Development of a two-layer machine learning model for the forensic application of legal and illegal poppy classification based on sequence data

Poppies are beneficial plants with a variety of applications, including medicinal, edible, ornamental, and industrial purposes. Some Papaver species are forensically significant plants because they contain opium, a narcotic substance. Internationally trafficked species of illegal poppies are being identified by DNA barcoding employing multiple markers in response to their forensic value. However, effective markers for precise species identification of legal and illegal poppies are still under discussion, with research on illegal poppies focusing on Papaver somniferum L., and species identification studies of Papaver bracteatum and Papaver setigerum DC. still lacking. As a result, in order to evaluate the performance of genetic markers and classify their DNA sequences in the genus Papaver, this study developed the first machine learning-based two-layer model, in which the first layer classifies legal and illegal poppies from the given sequence and the second layer identifies species of illegal poppies using their sequences. We constructed the dataset and investigated biological features from four markers, internal transcribed spacer 1 (ITS1), internal transcribed spacer 2 (ITS2), transfer RNA Leucine (trnL), transfer RNA Leucine - transfer RNA Phenylalanine intergenic spacer (trnL–trnF intergenic spacer) and their combination, using four machine learning algorithms, K-nearest neighbor (KNN), Naïve Bayes (NB), extreme gradient boost (XGBoost) and Random Forest (RF). According to our findings, for Layer 1 to classify legal and illegal poppies, KNN-based models using combined ITS region achieved the greatest performance of accuracy 0.846 and 0.889 using training and test sets, respectively. Additionally, for Layer 2 to identify illegal poppy species, KNN-based models using combined ITS region achieved the best performance of 0.833 and 1.000 for using training and test sets, respectively. To validate the model, the combined ITS region, which includes ITS 1 and 2 sequences, from blind poppy samples were used as a case study, with the Layer 1 correctly classifying legal and illegal poppies with over 0.830 accuracy. Layer 2 correctly identified P. setigerum DC., however, only one of the three P. somniferum L. species was accurately identified. Nevertheless, our research shows that machine learning can be used to classify and identify legal and illegal poppy species using DNA barcodes which can then be used as an efficient and effective forensic tool for improved law enforcement and a safer society.