Gene Expression Associated with Unfavorable Vaginal Bleeding in Women Using the Etonogestrel Subdermal Contraceptive Implant: a Prospective Study

To evaluate gene expression associated with unfavorable vaginal bleeding in users of the Etonogestrel (ENG) contraceptive implant. Prospective study involving 100 women who intended to use the ENG implant. Exclusion criteria included abnormal uterine bleeding, inability to attend a 1-year follow-up, and implant removal for reasons unrelated to vaginal bleeding or loss of follow-up. We obtained endometrial biopsies before implant placement and assessed the expression of 20 selected genes. Users maintained a uterine bleeding diary for 12 months post-implant placement. For statistical analysis, we categorized women into those with or without favorable vaginal bleeding at 3 and 12 months. Women with lower CXCL1 expression had a 6.8-fold increased risk of unfavorable vaginal bleeding at 3 months (OR 6.8, 95% CI 2.21–20.79, p < 0.001), while those with higher BCL6 and BMP6 expression had 6- and 5.1-fold increased risks, respectively. By the 12-month follow-up, women with lower CXCL1 expression had a 5.37-fold increased risk of unfavorable vaginal bleeding (OR 5.37, 95% CI 1.63–17.73, p = 0.006). Women with CXCL1 expression < 0.0675, BCL6 > 0.65, and BMP6 > 3.4 had a higher likelihood of experiencing unfavorable vaginal bleeding at 3 months, and CXCL1 < 0.158 at 12 months. Users of ENG contraceptive implants with elevated BCL6 and BMP6 expression exhibited a higher risk of breakthrough bleeding at the 3-month follow-up. Conversely, reduced CXCL1 expression was associated with an elevated risk of bleeding at both the 3 and 12-month follow-ups.