Plant pests and diseases pose a major global threat to food security and agricultural sustainability, making accurate assessment of plant symptoms important. This study proposes a simple and practical method for quantifying visual symptom severity using binary deep learning classifiers trained only on asymptomatic and severely affected images. Visual symptom severity was estimated from class probabilities, and classification accuracy is additionally used when image groups with similar symptom severity are available. While the framework enables symptom severity quantification at the group level, direct application to individual images is challenging due to overconfident predictions for mildly symptomatic cases. To address this issue, temperature scaling and label smoothing were evaluated, and label smoothing was found to improve reliability for individual image assessment. The method was validated using mosaic and wilting symptoms across multiple architectures. Results showed close agreement in classification accuracy and class probabilities across architectures, with maximum differences of 4.8% (mosaic) and 9.7% (wilting). The estimated visual symptom severity was generally consistent with expert visual assessment under the conditions examined in this study. The proposed method requires only minimal annotation and uses standard model outputs, making it simple, interpretable, and potentially applicable to other visually assessed traits.
The mammary circulatory system supports mammary growth and lactation by supplying oxygen and nutrients. Insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF1) is essential for mammary gland development, yet its involvement in angiogenic regulation remains unclear. This study investigated whether IGF1 stimulates vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) production in mammary epithelial cells and explored the underlying signaling pathways. IGF1 increased VEGF mRNA expression in a bovine mammary epithelial cell line and in HC11 cells, and enhanced VEGF promoter activity and secretion in HC11 cells in a dose-dependent manner. Conditioned medium from IGF1-stimulated HC11 cells promoted tube formation in HUVECs, which was attenuated by a VEGFR inhibitor. IGF1 rapidly induced ERK1/2 and Akt phosphorylation, and inhibitors of these pathways suppressed VEGF secretion. These findings suggest that IGF1 upregulates VEGF via the MEK-ERK1/2 and PI3K-Akt pathways, thereby promoting mammary angiogenesis and contributing to mammary gland development and lactation efficiency.
Abstract Warming has lengthened the potential growing season at high latitudes while accelerating crop development, widening the "blank period" between harvest and winter. In face of this opportunity for double cropping - cultivating a second "encore" crop, farmers must decide whether the expected benefit justifies the risk of crop failure. This study evaluates the skill and economic value of seasonal ensemble forecasts for double cropping, using winter wheat-buckwheat cultivation in northern Japan. Feasibility was defined as buckwheat reaching maturity, assessed using growing degree-days. Double cropping has become increasingly feasible: 72-93% of analyzed municipalities were feasible during the 2023-2025 heatwaves. Three forecasting methods were compared: a climatological baseline, an ECMWF SEAS5 ensemble-based method, and a history-based method. Forecast skill was assessed via Brier skill score and reliability diagrams, and economic value through a cost-loss decision framework incorporating cultivation costs, revenue, and a late-procurement penalty. The ensemble-based method outperformed both alternatives, with skill rising above baseline from April-May, about three months before buckwheat sowing. For standard buckwheat cultivars, its economic value increased from 1,064 yen ha -1 in March to 11,426 yen ha -1 in July without a procurement penalty, and remained positive under a 10% monthly cost penalty. While early-maturing cultivars would raise profits by expanding double-cropping opportunity, the ensemble-based method was most valuable for late-maturing cultivars, capturing rare feasible years - indicating complementary roles of breeding and forecasting. Combining existing forecast products with a simple temperature-driven crop development model, the framework is readily transferable to other high-latitude regions where warming is setting the stage for an encore.
