Differences in political participation between social classes are well documented, yet less is known about the mechanisms that may reduce these gaps. This article adopts a life-course perspective to investigate whether youth volunteering can mitigate class-based inequalities in electoral participation. Using longitudinal data from Germany, we analyse how class of origin affects voting for the newly enfranchised, how volunteering influences turnout, and how both factors interact. Our findings show that, while individuals from working-class backgrounds are less likely to vote and youth volunteering increases electoral participation for all, volunteering during youth nearly closes the participation gap linked to social origin and uplifts specifically blue-collar working-class children’s electoral participation. These results suggest that voluntary engagement in youth can serve as a “school of democracy,” reducing class-based inequalities in political participation starting at an early age, which remain persistent otherwise.
Democracies around the world have increasingly faced concerted efforts to dismantle democratic institutions. How should public speakers respond to such attempts at democratic backsliding? A widespread rhetorical strategy is to affirm democracy —that is, to publicly invoke the value of democracy and vigorously insist on the need to defend it. I argue that this practice gives rise to an underappreciated democratic dilemma. On one hand, distinctive features of the backsliding process seemingly require us to affirm democracy. Yet, on the other hand, this practice also poses serious dangers for democracy. For one, it risks accelerating democratic erosion. Moreover, efforts to limit this risk seemingly violate democratic requirements of truthfulness. So, both affirming democracy and failing to do so involve significant democratic pitfalls. The best way to navigate this dilemma, I contend, is not to forgo affirming democracy. Instead, it is to do so in a way that emphasises elites’ concrete attacks on democracy, while insisting that most people are strongly committed to democracy. While this approach may indeed involve some deception—insofar as it may knowingly overstate support for democracy—this is often all-things-considered justified.
Rational choice theories offer one of the major explanations for citizens’ voting behavior. The most prominent models within the rational choice framework – spatial and valence voting – share the same roots but differ in central aspects, emphasizing ideological congruence and competence evaluations, respectively. In this note, we provide a direct test of the models’ relative strength. Does a party’s issue congruence with a voter (spatial) or its effectiveness in handling important issues (valence) have a larger effect on vote choice? Our results from lab-like conditions using a novel conjoint experiment show strong evidence for both models, but valence evaluations consistently trump spatial considerations. These results have important implications for research on electoral behavior, party politics, and democratic representation.
Government identifiability – the degree to which the party composition of the eventual government can be predicted given the election results – is a desirable characteristic of a political system. But the measurement of identifiability has remained impressionistic, limiting our ability to speak precisely about trade-offs between identifiability and other characteristics of the political system. I show that a recent measure of bargaining complexity by Cronert and Nyman acts as a ratio-level measure of government identifiability measured in bits – or equivalently, the number of yes/no questions needed to identify the composition of the government. I then show how identifiability is linearly related to the number of seat-winning parties in three different contexts: parliamentary governments, presidential cabinets, and municipal governments. Across all three contexts, an additional seat-winning party increases entropy of government formation by between 0.7 and 0.8 bits. Since identifiability is linearly related to the number of parties, any increase in the number of parties through electoral reform will worsen identifiability by the same amount. Conversely, there are no “sweet spots” where we can achieve high levels of identifiability at low cost in terms of the number of parties.
The work of being an elected representative today is increasingly demanding as they seek to perform representation amid political distrust, polarised electorates, and rising populism. In response, elected representatives and their teams invest heavily in developing and showcasing their capacities to represent. This variously involves constructing representative personas, designing participatory events, curating diverse digital content, and communicating evidence on how and where they are representing. Extending Saward’s representative claim-making framework, this article develops the concept of representative-capacity-making to better understand this overlooked (‘backstage’) aspect of modern representation. The article explores – in concept only – the work involved in developing and demonstrating four key representative capacities. The normative implications of representative-capacity-making in an era of democratic strain are considered. While representative-capacity-making can be read as a response to the challenges of democratic representation today, the extent to which it can be a solution is mixed, in specified ways.
Normative research on greenwashing has largely focused on the environmental and economic consequences of false or misleading green claims. This article introduces a new perspective that sheds light on its democratic costs. First, I argue that by interfering with the transmission of a public political culture through deceptive claims, greenwashing constitutes a particularly problematic form of corporate capture of democratic rhetoric. I further contend that greenwashing should also be examined against ordinary patterns of language use, given their capacity to shape the range of communicative possibilities available. At the normative level, I then defend a duty to counter-frame: a duty of ordinary citizens to play their part in avoiding reinforcing the communicative conditions that facilitate corporate capture of public rhetoric. This duty aims to initiate processes of reciprocal reason-giving about responsible language use within everyday conversations.
This article provides a critical analysis of meritocracy as an instrument of public governance in weakly institutionalized democracies, using Ukraine as a case study. It argues that meritocracy is not an autonomous driver of governmental effectiveness or political legitimacy; its impact depends on the quality of broader political institutions and accountability structures. The study advances two hypotheses. (H1) In weak democracies with limited institutional capacity, the formal introduction of meritocratic instruments – higher remuneration and professionalized recruitment – without effective accountability mechanisms does not produce sustainable positive socio-economic outcomes. (H2) Where political accountability is weakened, such reforms intensify asymmetries in income and status both within the civil service and between top officials and society, without improving public policy performance. Methodologically, the article draws on comparative institutionalism and theories of democratic accountability. It combines comparative analysis, institutional examination of legal frameworks, and secondary data analysis. The paper systematizes key theoretical approaches to meritocracy as an organizational principle, a reward system, and a source of legitimation, and contrasts its functioning in consolidated democracies and Central and Eastern Europe with its constraints in weakly institutionalized systems. The empirical section examines Ukraine after 2014. It shows that fragmented reforms, weak horizontal accountability – particularly limited parliamentary oversight of the executive – and the persistence of informal practices have rendered meritocratic innovations largely imitative. The analysis finds no stable correlation between increased remuneration for top officials and improvements in socio-economic indicators, while documenting widening income asymmetries within the bureaucracy. The article concludes that in the absence of effective administrative sanctions and political accountability, meritocracy in Ukraine operates primarily as a mechanism of external legitimation and "managed professionalization," rather than as a tool for strengthening democratic accountability and governance effectiveness. It argues that meritocratic procedures must be embedded in a comprehensive system of political and administrative accountability to generate substantive institutional change. Key words: meritocracy, public administration, civil service, democratic legitimacy, institutional weakness, political accountability, horizontal accountability, comparative institutionalism, government effectiveness.
Understanding when and why social cleavages shape electoral behaviour is a central concern in the study of democratic politics. While many accounts emphasise the long-term social changes, others point to the role of party strategy. We contribute to this debate by analysing the political evolution of one of the central cleavages of the twentieth century—class—in one of the world’s longest-standing democracies—Britain. Analysing a unique new dataset combining constituency-level results across 37 general elections from 1885 to 2024 with data from eight censuses, applying geospatial redistricting methods, we describe the rise, stability and eventual decline of class-based voting, showing that a strong class cleavage emerged in the early twentieth century, remained stable for decades, but then unravelled rapidly after the 1990s. These patterns are difficult to reconcile with theories that emphasise gradual social change and are more consistent with accounts that stress political agency and representation.
Abstract. The article examines the security dilemma as a fundamental analytical construct and a universal methodological prism to interpret contemporary international relations under conditions of global uncertainty. It reveals its role as a key mechanism that explains the reproduction of mistrust, the escalation of conflicts, and the paradoxical transformation of defensive actions into sources of threat. The study aims to conceptualize the security dilemma as a comprehensive conceptual and methodological prism to analyze international relations, reveal its two-level structure (interpretation dilemma and response dilemma), explore the interaction between material and psychological factors in its dynamics, and assess the explanatory and mitigating potential of different theoretical approaches. The research adopts an interdisciplinary approach that combines structural-functional, cognitive-psychological, comparative-theoretical, and systems analysis. It employs a historical-genetic method to trace the evolution of the concept and applies a technological approach to examine how political, communicative, and institutional mechanisms can manage the security dilemma. The study demonstrates that the security dilemma operates as a multi-level and self-reinforcing mechanism in which interpretative errors translate into strategic actions and intensify spirals of mistrust. The analysis identifies three major approaches – fatalist, moderate, and transcendental – and evaluates their analytical potential and limitations. The study further demonstrates that technological competition, digitalization, and global interdependence transform the security dilemma and extend its dynamics into non-physical domains such as cyberspace and technological ecosystems. The findings highlight that effective management of strategic uncertainty requires integrating material and ideational factors into a unified analytical perspective. The article concludes that rethinking the security dilemma as a methodological prism opens new opportunities for developing innovative approaches to international relations and designing strategies to mitigate conflict dynamics. It argues that developing hybrid analytical models that integrate structural, cognitive, and technological dimensions is essential for advancing both theoretical understanding and practical policy-making. Keywords: security dilemma, international relations, strategic uncertainty, trust, interpretation, security paradox, security competition, methodology, international security
Abstract. The article provides a comprehensive analysis of populism as a discursive practice of power within the theoretical paradigm of M. Foucault. The relevance of the study is обусловлена the increasing role of populist actors in contemporary political processes and the need to rethink this phenomenon beyond traditional ideological and sociological approaches. The paper substantiates the applicability of the discursive approach, which makes it possible to conceptualize populism not as a set of political ideas, but as a mode of constructing political reality through systems of symbolic representations, rhetorical strategies, and communicative practices. The theoretical foundation of the study is based on the works of M. Foucault, in which power is interpreted as a network of social relations functioning through the interaction of knowledge and discourse. It is demonstrated that political reality is not objectively given, but is formed through a discursive struggle over meaning, within which legitimate interpretations of social processes are established. The main focus is placed on interpreting populism as a technology of power. It is argued that populist discourse exercises power through the production of meanings, the construction of political identities, and the establishment of interpretative frameworks of social reality. The key mechanisms of this technology are identified as the construction of symbolic oppositions, the mobilization of collective emotions, the personalization of politics, and the use of standardized rhetorical clichés. These elements form an integrated system of discursive influence that enables audience mobilization and the legitimation of political power. The scientific novelty of the study lies in combining the discursive approach to the analysis of populism with the Foucauldian concept of power, which makes it possible to interpret populism as a form of contemporary governance realized through the control of meaning-making processes. The article demonstrates that populist discourse not only reflects political reality but actively constructs it, producing new political subjectivities and regimes of truth. Keywords: populism, political discourse, power, Michel Foucault, political communication, symbolic politics
Ukraine has found itself at the epicenter of not only a military confrontation but also a complex geopolitical game, where each potential scenario for ending the war carries profound implications for the nation`s future. The paper examines possible scenarios for ending the war and models trajectories of Ukraine`s post-war development within the context of the complex societal dynamics of the past, present, and future. The conceptual foundation of the study lies in the societal paradigm, while the methodological framework is based on an integral matrix of societal forecasting, which enables analytical operationalization of complex societal dynamics and the social situation in both systemic ("top-down") and psychosocial ("bottom-up") dimensions. The focus is placed not only on political, military, or economic factors but primarily on the deeper processes of transformation within the societal structure, mass consciousness, value system, and collective identity. A spectrum of potential outcomes is considered – from total victory and "frozen conflict" to enforced peace and societal transformation – identifying the risks and opportunities inherent in each. Particular attention is paid to the psychological and social consequences of the ongoing confrontation. The study demonstrates how war fatigue, burdened by a deterministic cycle of crises and collective traumas, may affect the Ukrainian society`s capacity for reconstruction and consolidation. It also explores the mechanisms through which different peace settlement scenarios can either facilitate or hinder the overcoming of war`s aftermath. The paper offers not only an analytical description of possible scenarios but also practical recommendations for developing a flexible and adaptive strategy for post-war recovery. Its goal is to outline potential contours of Ukraine`s "post-war future" and stimulate an expert discussion on the societal preconditions of sustainable peace in an era of hybrid challenges and profound collective transformations. It also seeks to contribute to the broader discourse on Ukraine`s future by proposing a scientifically grounded approach to scenario modelling as a tool not only for forecasting but also for the societal self-definition of a nation striving to balance security, justice, and recovery under conditions of uncertainty. Keywords: societal paradigm, societal dynamics, social forecasting, predictive modeling, scenarios, post-war reconstruction, psychology in social forecasting, social situation, interdisciplinarity, methodology.
Abstract. The article summarizes the results of a study on the politics of historical memory in the Russian Federation and its interaction with national historical narratives. It demonstrates that the central authorities continue a deliberate policy of "unification" of the historical past, aimed at preserving the imperial integrity of the state. Narratives of the "voluntary accession" of territories to Russia and the "civilizing mission" of ethnic Russians remain dominant in official historiography, while national versions of history are systematically ignored or discredited. Censorship, repression, and propaganda practices are employed to maintain control over historical interpretations. It is noted that concepts denying the diversity of state-building processes among national minorities are manipulative in nature. Most peoples perceive periods of existence outside the Russian state as key stages in the formation of their identity, often interpreting them as the "Golden Age" of their own history. At the same time, the representations imposed by the center contain pronounced internal contradictions. The most illustrative example is the imperial cult of the "Great Patriotic War," which is difficult to reconcile with the facts of mass repressions against entire peoples accused of "collaborationism." Since 2022, the agreement of the leadership of certain national republics of the Russian Federation not to address "controversial historical issues" has not canceled the demands directed at the center to abandon the exclusively Russian-centric interpretation of the past and to adopt a respectful attitude toward the historical heritage of other peoples of the federation. It is emphasized that divergences in the interpretation of history extend beyond the opposition of "Moscow vs national republics" and encompass contradictions among the republics themselves, which may also have far-reaching consequences. Thus, the politics of memory in contemporary Russia emerges not only as an instrument of control but also as a potential source of diverse disintegrative conflicts. Keywords: historical memory, national identity, colonial policy, national republics in the Russian Federation
Abstract. Effective independent justice systems contribute to the investment attractiveness, competitiveness and economic productivity of the state. It is the judicial system, provided it functions in the interests of society and citizens, that is one of the factors that shapes the inclusive nature of political institutions – it provides the opportunity for broad participation of people in political and economic life, preventing the concentration of power and economic resources in the hands of a few, guaranteeing equal and full access to the court. The scientific article is devoted to the study of the current state of transformations of the judicial and anti-corruption systems of Ukraine in the conditions of a full-scale war. The author analyzes the dynamics of changes, the results and consequences of reforms, challenges and the next necessary steps for further transformation. The emphasis is on the main areas of reform efforts - leveling political influence by changing the procedures for forming key institutions (High Qualification Commission of Judges of Ukraine, High Council of Justice of Ukraine and Constitutional Court of Ukraine, as an arbitrator in disputes between branches of government and a guarantor of compliance with the Constitution), updating the judiciary, strengthening the anti-corruption bloc by granting the SAPО the status of a separate legal entity, restoring the obligation to declare public officials, implementing an electronic criminal proceedings system that allows detectives, prosecutors and judges to work in a single digital field, etc. It is emphasized that judicial reform involves not only changing legislation, but also changing people - attracting new, honest personnel through transparent competitions, qualification assessment and integrity checks. The personnel collapse that exists in Ukraine today creates risks for the quality of the reform. Keywords: Judicial reform, Constitutional Court of Ukraine, Supreme Court of Ukraine, HQCJ, Supreme Court of Justice of Ukraine, State Anti-Corruption Program
It is noted that the European Parliament, due to its size and national, linguistic and cultural pluralism, faces difficulties inherent in the changing nature of the political community it represents. It is proved that the European Parliament can be attributed to the third, hybrid type of representative body. Since the first type seeks to ensure popular representation and create formal conditions for democratisation, the second type is characteristic of international, public and private organisations, and is used to coordinate the activities of a large number of participants. The introduction of direct elections has brought it closer to the first type, but its lack of universal competence is characteristic of the second type. The main obstacles to further parliamentarisation of the EU are: the dynamics of intergovernmental relations (deepening integration without supranationalisation), resistance from the European Council (refusal to cede its powers), over-constitutionalisation (increasing importance of court decisions as opposed to political decisions made by the European Council and the European Parliament), agencification (transfer of regulatory decision-making in the field of market policy formation and adjustment to independent regulatory bodies) and representativeness. It is noted that the admission of new members will inevitably lead to an increase in regressiveness and exacerbate the problem of electoral inequality. The advantages and disadvantages of alternative electoral systems for increasing the representativeness of the European Parliament are considered. The author proves the need to strengthen cooperation between Ukrainian political parties and European parliamentarians in order to secure their support during the vote on the country`s accession to the European Union and to interact more effectively after full membership. Keywords: parliament, European Union, representation, elections, democracy, democratic deficit, European integration, parliamentarisation.
Social cohesion serves as a crucial socio-institutional safeguard against internal fragmentation and external destructive influences. This article aims to elucidate the main trends, challenges, and factors supporting the social cohesion of Ukrainian society during the full-scale war (2022–2025). The study is based on an analysis of monitoring materials from regions of Ukraine, differentiating processes according to their types. It is articulated that in so-called "rear areas," a relatively high level of civic engagement and self-organization is observed. This acts as an effective buffer against fragmentation, despite general economic vulnerability and fragmented trust in institutions. In "frontline and liberated territories," the system of military administrations demonstrates an ability to adapt and cooperate with civil society; however, socio-economic problems persist. Successful examples (such as the national project "Side-by-Side: Cohesive Communities," among others) indirectly indicate the potential for developing horizontal solidarity and interregional support. The study identifies structural risks, particularly low political agency and general economic deprivation, which pose a threat to social solidarity in the long term. In the Temporarily Occupied Territories (TOT), the occupation authorities are conducting systematic efforts aimed at undermining and destroying social cohesion, specifically by imposing their own educational system and memory politics with the aim of eradicating Ukrainian identity and creating conditions for forced integration. The humanitarian situation in the TOT further exacerbates social inequality. It is argued that the social cohesion of Ukrainian society remains high, particularly at the grassroots level and in the context of volunteer assistance, yet it faces a regional differentiation of challenges. Further political science research should focus on developing socio-political mechanisms for transforming social solidarity into sustainable civic participation, as well as socio-political instruments to mitigate structural risks (economic vulnerability, mistrust, low political agency). This is critical for post-war recovery and the strengthening of national resilience. Keywords: social cohesion, Ukrainian society, full-scale war, regional monitoring, temporarily occupied territories, national resilience, solidarity.
The ‘directional’ definition of negative campaigning (i.e. when candidates leverage critiques against their political opponents) has been criticized for lacking reliability and validity. Does this critical assessment resist scrutiny? We propose, via nine different original studies, a full-scale reassessment of this critical assessment. Building on novel evidence from sources as disparate as expert ratings of elections across the world, automated and manual coding of social media posts, candidate self-ratings, cross-sectional surveys, experimental evidence, and more, we provide a much less pessimistic outlook. The evidence discussed in the nine studies showcases high levels of (self-)observer agreement (i.e. different people evaluate the same phenomenon similarly), situational consistency (evaluations are stable across time and space), convergent validity (different independent measures of the same phenomenon are strongly correlated), construct validity (measures can be used to provide empirical support for theoretically cogent hypotheses), and discriminant validity (proximate phenomena are perceived differently). The directional measure of campaign negativity is not perfect, but it is very much alive and kicking. The data and materials for all nine studies are open for replication and re-analysis.
Strategy (2017 and 2025), developed by the administration of President D. Trump. In particular, the 2017 National Security Strategy defined the geopolitical priorities of the United States in the context of the spread of Islamic terrorism, the strengthening of the role of the Russian Federation and the PRC in the global world, changes in the regional balance of power, the strengthening of transnational and immigration processes, etc. and for the first time stated that the world had again entered an "era of strategic competition." As the dominant US approach to "preserving peace," "projection of power" was emphasized, including by expanding its presence in global cyberspace. In November 2025, the 47th President of the United States D. Trump signed a new National Security Strategy, which became a rare official explanation of the foreign policy worldview of the D. Trump administration and is closely intertwined with his personal vision of the world order and the place and role of America in the international security system. Her analysis points to a grand transformation of the White House`s geostrategic narratives, which has affected global geopolitics and changed the balance of civilizational influences on the world stage. The doctrinal principles of US foreign policy during the presidency of Donald Trump and their impact on the system of international relations are analyzed. Special attention is paid to considering the US-European Union projection in the context of the United States National Security Strategy in view of the permanent crisis of transatlantic unity of the West in general and NATO in particular. A comprehensive vision and analysis of the latest strategic direction of the United States in the international arena is highlighted, which, however, does not mean its absolute correspondence to Washington's future actions under realpolitic conditions. The author`s vision of two directions of formation of the newest global model of the future world order is proposed: the imperocentric / imperopolar world or the dignuscentric / dignuspolar world (imperacentric world vs dignuscentric world). It is noted that the new world order can prevail not only as a result of a destructive war or the triumph of total chaos, but also as a consequence of a post-conflict compromise or agreement of positions and concessions in taming controlled chaos in order to prevent world ruin. Keywords: national security, international politics, geopolitics, geostrategy, Trump
Abstract. This article provides a comprehensive study of the process of resolving the "frozen conflict" in Nagorno-Karabakh, offering a detailed analysis of its geopolitical, legal, and humanitarian consequences. Particular attention is paid to the period following the dissolution of the USSR, during which the influence of international actors such as Russia, Turkey, Iran, the EU and the US significantly impacted the conflict`s dynamics. The article also examines the historical background to territorial disputes. The analysis covers legal issues, particularly those relating to sovereignty and territorial integrity, as well as the protection of the rights of local ethnic minorities in accordance with international and humanitarian law. Examples of ceasefire violations, the blockade of the Lachin corridor, and violence against the civilian population are examined to illustrate the limited effectiveness of legal mechanisms in the absence of political will from the parties involved and international control. In the humanitarian dimension, the article focuses on the mass emigration and forced displacement of over 100,000 people, which has led to a socio-economic crisis. Additionally, the article examines the evolution of diplomatic processes, the involvement of international actors - including Russia and the United States - and the consequences of the escalating conflict between Azerbaijan and Russia from 2024 to 2025. This conflict resulted in civilian casualties and the detention and persecution of Azerbaijanis in the Russian Federation. The study pays particular attention to assessing the prospects for the further normalisation of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, including the resolution of territorial disputes and border security issues. The paper provides an analytical overview of the issues that remain unresolved after the end of Nagorno-Karabakh`s de facto independence, and outlines the importance of territorial sovereignty in maintaining the existing international order. Keywords: Nagorno-Karabakh, frozen conflict, international humanitarian law, geopolitics, human rights, post-conflict reconstruction, regional security, international assistance
Abstract. The article presents a comprehensive theoretical and methodological analysis of national consolidation processes amidst the full-scale Russian-Ukrainian war. Acknowledging the terminological nuances where Western scientific discourse predominantly operates with concepts of "social cohesion" and "national resilience," this study justifies the use of "national consolidation" as an integrative macro-social category. The primary focus is on the actualization and reinterpretation of classical global paradigms through the lens of the Ukrainian experience: the sociology of conflict (G. Simmel, L. Coser), functionalism and social capital theories (E. Durkheim, R. Putnam), communication theory and constructivism (K. Deutsch, B. Anderson), as well as transitological approaches to preserving democratic arenas (S. Huntington, F. Fukuyama). The findings demonstrate that the unique Ukrainian case fundamentally expands traditional Western models. Specifically, the study illustrates the transformation of the "imagined communities" concept in the era of digital resistance and demonstrates the shift from classical institutional hierarchy to horizontal networked resilience (rhizomatic consolidation). It is substantiated that under existential threat, consolidation occurs not through the curtailment of democracy, but through the preservation of key democratic institutions and an unprecedented surge in social capital. The synthesis of Western theories with contemporary Ukrainian academic discourse allows concluding that the consolidation of Ukrainian society is not merely a reactive defense mechanism, but an act of definitive decolonization and a conscious value-based choice. The proposed theoretical framework provides a solid methodological foundation for further interdisciplinary research on social dynamics and the forecasting of societal transformations. The formulated conclusions also have practical significance and can be utilized in the development of post-war state cohesion strategies. Keywords: national consolidation, social capital, national resilience, communicative action, decolonization, social cohesion
Abstract. This article substantiates how modern digital technologies, specifically the Digital Twins concept, can significantly enhance political decision-making under conditions of uncertainty, information scarcity, and actor pluralism. We concentrate attention on the novel concepts of the development of the decision making processes and procedures with the accent on implementation of socioeconomic simulations in these decisions formulation. The goal of our studies is to demonstrate how the Digital Twins exploration may significantly improve policy decisions making through the analysis of possible alternatives. Nowadays the macroeconomic models are incapable to take into account all the aspects while the behavioral models are insufficiently developed. Digital Twins are defined as dynamic virtual models of real-world systems (cities, industries, or social processes) that operate based on real-time data. They enable policymakers to "stress-test" political decisions within a secure digital environment, providing high-precision forecasting of outcomes before their physical implementation, thus preventing destabilizing social consequences. The study argues that the role of a Digital Twin in public policy extends far beyond functional duplication or monitoring; its primary value lies in scenario forecasting through Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP). The authors propose a framework for robust interaction between Digital Twins and the institutions responsible for developing and implementing public policies. Furthermore, the integration of DAPP with Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) is explored to diagnose latent barriers and root causes of systemic issues. The article offers practical scenarios for utilizing Digital Twins in electoral and demographic tasks and discusses "soft" decision-making methods for multi-criteria evaluation of policy alternatives. One of the cases demonstrates a possibility to forecast the result of elections by means of the Digital Twins methods with taking into account sociological data on economic expectations and value orientations of voters. Keywords: Public Policy, making political decisions, Digital Twins, virtual forecasting, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Causal Layered Analysis
