The geometry and ventilation of upper deep-water masses in the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean are critical to glacial carbon storage, yet their evolution since the Last Glacial Maximum remains poorly constrained. Here, we present the foraminiferal neodymium isotope composition (εNd) from core MD97-2115 (eastern Chatham Rise, 2160 m water depth), which is located at the present-day boundary between Upper Circumpolar Deep Water (UCDW) and modified North Pacific Deep Water (mNPDW) in the Southwest Pacific, to reconstruct the upper deep-water mass changes since 30 ka. Combining quantitative binary mixing calculations with vertical εNd gradients relative to Lower Circumpolar Deep Water, we suggest substantial shifts in the geometry and mixing of UCDW and mNPDW since 30 ka. The variation phases include reduced UCDW influence during 30–20 ka, enhanced UCDW contribution between 20 and 14.3 ka, slightly decreased UCDW during 14.3–11.4 ka, and stable Holocene conditions. The glacial dominance of mNPDW is consistent with basin-wide evidence for enhanced storage of respired carbon in Pacific-sourced deep waters, likely contributing to the maintenance of low atmospheric CO2 during the glacial period. Crucially, the early rapid increase in UCDW at ∼20 ka preceded the penetration of North Atlantic-sourced water into Southern Ocean and the deglacial CO2 increase by several millennia, implying a critical role for Antarctic and Southern Ocean processes in establishing the oceanic precondition for glacial termination. During the last deglacial period, the decoupling between our reconstruction and atmospheric CO2 evolution suggests that water-mass geometry alone is insufficient to drive the full deglacial CO2 increase, pointing to additional roles for processes such as regional outgassing and variability in air–sea gas exchange efficiency.
We estimate productivity spillovers from Japanese cotton-spinning firms in China (known as Zaikabo,"(sic)(sic)(sic)") to local Chinese cotton-spinning mills based on plant-level data for 1925 to 1938. In order to capture the important role of distance in facilitating such spillovers we geo-localised the plants. Our results provide clear evidence for positive spillovers from Zaikabo to local Chinese mills, which go hand-in-hand with an upgrade in production technology towards greater use of capital. Spillovers are very localised, being strongest within a radius of up to 10 km around the Zaikabo and particularly strong for mills in Shanghai. Exploiting information on the workforce composition of the Japanese affiliates, we find suggestive evidence of a skilled-labour channel: spillovers tend to be larger from Zaikabo employing higher shares of skilled labour. We also find some evidence in line with the idea that these gains are larger for Chinese mills with higher initial productivity, consistent with a role for absorptive capacity. Our paper is the first to document FDI productivity spillovers in a historical context and to characterise the channels through which they operate.
This paper examines whether local exposure to extreme weather affects support for national climate and energy policies in Switzerland. We construct a municipality-referendum panel linking high-resolution MeteoSwiss data on extreme heat and intense precipitation to municipal voting outcomes in federal referenda. Using a staggered difference-in-differences design and Callaway–Sant’Anna event-study estimators, we compare municipalities first exposed to extreme weather shocks with not-yet-treated municipalities. The results provide little evidence that extreme weather increases support for environmental policy. If anything, the estimates point in the opposite direction: in selected rainfall specifications, environmental yes-shares decline by around 2.7–2.8 percentage points after extreme shocks. These estimates are based on small, geographically concentrated treated cohorts and should therefore be interpreted as cohort-specific. The findings are consistent with the view that salient local shocks may reduce willingness to support costly environmental policies, rather than producing experience-based updating in favor of climate action.
This is a short review of the current status of the Standard Model calculation of the Muon g−2, based on the recently published White Paper. After a brief summary of the theoretically very well determined QED and electroweak contributions, the review focuses on the two main hadronic contributions, the vacuum polarization (HVP) and the light-by-light (HLbL), both for what concerns the lattice as well as the dispersive, data-driven determinations. In view of discrepancies in the data sets used for the dispersive determination of the HVP, the final theoretical value of the Muon g−2 in the SM is based on the lattice value for the HVP contribution and an average of the lattice and dispersive determinations for the HLbL contribution. The review ends with a brief outlook on how to address two urgent challenges: (i) reduce the theory uncertainty by a factor four to match the experimental one; (ii) resolve the current puzzles affecting data-driven determinations of the HVP contribution.
Background Implementation and long-term persistence of guideline-directed medical therapy (GDMT) following ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) remain suboptimal. We assessed the implementation and persistence of four-class GDMT after STEMI and its association with outcomes. Methods We performed a patient-level pooled analysis of three randomised trials of patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention for STEMI. GDMT was defined by the number of drug classes prescribed (0–4). External validation was conducted using a real-world PCI registry. Findings The study included 2270 patients from the randomised trials and 5643 from a real-world PCI registry. More than two-thirds of patients received all four GDMT classes at discharge (ranging from 66.9% [398/595] to 83.5% [339/406]), but this proportion declined over 5 years (ranging from 40.5% [408/1008] to 53.1% [276/520]). In exploratory analyses, higher GDMT class at discharge was associated with a lower risk of the composite of cardiovascular death, stroke, or myocardial infarction at 5 years (adjusted HR [95% CI] for class 4 versus 0–2: 0.49 [0.33–0.72]; class 3 versus 0–2: 0.49 [0.28–0.85]). In a time-dependent analysis, higher GDMT class during follow-up was associated with a lower risk of the composite outcome (adjusted IRR [95% CI] for class 4 versus 0–2: 0.71 [0.52–0.95]; class 3 versus 0–2: 0.59 [0.41–0.86]). Similar longitudinal patterns were observed in the real-world PCI registry. Interpretation Although the majority of patients received all four GDMT classes at discharge after STEMI, this proportion declined during long-term follow-up. In exploratory analyses, higher GDMT class was associated with a lower risk of cardiovascular events. Funding No specific funding was received for the present study. Funding for the individual trials and registry is reported in the Acknowledgements.
