Abstract PO4-02-12: MDA iLobular Prognostic Tool: A Novel Approach for Risk Stratification in Invasive Lobular Carcinoma

Abstract Background: Invasive lobular carcinoma (ILC) is a distinct subtype of breast cancer that differs from the more common invasive ductal carcinoma (IDC) by its unique characteristics that influence prognosis. Recent studies have shown that ILC is associated with worse long-term outcomes compared to IDC. Risk stratification is essential in breast cancer for tailoring treatment plans to the individual patient’s needs, maximizing the chances of successful outcomes and minimizing unnecessary interventions. Although there are multiple tools available for breast cancer, there is currently not a risk stratification tool that is specific for ILC. The MDA iLobular prognostic tool is the first risk stratification tool that has been developed specifically for ILC patients. Methods: We retrospectively searched for patients treated at MD Anderson Cancer Center with a diagnosis of stage I-III ILC in our prospectively collected electronic database. The study focused on two primary endpoints: Overall Survival (OS) and Distant Recurrence Free Survival (DRFS). We utilized univariate and multivariate Cox Proportional Hazard (PH) regression models to assess the statistical significance of all variables. The univariate Cox analysis identified prognostic factors, which were further analyzed using backward and stepwise multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. This process helped identify statistically significant prognostic factors that were included in the final multivariate models. We estimated hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals for each factor, considering a P-value of < 0.05 as statistically significant. To evaluate the performance of the fitted multivariate Cox PH regression models for OS and DRFS, we randomly divided two-thirds of the data points into a training dataset, while the remaining one-third constituted the test dataset. We assessed the discrimination capacity of each model using Harrell's C-index. Results: The study included a total of 4,216 female patients, with a median age of 56 years. The median pathological tumor size was 2 mm, and the median number of lymph nodes was one. Among these patients, 1,376 were pre-menopausal, while 2,837 were post-menopausal. The training cohort was a subset of 2,950 patients and the test cohort was a subset of 1,266 patients. After evaluating various prognostic models, we identified the model with the highest prognostic accuracy for OS and DRFS. This selected model demonstrated a Harrell's C-index of 0.704 for OS and 0.718 for DRFS on the training dataset and a Harrell's C-index of 0.702 for OS and 0.671 for DRFS on the test dataset. The model incorporated several covariates, including age at the time of diagnosis, number of lymph nodes, pathological tumor size (mm), ER status, tumor grade, ILC histology, and the presence or absence of concomitant LCIS (Table 1). Conclusion: In conclusion, the MDA iLobular prognostic tool represents a significant advancement as the first dedicated tool for risk stratifying ILC, providing valuable guidance for tailoring therapy to individual ILC patients based on their specific risk profiles. Table 1. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard model parameter estimates for OS and DRFS Citation Format: Jason Mouabbi, Sarah Pasyar, Roland Bassett, Akshara Singareeka Raghavendra, Amy Hassan, Rachel Layman, Debu Tripathy. MDA iLobular Prognostic Tool: A Novel Approach for Risk Stratification in Invasive Lobular Carcinoma [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2023 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2023 Dec 5-9; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2024;84(9 Suppl):Abstract nr PO4-02-12.