokerau/Northland may be at risk of erosion with a relatively modest 20 cm of SLR, which is expected for the region by 2040, and ∼19 % (356) of sites are threatened by 1 m of SLR. Scenarios are presented that should assist a broad range of stakeholders to assess heritage risk and provide an opportunity for coastal managers to include heritage within adaptive planning pathways.