Hysterectomy versus chemotherapy for low-risk non-metastatic gestational trophoblastic neoplasia (GTN): A cost-effectiveness analysis

Objective Determine the cost-effectiveness for hysterectomy versus standard of care single agent chemotherapy for low-risk gestational trophoblastic neoplasia (GTN). Methods A cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted comparing single agent chemotherapy with hysterectomy using decision analysis and Markov modeling from a healthcare payer perspective in Canada. The base case was a 40-year-old patient with low-risk non-metastatic GTN that completed childbearing. Outcomes were life years (LYs), quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), and adjusted 2022 costs (CAD). Discounting was 1.5% annually and the time horizon was the patient's lifetime. Model validation included face validity, deterministic sensitivity analyses, and scenario analysis. Results Mean costs for chemotherapy and hysterectomy arms were $34,507 and $17,363, respectively, while effectiveness measure were 30.37 QALYs and 31.04 LYs versus 30.14 QALYs and 30.82 Lys, respectively. The ICER was $74,526 (USD $54,516) per QALY. Thresholds favoring hysterectomy effectiveness were 30-day hysterectomy mortality below 0.2% and recurrence risk during surveillance above 9.2% (low-risk) and 33.4% (high-risk). Scenario analyses for Dactinomycin and Methotrexate led to similar results. Sensitivity analysis using tornado analysis found the cost to be most influenced by single agent chemotherapy cost and risk of resistance, number of weeks of chemotherapy, and probability of postoperative mortality. Conclusion Compared to hysterectomy, single agent chemotherapy as a first-line treatment costs $74,526 for each additional QALY gained. Given that this cost falls below the accepted $100,000 willingness-to-pay threshold and waitlist limitations within public healthcare systems, these results support the continued use of chemotherapy as standard of care approach for low-risk GTN.