The Narodowy Bank Polski (pronounced [narɔdɔvɨ bank pɔlski]; the National Bank of Poland), often abbreviated to NBP, is the central bank of Poland, founded in 1945. It controls the issuing of Poland's currency, the Polish złoty. The Bank is headquartered in Warsaw, and has branches in 16 major Polish cities. The NBP represents Poland in the European System of Central Banks, an EU organization.
Our study presents a comparison of the results of several methods of including mixed income in the measurement of the labor share based for Poland in the period 2000-2021. We account for the heterogeneity of labor input in the measurement of labor share. Moreover, we introduce an original method, accounting for heterogeneity of labor tax rates between employed and self-employed. All the methods considered are consistent with the national accounts. We apply the labor share measurement methods for Poland, an emerging economy with a particularity high prevalence of self-employment. We show that the corrections of the payroll labor share are substantial and range from 8 to 13 pp. None of the methods applied show a remarkable downward trend in labor share, frequently found in the advanced countries. Instead, labor share in Poland declines clearly up to 2004, but then rises by about 2-5 pp. by the end of 2021. There are diverse patterns on a sectoral level - downward tendencies of labor share in manufacturing and other industries, and increasing tendencies in services. A shift-share analysis shows that the overall change of labor share is mainly due to within industry changes. A positive contribution to labor share of a rising importance of services is neutralized by a negative reallocation effect.
We study the distributional consequences of the recent inflationary surge and the subsequent monetary policy response in the euro area. Using an estimated two-asset Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian model with an overlapping generations structure, we analyze the macroeconomic shocks driving inflation between 2021 and 2022. We find that these shocks generated substantial redistribution from young and poor households toward older and wealthier ones. By keeping interest rates unchanged until mid-2022, monetary policy largely offset these distributional effects. A policy response based solely on a standard Taylor rule would have failed to mitigate the redistribution.
In this research note I propose a simple yet novel method to decompose changes in the credit-to-GDP ratio. Instead of modelling or filtering the credit-to-GDP ratio directly, I make a historical decomposition of the components of the ratio. I use Bayesian structural vector autoregressive models identified with sign and zero restrictions. Then, I make a historical decomposition of the credit-to-GDP ratio based on the decompositions of its components. I apply the method to data for Poland. I find that between 64 and 70% of (the explainable part of) the decrease in the credit-to-GDP ratio in Poland after the COVID-19 pandemic can be attributed to shocks affecting mainly demand for credit, while credit supply shocks made up the remaining 30-36% of the decrease.
We investigate whether the transmission of monetary shocks in Poland depends on the level of economic slack. To this end, we estimate smooth transition panel local projections using Poland's regional data and analyze how monetary shocks affect unemployment and prices in regimes of high and low unemployment. Our key finding aligns with economic intuition: the response of unemployment to monetary policy shocks is stronger when economic slack is high, compared to when it is low. Conversely, the adjustment of prices to monetary innovations is more pronounced when idle resources in the economy are scarce, compared to when they are abundant. Our main conclusion is further supported by evidence showing that the difference in the strength of the employment response to monetary shocks, depending on the unemployment level, is more pronounced in sectors producing non-tradable goods than in those manufacturing tradable goods. Moreover, comparing our model with its linear counterpart confirms that monetary transmission in Poland indeed exhibits state-dependence, while the analysis of monetary shock distributions under low and high unemployment shows that our results are not driven by the presence of a regime-dependent pattern in monetary disturbances.
Nominal rigidities play a central role in monetary policy transmission, shaping how inflation and real activity respond to various shocks. Using a large longitudinal dataset of granular price datafor Poland covering 2000–2024, we contribute to the literature on price stickiness across several dimensions. First, we document the price-setting behaviour in Poland. Second, we show how theprocess was affected by the turbulent post-COVID-19 period and Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, evaluating the importance of the intensive and extensive margins of price adjustments.Third, we distinguish between sticky and flexible sectors, revealing heterogeneity in prices response to economic variables and shocks. We also compare the price-setting process in Polandwith those in the euro area and the US. Finally, we complement these analyses with simulations performed on a two-sector DSGE model. Overall, we provide new, comprehensive evidence onprice rigidity and discuss its implications for monetary policy transmission.
