Strategic Deployment of CCUS in China: Aiming for Carbon Neutrality in Key Industries

Abstract This study assesses China's CCUS deployment, pivotal for the nation's carbon neutrality by 2060 and transition to sustainable energy. It explores the social, economic, and industrial impacts, including job creation, product exports, and global CCUS market influence. The paper outlines critical goals for successful CCUS implementation, impacting China's future industrial competitiveness. We employed machine learning to analyze CO2 emissions data from China's power, iron and steel, cement, and oil and gas industries, supplemented by expert consultations. Our findings reveal significant emission characteristics: thermal power dominates the power industry's emissions, contributing over 50% to China's industrial total. The iron and steel sector accounts for over 60% of global emissions in its field, comprising 15-18% of China's emissions. Cement production, with a CO2 emission factor of 0.86, results in approximately 620 kg of CO2 per ton. The oil and gas sector, particularly petrochemicals, represents 9% of national emissions. These insights shape our analysis of the CCUS development pathway in these key sectors. Our analysis of carbon emissions and CCUS development in key Chinese industries, informed by expert consultation, leads to these conclusions: China's CCUS evolution follows three stages. The research, development, and demonstration phase (2020-2025) anticipates CCUS projects scaling to 15 Mt CO2/year. The industrial rollout phase (2025-2035) projects expansion to 50 Mt CO2/year. Full deployment (2035-2050) will see project sizes reaching 1500 Mt CO2/year, with significant milestones of 500 Mt in 2040 and 1500 Mt by 2050. Under an aggressive model, CCUS plays a crucial role in direct emission reductions, targeting 2.5 billion tonnes CO2 by 2050. Regional CCUS strategies align with each province's carbon peak goals, sequestration resources, and industrial structures. Aligned with China's 14th Five-Year Plan, our study underscores the strategic importance of CCUS technology, analyzing its potential and affordability in major sectors like electricity, iron and steel, cement, and oil and gas. We propose a CCUS deployment roadmap for China, detailing strategies for large-scale emission source retrofitting and industry-level source-sink matching. This forms the foundation for the Ministry of Science and Technology's planning of regional CCUS clusters.