AKIMLpred: An interpretable machine learning model for predicting acute kidney injury within seven days in critically ill patients based on a prospective cohort study

Background Early recognition and timely intervention for AKI in critically ill patients were crucial to reduce morbidity and mortality. This study aimed to use biomarkers to construct a optimal machine learning model for early prediction of AKI in critically ill patients within seven days. Methods The prospective cohort study enrolled 929 patients altogether who were admitted in ICU including 680 patients in training set (Jiefang Campus) and 249 patients in external testing set (Binjiang Campus). After performing strict inclusion and exclusion criteria, 421 patients were selected in training set for constructing predictive model and 167 patients were selected in external testing for evaluating the predictive performance of resulting model. Urine and blood samples were collected for kidney injury associated biomarkers detection. Baseline clinical information and laboratory data of the study participants were collected. We determined the average prediction efficiency of six machine learning models through 10-fold cross validation. Results In total, 78 variables were collected when admission in ICU and 43 variables were statistically significant between AKI and non-AKI cohort. Then, 35 variables were selected as independent features for AKI by univariate logistic regression. Spearman correlation analysis was used to remove two highly correlated variables. Three ranking methods were used to explore the influence of 33 variables for further determining the best combination of variables. The gini importance ranking method was found to be applicable for variables filtering. The predictive performance of AKIMLpred which constructed by the XGBoost algorithm was the best among six machine learning models. When the AKIMLpred included the nine features (NGAL, IGFBP7, sCysC, CAF22, KIM-1, NT-proBNP, IL-6, IL-18 and L-FABP) with the highest influence ranking, its model had the best prediction performance, with an AUC of 0.881 and an accuracy of 0.815 in training set, similarly, with an AUC of 0.889 and an accuracy of 0.846 in validation set. Moreover, the performace was slightly outperformed in testing set with an AUC of 0.902 and an accuracy of 0.846. The SHAP algorithm was used to interpret the prediction results of AKIMLpred. The web-calculator of AKIMLpred was shown for predicting AKI with more convenient(https://www.xsmartanalysis.com/model/list/predict/model/html?mid=8065&symbol=11gk693982SU6AE1ms21). AKIMLpred was better than the optimal model built with only routine tests for predicting AKI in critically ill patients within 7 days. Conclusion The model AKIMLpred constructed by the XGBoost algorithm with selecting the nine most influential biomarkers in the gini importance ranking method had the best performance in predicting AKI in critically ill patients within 7 days. This data-driven predictive model will help clinicians to make quick and accurate diagnosis.