The Oncologic Burden of Residual Disease in Incidental Gallbladder Cancer: an Elastic Net Regression Model to Profile High-Risk Features

IntroductionIncidental Gallbladder Cancer (IGBC) following cholecystectomy constitutes a significant portion of gallbladder cancer diagnoses. Re-exploration is advocated to optimize disease clearance and enhance survival rates. The consistent association of residual disease (RD) with inferior oncologic outcomes prompts a critical examination of re-resection's role as a modifying factor in the natural history of IGBC.MethodsAll patients diagnosed with gallbladder cancer between 2012 and 2022 were included. An elastic net regularized regression model was employed to profile high-risk predictors of RD within the IGBC group. Survival outcomes were assessed based on resection margins and RD.ResultsAmong the 181 patients undergoing re-exploration for IGBC, 133 (73.5 %) harbored RD, while 48 (26.5 %) showed no evidence. The elastic net model, utilizing a selected λ = 0.029, identified six coefficients associated with the risk of RD: aspiration from cholecystectomy (0.141), hepatic tumor origin (1.852), time to re-exploration >8 weeks (1.879), positive margin status (2.575), higher T stage (1.473), and poorly differentiated tumors (2.241). Furthermore, the study revealed a median overall survival of 44 months (CI 38–60) for IGBC patients with no evidence of RD, compared to 31 months (23–42) for those with RD (p < 0.001).ConclusionRe-resection revealed a high incidence of RD (73.5 %), significantly correlating with poorer survival outcomes. The preoperative identification of high-risk features provides a reliable biological disease profile. This aids in strategic preselection of patients who may benefit from re-resection, underscoring the need to consolidate outcomes with tailored chemotherapy for those with unfavorable characteristics.