Interpretation of psychological assessments using actuarial risk tools varies according to risk level and communication format. However, previous research in this area has widely neglected the fact that decision makers' probability judgments often exceed empirically observed recidivism rates derived from follow-up studies. Thus, the current studies investigated the additional effect of base rate information on the estimation of risk including laypeople (n = 283, 68% female, M = 24 years old) and expert witnesses (n = 62, 76% female, M = 42 years old). Results largely replicate findings of previous research regarding the effects of risk level and communication format. Both groups provided estimates substantially higher than expected official recidivism rates (laypeople: M = 56.7%, experts: M = 28.1% vs. empirical base rate of 10%). Providing base rates reduced this discrepancy by 12% points (Cohen's d = 0.43) for laypeople and 7% points (d = 0.42) for experts. Additional analyses indicated that experts specializing in risk assessment produced estimates closer to follow-up benchmarks than those focusing on other forensic tasks. Years of professional experience among expert witnesses were positively associated with larger discrepancies between estimates and follow-up rates. These findings underscore the importance of incorporating base rate information to anchor risk judgments in empirically established benchmarks. Communication format had, at most, a minimal impact on risk estimates, whereas providing base rate information meaningfully reduced discrepancies between estimates and follow-up benchmarks in both lay and expert samples. We recommend reporting empirically grounded base rates alongside any chosen communication format.
Using a sample of 145 men convicted for sexually assaulting a woman, we examined perceived risks and difficulties in the context of noncompleted and completed sexual offences against women to help further understand the decision-making process of individuals who commit those crimes and offer complementary insights from a prevention point of view. The participants were 29 years old on average. We looked at the individual’s accounts of their offending. First and foremost, the dominating response in regards to high ratings of difficulties in noncompleted offences was woman resistance. Second, intoxication was reported by participants to justify both high risk and the absence of risk during their offending. Third, participants who perceived no risk and completed a sexual offence against a woman further indicated, in almost half the cases, that they thought (or assumed) the woman had given her consent initially. Fourth, very few participants referred to environmental conditions when assessing the risks and difficulties of committing an offence. Lastly, the results are discussed in light of considerations for crime prevention.
The use of medication to manage problematic sexual arousal among individuals convicted of sexual offences is still an understudied treatment option in the U.K. Because of this, our knowledge of the medication service is limited to nomothetic analyses of pre- and post-treatment effectiveness, and qualitative analyses of the lived experiences of people taking the medication. This paper contributes a novel perspective on the service by using service-level data to chart the treatment pathways of all service users (N = 139) who have received this medication at the first evaluation site. Using a rigorous process of data triangulation and inter-rater reliability checking, we identified six distinct treatment pathways based on initial drug classes, changes in dosage or drug class, and the (dis)continuation of medication. Each pathway is associated with positive changes in indices of problematic sexual arousal, while highlighting the nuance within service user journeys. In conducting this exercise, we have also produced a framework for ethical client centered prescribing that considers both clinical effectiveness and service user experiences to help clinicians make decisions that are likely to yield both positive clinical outcomes and long-term medication adherence among service users.
To date, there is no reliable and valid screening tool for paraphilic disorders (PDs) based on the diagnostic criteria of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-11). The present study aimed to develop and cross-culturally examine the cross-cultural applicability of a new screening tool for PDs following the ICD-11 guidelines. METHODS:Top-down item development was conducted with expert practitioners in the field. Data were collected in 26 languages across 42 countries (N = 82,243; 39.5% men; 57.0% women; 3.4% gender-diverse; Mage = 32.39 years, SD = 12.52). Cut-off scores were established per ICD-11 guidelines, and at-risk groups were compared with low-risk groups along theoretically relevant correlates (e.g., depression, anxiety). OUTCOMES:The Paraphilic Disorders Short Screen (PDSS) assesses seven paraphilias via 21 items. RESULTS:Voyeurism was most common paraphilic interest (PI) (19.42% of the total sample; n = 15,970), which also had the highest number of participants meeting the ICD-11 diagnostic cut-off (3.24%; n = 2,662). PI and PD groups consistently demonstrated more severe depression and anxiety symptoms than others. CONCLUSION:The PDSS is a reliable and valid screening tool that follows the latest ICD-11 guidelines; therefore, it has the capacity to enhance clinical practice and research by identifying individuals at risk.
Sexual interest in children is an important risk factor for sexual (re)offending against children. We aimed to consolidate the validity and reliability of the Explicit and Implicit Sexual Interest Profile (EISIP), which combines self-report, viewing time (VT) measures, and Implicit Association Tests (IATs) to assess sexual interest in children. To further examine EISIP validity, several ways to score the VT task were investigated. The EISIP produced mostly acceptable validity (r > .30) and reliability (ρ > .70) indices. Only minimal differences between the scoring methods underlined the robustness of the VT measure. We additionally compared the sexual interest of the N = 516 men based on their offenses: using child sexual abuse material (CSAM), contact offenses against extrafamilial or intrafamilial children, mixed offenses, and other offenses. Men with mixed offenses had the highest indications of sexual interest in children, while participants with intrafamilial or other offenses had the lowest. Individuals with CSAM convictions had lower scores than originally expected and composed a heterogenic subgroup. Explorative analyses additionally indicated group differences regarding antisociality. Our results support the distinction of people convicted of sexual offenses against children into subtypes. The need for further differentiations (i.e., in the CSAM group) is discussed.
Research on individuals convicted of sexual crimes has focused mainly on risk factors and recidivism. Less attention has been given to how these individuals construct meaning around their life trajectories. This qualitative study explores and compares the life narratives of men and women convicted of sexual crimes. Semi-structured life story interviews were conducted with 11 incarcerated individuals: 4 women and 7 men. Data were analyzed using narrative analysis. Five central narrative themes emerged across participants: family, reclusion, intimate relationships, crime, and substance abuse. Participants described adverse family experiences, relational instability, and ambivalent perceptions of imprisonment. Narratives also revealed a tendency to minimize or avoid direct discussion of sexual offending, while constructing a positive and prosocial self-image oriented toward change and reintegration. Gender differences were observed in identity construction and life trajectories. These findings underscore the importance of narrative identity in understanding individuals convicted of sexual crimes. The results highlight the need for gender-sensitive, narrative-informed assessment and intervention. Integrating individuals' dominant narratives into rehabilitation may help reconstruct identity, improve responsiveness to treatment, and support more effective reintegration.
The present study provides normative data for the Child Pornography Offender Risk Tool (CPORT) by aggregating individual-level data from six routine samples (N = 956) across Canada, Europe, and the United Kingdom. All cases were men adjudicated for child sexual abuse and exploitation material (CSAEM) offenses. Meta-analyses revealed stable predictive accuracy for the CPORT across studies (AUCs = .728 and .713, respectively, for any sexual recidivism and for CSAEM-specific recidivism). Estimated recidivism rates increased with CPORT scores, ranging from 3% to 41% for any sexual reoffending and from 2% to 32% for CSAEM-specific reoffending. Risk ratios indicated that individuals with a CPORT score of 5 reoffended at approximately five times the rate of those with the median score (CPORT = 2), with even higher rates observed among those scoring 6. Percentile norms were also derived, with a median CPORT score of 2 corresponding to the 64th percentile in terms of risk for sexual recidivism. These CPORT norms can help facilitate improved risk communication and align practice with the Risk-Need-Responsivity (RNR) model.
Online child sexual exploitation and abuse (OCSEA) is a complex and multifaceted form of offending that continues to increase in prevalence. Our understanding of OCSEA is challenged by evolving technologies, low rates of detection, and limited understanding of the aetiological pathways to engaging in this behaviour. The current study aimed to deepen our understanding of the aetiology of OCSEA through qualitatively exploring the lived experiences of nine men referred to New Zealand community treatment providers for OCSEA behaviours. Using Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis, men's life stories were examined across the lifespan, including childhood, pre-offending, offending, and post-offending timeframes. Five superordinate themes were developed. These described the impact of the men's developmental environment on their understanding of healthy relationships; the desire for connection and feelings of not belonging; difficulties in coping with negative emotions; escalation of both legal and illegal sexual behaviours; and factors associated with ceasing offending. The application of findings to the prevention of OCSEA are considered and directions for future research are discussed.
This study examined the associations between paternal substance abuse (PSA), child sexual exploitation (CSE), and child emotional dysregulation (CED), with caregiver neglect (CN) as a mediator and child gender included as a control variable. Guided by Ecological Systems Theory, Attachment Theory, and Trauma Theory, the research was conducted in urban slums of Lahore, Pakistan. Data were collected from 738 male and female children aged 10-18 years who were directly exposed to paternal substance abuse. Structural equation modelling (SEM) indicated that PSA was significantly associated with both CSE and CED and was strongly linked to CN. CN significantly predicted both forms of child vulnerability and mediated the relationships between PSA and these outcomes. Additionally, when gender was statistically controlled, only negligible changes were observed in the magnitude of the relationships, while all paths remained significant and consistent in direction, indicating the robustness of the model. These findings highlight the need for integrated interventions addressing paternal substance abuse, parenting support, and child protection systems, particularly in high-risk urban slum communities.
Child sexual abuse perpetration prevention programs have been implemented in several Global North countries. There is limited research on how to best advertise these programs to attract eligible participants while ensuring public support for such programs, as well as participant characteristics that impact receptiveness to this advertising. The present study explored the effect of advertisement message framing and personal characteristics on support for a hypothetical perpetration prevention program. A partially representative sample of Canadian adults (N = 1,487; 50.3% female) completed an online survey and were randomized to one of three mock advertisements that varied in message framing (risk reduction, wellbeing enhancement, or a combination of both). Participants rated how much they supported the program and provided data about demographic characteristics, personality traits, and their attitudes and beliefs. There were high levels of support for the program, though the messaging frame had no effect on this outcome. Several characteristics including personality traits, political orientation, stigmatizing attitudes, and perceptions of crime control effectiveness were associated with program support. The findings suggest that perpetration prevention programs can advertise their services in a way that emphasizes risk reduction and/or wellbeing without risking public support, and there may be opportunity to increase program support by considering key characteristics of target audiences.
The Correlates of Admission of Sexual Interest in Children (CASIC) is a six-item proxy measure of sexual interest in children in individuals involved with child sexual exploitation material (CSEM) based on behavioral characteristics. Originally developed to replace the sexual interest item of the Child Pornography Offender Risk Tool (CPORT) when information is missing, some evidence suggests that the CASIC may also be useful for broader risk assessment purposes. This study examined the ability of the CASIC to identify CSEM recidivism among individuals with a history of CSEM offenses. In a sample of 126 individuals incarcerated for CSEM offenses and released from the Austrian prison system between 2002 and 2019, the CASIC total score was associated with CSEM recidivism (Harrell's C = .75, 95% CI [.63, .87]). This association remained consistent in a subsample with fixed 5-year follow-up periods (n = 103, AUC = .77, 95% CI [.64, .89]). Our findings highlight the ability of the CASIC to reliably assess sexual interest in children as a risk factor for CSEM offending, which may support risk management and treatment planning.
Sextortion is a form of digitally facilitated sexual abuse that causes severe psychological, financial, and social harm, particularly to minors and marginalized adults. This study presents the first quantitative typology of people who commit sextortion, based on a clustering analysis of 111 U.S. judicial cases. Four distinct subtypes of offenders were identified: adult-focused financial sextortion; minor-focused CSAM-related sextortion; technologically sophisticated coercion of minors, sometimes resulting in fatal outcomes; and adult-focused hybrid sextortion that escalates from online manipulation to in-person exploitation. These subtypes differ in motivation, technical capacity, victim profiles, and sentencing outcomes, with the most technologically advanced group paradoxically receiving more lenient sentences. Overall, the findings extend existing typologies and highlight the need for differentiated investigative, prosecutorial, and policy responses to address the varied tactics and harms of sextortion.
Standardized risk assessments are essential to evidence-based responses to criminal behaviour, including sexual offending. Since the 1990s, many actuarial and structured risk assessment instruments have been developed that are now routinely used in sentencing, treatment, and post-release risk management. The majority of these scales, however, were developed using undifferentiated groups, raising questions about their utility within meaningful subgroups, such as persons with low intellectual ability. This study presents meta-analytic findings of the predictive accuracy (discrimination) of risk tools for crime and violence when used with men with low intellectual ability and a history of sexual offending. We also examined age as a recidivism risk predictor. Database searches identified 15 distinct samples (N = 923). Age, as a single variable, showed moderate to large effects for sexual, violent, and general (any) recidivism. Overall, the predictive accuracies of the instruments were moderate and similar to those observed for other samples. Amongst the measures investigated, a measure specifically for persons with low intellectual ability (ARMIDILO-S; Boer et al., 2013) demonstrated the highest predictive accuracy. Larger effects were found when recidivism was measured by staff reports than by official records (e.g., charges, convictions). Our findings support the use of existing risk tools with men with low intellectual ability. Researchers should privilege staff reports over official records of recidivism for studies concerned with sexual recidivism.
The offending trajectories of those who begin sexually offending in adulthood are poorly understood. The present study examines offending trajectories between the ages of 18 and 60 of 520 adult-onset men who were assessed at a sexual behavior clinic between 1995 and 2006. Using group-based trajectory modeling, a four-group trajectory model was retained to account for heterogeneity in the sample. The trajectories were compared on criminal career parameters (e.g., individual court contacts), victim number, and indicators of sexual interest in children (e.g., phallometric results). A trajectory with an escalating pattern of offending which onset in early adulthood was found to be associated with all three indicators of sexual interest in children and a high frequency of sexual offending. The findings of this study underscore the heterogeneity of adult-onset sexual offending, reinforcing the improbability that a one-size-fits-all approach for those who sexually offend against children would be effective.
Victim age polymorphism describes a pattern of sexual offending in which individuals target victims from multiple distinct age categories (e.g., both child and adult victims). Research on victim age polymorphism and its association with risk-related domains - namely atypical sexuality and antisociality - and recidivism is mixed, potentially due to methodological differences across studies (e.g., how victim age is classified). This meta-analysis (k = 23, N = 12,333) examined associations between victim age polymorphism, the two main risk-related domains (atypical sexuality, antisociality), and recidivism. Meta-regression and the between-level Q statistic were used to examine various methodological differences that might contribute to disparate findings. Results indicated that victim age polymorphism was associated with multiple paraphilias, psychopathy, and recidivism. Moderator analyses were limited due to the small number of studies and did not consistently explain the variation in effect sizes. Overall, individuals who are polymorphic share more clinically relevant similarities to individuals who offend exclusively against adults than those who exclusively offend against children. These findings suggest that a greater focus on generalist criminogenic needs (e.g., antisociality) may be warranted in the management of individuals who are polymorphic.
Techniques aimed at modifying or managing paraphilic sexual interests have been a mainstay of many sexual offending treatment programs internationally for a number of decades, based largely on behavioral traditions. However, research interest and innovation with regard to these techniques has notably stagnated over time. The current narrative review aimed to explore arousal management techniques used in contemporary rehabilitative practice, to consider current evidence regarding the effectiveness of such methods, as well as to overview available guidance regarding the suitability of therapeutic applications of the techniques with different populations of those who have been apprehended for perpetrating sexual offenses. Overall conclusions support the inclusion of some form of arousal modification and management targets in programs for selected individuals, largely based on recent meta-analytic findings regarding the effectiveness of relevant techniques in reducing paraphilic interest, as well as their empirical association with reduced sexual reoffending. The need for fresh research in this area is also highlighted.
Research regarding community re-entry of individuals with sexual offending histories (SOH) has focused on preventing sexual re-offending through surveillance and support interventions. However, most individuals with SOH, serving shorter incarceration sentences, often lack surveillance and support upon community re-entry. This is especially concerning for young adults with SOH as they often are subjected to a negative social reaction in addition to having psychosocial needs and a high level of risk and criminogenic needs, which might result in not receiving tailored interventions, and therefore re-entering the community in a precarious context. Using prospective longitudinal data from a cohort of 1,054 young adults sentenced to shorter incarceration terms in Quebec, Cox regressions were conducted to determine whether there were contextual factors conducive to re-incarceration specific to individuals with SOH ( n = 69). Findings indicate that there were none specific to individuals with SOH, and rather that persons with and without SOH are similar in many aspects, notably the high re-incarceration rate. These observations raise questions about the context surrounding community re-entry of young adults, regardless of criminal histories. Implications are discussed in the light of the low-risk assumption among individuals sentenced to shorter incarceration terms and the scope of community risk management.
In the field of child sexual abuse prevention, there is a need for risk assessment tools that are time-sensitive and can predict an individual's risk of acting on sexual urges, whether this is watching child sexual abuse material (CSAM), interacting socially with a child for sexual purposes, or committing sexual abuse. We evaluated the predictive ability of the Sexual Child Molestation Risk Assessment (SChiMRA+), a self-report scale that assesses current motivation to act on sexual urges toward children (Part A) and captures past-week sexual behaviors toward children (Part B). Longitudinal data from two clinical trials aiming to reduce sexual behaviors toward children were analyzed; Priotab (testosterone-lowering medication; n = 52 men with pedophilic disorder; pseudonymized) and Prevent It (internet-delivered cognitive behavioral therapy; n = 160 active CSAM users; anonymous). A ROC analysis identified an optimal cutoff of 4.5 on Part A for indicating a clinically significant heightened risk for sexually abusive acts (same week: specificity 63.7%, sensitivity 83.7%, AUC = .802; next week: specificity 53.1%, sensitivity 83.0%, AUC = .727). These results indicate that SChiMRA+ part A can be used to identify increased risk for future offending behavior as well as probable ongoing CSAM use among self-identified help-seekers.
Despite generally low rates of sexual offenses among Minor attracted persons (MAPs) and their high desire not to engage in such acts, concerns about the possibility of offending remain significant for some individuals within this population. Consequently, how MAPs deal with this fear is an important question that needs to be addressed. In this study, 299 male MAPs were recruited online to examine how the reliance on different coping strategies impacts their fear of engaging in sexual behaviors with minors. In study 1, binary logistic regression analyses revealed that waiting for the fear to pass on its own, substance use, and masturbation to sexual fantasies involving children are associated with the fear of offending. Impulsivity also played a role in heightening the fear of offending. In study 2, latent class analysis of the intensity of sexual fantasies identified three groups. In each of these three groups, the association between hypersexuality and participants' fear of engaging in sexual behaviors with minors was analyzed. Results indicated that MAPs with the highest intensity and diversity of sexual fantasies were the most susceptible to not only fear of engaging in sexual behaviors with minors but also, to rely on inappropriate coping strategies. These findings highlight the necessity of understanding sexual attraction toward minors within a broader context of polymorphic sexual interests.
This study examined dynamics of childhood sexual image abuse episodes prior to age 18, based on victim self-reports. An online sample of individuals aged 18-28 filled out a survey, yielding 3,254 episodes of image abuse that occurred prior to age 18. The majority (86%) of abusive episodes involved images that were produced by youth, either as victims or perpetrators. Less than 8% of episodes involved adult-produced images. Youth were identified as perpetrators in 30% of the episodes, and adults were perpetrators in 29%, with the remainder unidentified. Notably, even among adult-perpetrated episodes, 75% of the images had been originally produced by the youth victim. In cases of adult perpetrators, 59% were offline acquaintances. To better understand the diversity of image abuse experiences, we proposed a five-category framework. Adult perpetrator cases were subdivided into (1) adult image producers, (2) adult coercers of youth made images and (3) adult groomers of youth made images. Youth perpetrator cases were subdivided into (4) juvenile coercers, who pressured victims, and (5) juvenile betrayers, who misused images originally taken or exchanged voluntarily. The prevalence of youth-produced and youth-involved image abuse highlights the importance of prevention strategies tailored to school-aged youth.
