ABSTRACT: The BS hypothesis suggests that developing countries tend to experience a higher relative price of non-tradable goods compared to developed countries due to higher productivity in their tradable goods sectors, leading to consequent higher wages across the economy. Subsequently, there are surges in the price of non-tradables due to higher production costs. The Kernel of the (BS) effect is the relationship between productivity and real exchange rate. Generally, it holds for developed countries, but it is inconsistently valid for individual developing countries. This study, therefore, empirically reinvestigates the validity of the BS effect in the context of selected 91 developing and less-developed economies. First, a battery of seven panel unit root tests are conducted to ascertain panel data nonstationary. Second, Pedroni's heterogenous panel co-integration procedure is implemented for long-run relationship. Third, to draw inferences on the BS effect, the dynamic panel Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) with the variables in first-differences is invoked. The sample size includes ninety-one selected developing and less-developed countries due to the availability of the relevant annual data spanning from 1991 to 2017. The empirical results reveal panel data-nonstationary and cointegrating relationship between the variables. The dynamic panel GMM estimates tend to support the BS hypothesis. This implies constant real exchange rate exerting no influences on the real economy. However, some countries included in the panel may likely experience, otherwise. This might be due to the differences in economic structures, and levels of economic development, amid some other fundamental reasons such as lagging behind modern technological progress. The policy particularly to boost productivity in the traded sector may likely cause random deviations in real exchange rate that in turn may have real economic effects. This means that a developing country's currency may appear undervalued when using exchange rates compared to the purchasing power parity (PPP) due to its higher productivity in tradable goods. This can impact economic policies related to exchange rate management and inflation targeting.
ABSTRACT: Blockchain technology presents a paradigm shift for the financial sector with its decentralized, transparent, and immutable ledger system. In Nigeria, a significant gap persists between the technology's potential to enhance efficiency, security, and inclusion and its sluggish, cautious adoption by traditional financial institutions, necessitating empirical investigation into its perceived impact and the barriers to integration. This study utilized a descriptive survey research design to quantitatively assess the perceptions of Nigerian financial sector professionals. Data were collected from 235 purposively selected bankers and fintech experts using a structured questionnaire. The instrument demonstrated strong validity and reliability. Data analysis involved descriptive statistics and inferential techniques, including Pearson's Product-Moment Correlation to test relationships between blockchain adoption and key dependent variables, and multiple regression analysis to determine the predictive power of specific blockchain features on operational cost reduction. The methodology effectively captured industry sentiment as a vital gauge of future adoption potential. The results revealed strong, positive, and statistically significant correlations between blockchain adoption and the disruption of traditional banking models (r=0.611, p<0.01), the enhancement of financial inclusion (r=0.574, p<0.01), and the improvement of transaction security and privacy (r=0.652, p<0.01). Respondents strongly agreed that blockchain simplifies loan processing, eliminates cross-border payment intermediaries, and provides superior, tamper-proof encryption. Regression analysis confirmed that blockchain attributes, particularly transparency and automation, significantly predict cost reduction in banking operations, accounting for 47.7% of the variance (Adjusted R2). A critical finding, however, is the "implementation gap," where high perceived potential contrasts with lower agreement on observed institutional benefits, indicating that practical integration lags behind theoretical promise due to existing barriers. To bridge the implementation gap, the study recommends that Nigerian policymakers and regulators, led by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), prioritize the development of a comprehensive, clear, and risk-based regulatory framework for blockchain applications. This must be supported by substantial investment in foundational digital infrastructure and nationwide capacity-building and public awareness campaigns. These coordinated actions are essential to foster a conducive environment for the responsible and widespread adoption of blockchain, thereby unlocking a more efficient, inclusive, and secure financial system.
ABSTRACT: The Eastern African countries have in the last years vigorously invested in public infrastructure to accelerate growth. However, in the empirical literature on Eastern Africa, the extent to which these investments have influenced the observed growth trajectories at the aggregate and sectoral levels remains uncertain. The current study bridges this gap. With a focus on nine Eastern African countries (i.e. Burundi, Comoros, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Seychelles, Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda), the study estimates a variety of aggregate and sectoral growth models using data for the period 2003-2019, and the Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) technique. This technique was selected based on the Breusch–Pagan Cross-sectional dependence LM test, and the presence of serial correlation, confirmed by the Wooldridge test, and heteroskedasticity, as per the Wald test results. Data was sourced from the World Bank World Development Indicator, and Africa Development Bank African Infrastructure Index. The study shows that infrastructure development is important for total output. At the sectoral level, the effect is observed strongest in the industrial sector, followed by the services and the agricultural sectors. While the impact of electricity infrastructure was greatest in the services sector followed by the agricultural and industrial sectors, a further disaggregation of electricity reveals that access to electricity exhibits the greatest benefit for the industrial sector followed by the services sector and agriculture sector. The water supply and sanitation infrastructure was found to display its greatest impact on the industrial sector, followed by the agricultural sector, and the services sector. Only the services sector appeared to benefit from transport infrastructure, albeit weakly. Additionally, financial development and investment drive domestic output, whereas trade liberalization and real exchange rate appreciation adversely affect it. First, well-integrated policies targeted at improving infrastructure, and particularly ICT, electricity and water supply and sanitation, should be adopted to propel growth in the agriculture, industry, and service sectors. Programs such as Water, Sanitation and Hygiene services, the United Nations' Water Action Decade', should be supported. Second, policy makers in Eastern Africa ought to focus not only on expanding electricity-generating capacity but also access while taking steps to curb electricity transmission and distribution losses.
ABSTRACT: The COVID-19 pandemic triggered unprecedented economic disruption, prompting governments to expand public spending to mitigate losses. However, in contexts of high corruption, these resources risk diversion, reducing their intended impact. This study analysed the impacts of corruption on public spending in times of economic crisis, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. An endogenous growth model was developed, incorporating public spending's role in infrastructure and corruption's predatory effects. The model predicts an inverted U-shaped relationship between spending and firm growth, with corruption lowering the curve's peak. Empirical analysis used World Bank Enterprise Surveys and macroeconomic indicators for over 35,000 firms in multiple countries during the pandemic. Variables included firm-level government support, credit access, tax exemptions, remote work adoption, and macro indicators like corruption control and government effectiveness. Estimation employed OLS, IV, and GMM to address endogeneity, with robustness checks validating instruments. Results capture the interaction between governance quality, spending efficiency, and corruption. Theoretical and empirical results confirm a non-linear, inverted U-shaped link between public spending and firm sales growth during COVID-19. Moderate spending initially boosts productivity and sales via better infrastructure; beyond an optimal point, expected future taxation dampens investment and growth. Corruption reduces this optimal point, flattening the curve and lowering spending efficiency. Economies with stronger governance and less corruption benefit more from public investment, particularly under pandemic restrictions. Firm-level results show that government support, remote work, and permanent hiring positively affect sales. Meanwhile, new credit access, tax exemptions, and wage subsidies often correlate negatively. Public health spending is positive for growth, but total health spending, due to private concentration, shows negative associations. Governance quality significantly amplifies public spending's effectiveness. Findings highlight the need for anti-corruption measures to maximize the impact of public spending, especially during crises. Efficient governance enhances infrastructure gains, fosters firm resilience, and sustains growth under fiscal constraints. Policymakers should optimize spending levels, avoiding excessive taxation risks, while prioritizing transparent allocation and effective delivery. Strengthening institutional quality can mitigate corruption's negative effects, ensuring that scarce resources, particularly during emergencies, are directed toward productive uses that bolster firm performance and economic recovery. Institutional reforms thus complement fiscal strategies for sustainable post-crisis development.
ABSTRACT: Organizational change in African state-owned enterprises frequently fails due to rigid governance structures, institutional mistrust, and employee resistance. While reform efforts emphasize technical solutions, the role of fairness perceptions remains underexplored. Understanding how procedural justice shapes employee responses is critical to improving change acceptance and enhancing the effectiveness of public-sector reforms in developing economies. This study develops and empirically tests a structural equation model grounded in procedural justice and social exchange theories. A cross-sectional survey design was employed, collecting data from 1,500 employees of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company across departments, tenure levels, and educational backgrounds. Key constructs include perceived organizational support, fear of change consequences, self-confidence in learning and development, trust in management, and perceived need for change, with procedural justice modeled as a mediating mechanism. Data were analyzed using confirmatory factor analysis to establish reliability and validity, followed by structural equation modeling and bootstrapped mediation analysis to test hypothesized relationships and ensure robustness. The results indicate that perceived need for change is the strongest predictor of employee acceptance of organizational transformation, followed by self-confidence in learning, perceived organizational support, and trust in management. Procedural justice has both a direct and indirect effect, significantly mediating the relationships between most employee perceptions and change acceptance, although its mediating role is not supported in the case of self-confidence. The model explains substantial variance in both procedural justice and reactions to change. Moderation analysis shows that employee tenure strengthens the relationship between perceived need for change and acceptance, while higher education enhances the influence of trust on procedural justice. Robustness checks confirm the stability of findings across alternative specifications and estimation techniques. The findings underscore the importance of embedding procedural justice principles such as transparency, consistency, and participatory decision-making into public-sector reform processes. Policymakers and managers should prioritize fairness-driven engagement, clearly communicate the necessity of change, and address employee concerns through inclusive strategies. Tailoring reform initiatives to workforce characteristics, including tenure and educational level, can improve change acceptance, strengthen institutional trust, and enhance the overall effectiveness of organizational transformation in developing economies.
ABSTRACT: The study was undertaken due to underinvestment in the mining sector and a need to enhance confidence in management and potential investors within the mining sector. Also, there are a few studies undertaken in this area for emerging markets. Africa at large has huge deposits of vital mineral resources that are needed at the global level, and the minerals possess the potential to uplift the African economy to a first-world economy. The study aimed to investigate the macro-economic determinants of mining companies' share returns in South Africa. The study adopted a quantitative research methodology, and the System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) was employed using panel data from ten mining companies that are listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) for the period from 2013 to 2021. The collected data was analyzed using E-Views, which resulted in the derivation of correlation and regression analysis. The results were considered significant at p<0.05. The results from the study show evidence of a positive and significant relationship between gross domestic product growth (GDPG) and share price (0.30). A positive and significant connection between GDPG and total returns (TR) was also noted, with a value of 721.8. The association between interest rate and share price (0.67) shows that there is a positive and significant relationship between the variables. The results also reveal that there is a negative but significant relationship between interest rate and mining sector stock returns (-275.1), and a positive and significant relationship exists between interest rate and total returns (827.2). It can be noted that there is a positive and significant relationship between inflation and mining sector stock returns (26.5), while a negative and significant relationship exists between inflation and total returns (-219.7). It is therefore recommended that the central bank, through the monetary policy committee, should keep the interest rate low to make the cost of borrowing cheaper for mining companies while ensuring that it is able to maintain inflationary levels within the set targets.
ABSTRACT: Evolving global inflationary pressures, particularly from advanced economies, have revealed new evidence of the international transmission of economic shocks to emerging markets. South Africa, being heavily integrated into global trade, faces rising imported inflation, which conventional domestic policy instruments have struggled to contain and threatens long-term price stability. This study, therefore, focuses on the inflationary impacts on South Africa, exploring how output and price level shocks from key trading partners, including advanced and emerging economies, affect its macroeconomic performance. Using the Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model, this study evaluates the dynamic transmission of foreign output and price shocks to South Africa's inflation between 1990 and 2023. The model integrates quarterly cross-country data for 20 Sub-Saharan African economies and four advanced partners—the United States, the United Kingdom, the Eurozone, and China. Empirical results reveal that foreign inflation and output shocks significantly influence South Africa's domestic price levels. Shocks originating in China, the Eurozone, and the United Kingdom exert strong positive effects on South African inflation, whereas U.S. shocks often display a dampening effect, reflecting global monetary tightening. The cumulative impact of output and price shocks from major trading partners accounts for approximately 43 and 41 percent of domestic inflation variance, respectively. This underscores the sensitivity of South Africa's inflation to global economic activity and trade linkages. Regional spillovers from countries such as Nigeria and Tanzania further accentuate intra-African interdependence, though their relatively weaker trade weights limit the overall magnitude of these effects. The findings highlight the dominance of external over domestic inflation drivers. Policy responses should extend beyond domestic monetary adjustments to include regional and global coordination mechanisms. South Africa must strengthen macroeconomic collaboration under AfCFTA and SADC to develop joint inflation-monitoring systems. Enhancing export diversification, stabilising exchange rate management, and integrating global indicators into the SARB's inflation-targeting model are imperative. Investments in energy and logistics will improve supply resilience, while a credible reserve accumulation strategy will reduce vulnerability to imported inflation and external commodity price shocks.
ABSTRACT: Modernization theory proposes that social and economic conditions can significantly support higher levels of democracy or democratization. The theory argues that a larger national income, improved social conditions, and a reduction in ethnic divisions are the socio-economic foundations of democracy. Does modernization theory still have any validity today? Our research re-tests several hypotheses drawn from the modernization theory, using Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) data to account for democracy, democratization, upswings, and downturns. The hypotheses test whether more national income, less infant mortality, lower fertility rates, more education, and/or less ethnic fractionalization will increase indicators of democracy and democratization. We use a dataset containing information about 151 countries (including 101 developing countries), spanning years from 1970 to 2019. In our tests, two-way fixed effects models on time-series cross-sectional (TSCS) data employ the hypothesized social and economic variables and lagged dependent variables in the same model to determine which conditions have the most influence. More ethnic fractionalization has a significant and negative effect on levels of democracy. Higher levels of infant mortality have a significant and negative effect on levels of democracy using V-Dem data. Higher fertility rates have a significant and negative effect on levels of democracy if infant mortality is left out, suggesting some collinearity between infant mortality and fertility rates. Indicators such as national income and education are not statistically relevant or fail to have the predicted effect. We also perform robustness tests using Polity V data in place of V-Dem data. Tests on Polity V data broadly confirm our results with V-Dem data. We find no significant results for tests on reverse causation, indicating that endogeneity may not be driving the original results. Our results confirm the current contention that economic development alone is not sufficient for democracy. Our results do indicate that for democracy to thrive, ethnic fragmentation within a country needs to be managed to encourage a healthy coexistence between different ethnic groups. Levels of democracy may also improve with contributions to women's social standing and health. Efforts at consolidating democracy may still benefit from emphasizing these improvements.
ABSTRACT: A current climate exists where diversity, equity, and inclusion are being attacked on the grounds of promoting divisiveness, which contradicts the very definition of these principles. Nevertheless, government and corporate institutions are rolling back programs and practices that support opportunities for impartial acceptance and representation. Historically Black colleges and Universities (HBCUs) are experiencing pressures to reconsider and restructure existing policies, or risk violating government regulations or running afoul of donors and supporters. This pressure focuses on pedagogy, learning objectives, and curriculum. Government directives have banned diversity displays in tax-funded spaces, including the removal of certain teaching references. Non-mandatory research, however, embodies free speech. Academic journals are conduits through which scholars express their research interests. HBCU websites were reviewed to find contact details for library directors, deans, or archivists. Institutional representatives were then contacted via email, with phone follow-ups as requested, to confirm the publication of any academic journals. Approximately one-third of HBCUs currently publish academic journals. Only two of the largest institutions by enrollment did not publish academic journals. The majority of these journals address issues impacting the Black community. The publications span approximately 90 years and are multidisciplinary. Semimanual and annual publications were the most common type. Public institutions published slightly more than half of all journals, and most journals were published after 2000. The journals serve as knowledge repositories that future thinkers can reference as they engage in problem-solving, intellectual growth, and critical analysis of past and current ideas and practices. Although the journals differ in discipline, target audience, and tone, they all have descriptive or explanatory purposes. Ultimately, scholarly journals produced at HBCUS contribute to advancing knowledge and human improvement. HBCUs make invaluable contributions to their communities through the development and production of scholarly works. The presence of academic journals at these institutions highlights the ongoing need for greater visibility, opportunity, and inclusion in the advancement of scholarship. Recognizing and supporting the scholarly publications at HBCUs should be a priority for policymakers, funding agencies, and non-HBCU academic institutions wishing to partner. Investment in journal development and student and faculty support at HBCUs can help address longstanding disparities in academic publishing and visibility.
ABSTRACT: Rice isn't just another crop; it's the backbone of food security for over half the world's population. For many developing countries, it drives rural economies, keeps people employed, and helps keep local markets steady. Pakistan is one of the world's leading rice producers. The rice production drives rural economies, sustains employment, and stabilizes local markets. It also contributes significantly to food security and foreign exchange earnings. However, despite expanding the global export markets, Pakistan's share remained stagnant, particularly after India's post-2012 dominance in the global rice markets. This raises concerns regarding understanding the underlying factors that may determine Pakistan's rice export competitiveness. This study investigates the determinants of rice export competitiveness in Pakistan using annual time-series data from 1980 to 2024. The relative share of rice exports in total agricultural exports measures export competitiveness. Key explanatory variables include input costs, trade openness, exchange rate, global export prices, availability of agricultural credit to farmers, and yield per hectare. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration approach is applied to estimate both long-run and short-run relationships. The findings reveal that higher input costs deteriorated Pakistan's competitiveness in the global rice market. In contrast, trade openness, agricultural credits, and yield per hectare positively and significantly enhance competitiveness. Whereas exchange rate fluctuations and changes in the export price of rice do not have any significant impact on Pakistan's export competitiveness. An insignificant relationship may suggest that non-price factors, such as quality and buyers' preferences, determine the international demand for rice. The estimated result confirms that export competitiveness is a long-run phenomenon. Any deviation in the short run, roughly nine-tenths, is corrected within a year. The study concludes that Pakistan's competitiveness in the global rice market remains stable but heavily dependent on input cost efficiency, technology adoption, and improving productivity rather than price-based competition. Thus, the study suggests that rationalizing fertilizer and pesticide prices, expanding local agro-chemical production, and subsidizing modern farming inputs to lower rice production costs are required to maintain rice competitiveness. Furthermore, adopting better technologies, improving productivity, and meeting international quality standards necessitate the availability of agricultural credits to the farmers.
ABSTRACT: Geographical Indication (GI) is a form of intellectual property applied to goods and services recognized for their geographical origin. They can also serve as tools for territorial development and might help mitigate the effects of crises, such as the one caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aimed to assess the importance of GIs in the territorial development of Brazilian municipalities during the pandemic. In the Brazilian context, GIs appear as a complex and heterogeneous phenomenon; therefore, many studies focus on a single type of product or specific cases. However, this research proposes a broader analysis. To this end, agri-food GIs — the segment with the highest number of registrations in the country — were analyzed through quantitative research using the Propensity Score Matching (PSM) method. Economic indicators such as GDP per capita, variation in the number of businesses, total employment, and employment in the agricultural sector were considered, based on data collected from IBGE, MTE, and MAPA. The results show that GIs played a significant role in the pandemic period by mitigating its economic impact on Brazilian municipalities. Municipalities with at least one GI in their territory showed better performance in the recovery of GDP per capita and total employment, while those with two or more GIs exhibited more pronounced positive differentials. The presence of GIs was associated with an increase in employment per capita, particularly when compared to municipalities without GIs. However, no statistically significant effects were identified regarding the variation in the number of establishments. In the agricultural sector, the effects were significant only for municipalities with multiple GIs, indicating the existence of a multiplier effect. Overall, the findings highlight the contribution of GIs to economic resilience during the pandemic. The data reveal that geographical indications can be used as public policy instruments to promote territorial development and strengthen economic resilience in times of crisis. The appreciation of local products, the strengthening of production chains, and the articulation among public and private actors are key elements. Furthermore, the importance of institutional support and initiatives aimed at promoting and disseminating GIs is emphasized as a means to enhance their effects on territories.
ABSTRACT: Trade liberalization historically has driven global economic growth. However, it has had varying impacts on labor. While increased trade generally boosts productivity and economic growth, it may lead to job specialization, wage stagnation and increased unemployment. In sub-Saharan Africa, these nuanced impacts are understudied. Existing research on trade liberalization in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has focused primarily on aggregate economic growth, with limited attention to labor market outcomes across demographic groups. This study examines the association between trade openness, measured as the ratio of total exports and imports to GDP, and unemployment across six categories: national, male, female, youth, female youth, and male youth unemployment. Using World Bank panel data for 37 SSA countries over 2008 to 2020, the study employs a two-step system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator to account for unemployment persistence and potential endogeneity. Control variables include GDP growth rate, inflation rate, foreign direct investment inflows, and the ease of starting a business score. The results indicate significant unemployment persistence across all demographic categories, with lagged coefficients ranging from 0.218 to 0.367. Trade openness is negatively and significantly associated with unemployment in all six specifications, with the largest coefficient observed for male unemployment (−0.511) and the smallest for male youth unemployment (−0.083). Ease of starting a business and FDI inflows are also negatively associated with unemployment across all models, with particularly strong associations for female unemployment. GDP growth and inflation are largely insignificant. Overall, trade liberalization was associated with improved employment outcomes, though unevenly across demographic groups. The findings are relevant to ongoing policy discussions surrounding the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), though the reduced-form specification captures associations rather than causal effects. Complementary policies are needed, particularly targeted skills development for youth and women. The strong role of business environment and FDI highlights the importance of regulatory reforms and investment promotion. Trade intensity and institutional quality are more closely associated with employment outcomes in SSA than macroeconomic growth alone., underscoring the need for inclusive strategies that directly link trade expansion to job creation.
ABSTRACT: This study explores the impact of environmental regulation on corporate green performance in the context of China's water resource tax reform. The reform, which replaces the previous fee-based system with a tax-based mechanism, represents a significant shift aimed at enhancing water conservation and sustainable development. Despite its importance, the firm-level implications of this reform for Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) performance remain insufficiently explored. Given the rising global concern for ecological sustainability and the urgent need for effective regulatory tools, understanding how tax-based environmental policies affect firms' strategic behavior provides both theoretical and practical significance. This study therefore addresses a key research gap and contributes to the ongoing debate on the economic consequences of environmental governance in developing countries. To investigate the practical impact of the water resource tax reform, we examine a sample of listed firms in the A-share market from 2013 to 2021, with a particular focus on high water-consuming enterprises which are directly affected by the reform. A difference-in-differences (DID) approach is employed to estimate the causal effects. Multiple robustness checks and heterogeneity analyses are conducted to ensure the reliability and consistency of the results. In addition, we explore moderation effects by performing mechanism analysis to uncover underlying channels. The main result demonstrates that the water resource tax reform significantly improves the ESG performance of targeted firms. After conducting a series of robustness tests such as matching method, confounding policy exclusion and instrumental variable technique, the main results of this study remain unchanged. The positive effects are more pronounced among state-owned enterprises, non-high-tech firms and companies located in western regions. In addition, the positive relationship is moderated by pollution intensity and financial pressure. Mechanism tests indicate that stricter government regulation drives firms to increase green investments, pursue green innovation and accelerate industrial upgrading as adaptive strategies. Furthermore, we find that enhanced ESG performance contributes to higher firm value, suggesting financial benefits of sustainable practices. In summary, these findings highlight the effectiveness of the environmental regulation in promoting corporate green transformation and sustainable development. The results also underscore the importance of implementing targeted regulatory measures. This study provides policy insights for developing countries and regions facing significant environmental governance challenges.
ABSTRACT: Academic dropout represents a critical barrier to building inclusive and efficient higher education in Brazil, where cumulative rates have recently reached 59%, with 53% in public universities and 61% in private ones. This study analyzes the Southeast region, which holds strategic importance as the nation's economic hub and concentrates the largest proportion of student enrollments, providing a favorable environment for robust comparative analysis. Despite advances in democratization policies like REUNI and SISU, significant obstacles to student retention persist. Utilizing microdata from the 2023 Higher Education Census (INEP), this research examines a representative sample of 6,930 course observations. The methodology integrates binary logistic regression and linear discriminant analysis (LDA) to identify factors influencing a 'Relative Dropout' indicator, which classifies courses according to the national average of 24.3%. The validation of the discriminant function utilized Wilks' Lambda and Box's M tests to ensure statistical consistency. The independent variables encompass sociodemographic proportions, including gender, ethnicity, and various age groups, alongside institutional factors such as course shift, admission through quota systems, participation in the National Student Assistance Program (PNAES), and access to financial aid. The findings reveal that dropout propensity is significantly influenced by student profiles and institutional support. A higher presence of female students reduces the chance of abandonment by approximately 45%, and the 18–24 age group demonstrates an 80% reduction in dropout probability. Conversely, enrollment in evening shifts increases the relative risk of dropout by roughly 67% due to work-study conflicts. Crucial retention mechanisms, including admission through quota systems, social support, and financial aid, show powerful effects, reducing dropout propensity by between 45% and 76%. The logit model correctly classified 61.9% of courses, while the LDA achieved a 60.1% accuracy rate. Discriminant analysis confirms that younger age, daytime enrollment, and institutional support are the primary variables separating low-dropout environments from high-risk scenarios involving older age groups and lack of assistance. These results underscore that affirmative action and student assistance are vital for academic efficiency. Policy interventions should prioritize the strengthening and continuity of PNAES and financial aid programs, particularly for vulnerable students in evening shifts. Institutional strategies must integrate quota systems with robust psychosocial support and longitudinal monitoring to maximize the social return on public investment and foster sustainable economic and social development.
ABSTRACT: Digital financial innovation has expanded rapidly across emerging banking markets, yet evidence on how specific innovation channels affect bank performance remains fragmented. Existing studies rely largely on aggregate indicators, obscuring bank-level heterogeneity and the role of macroeconomic conditions. This study addresses these gaps using detailed channel-level data from Nigerian Deposit Money Banks. The analysis draws on a bank-level panel covering 2012 to mid-2025, capturing six major digital transaction channels—ATM, POS, WEB, MMO, NEFT, and NIP. A multi-theoretical framework integrates Schumpeterian creative destruction, Merton's functional intermediation view, Modigliani–Miller rent erosion logic, and incomplete markets arguments to align theoretical mechanisms with measurable innovation variables. Methodologically, a Panel ARDL model is employed to distinguish short-run dynamics from long-run relationships, while dynamic GMM estimation addresses persistence, endogeneity, and unobserved heterogeneity. Standard diagnostic tests confirm stationarity properties, cointegration, and model adequacy. Innovation–macro interactions are included to assess whether systemic conditions amplify or weaken performance effects. Three key findings emerge. First, ATM activity consistently enhances Return on Equity (ROE), while NIP shows marginal positive effects, reflecting the performance relevance of high-volume, reliability-critical payment channels consistent with Schumpeterian and functional intermediation theories. Second, POS, WEB, MMO, and NEFT exhibit no robust effects on ROE or ROA, suggesting commoditization pressures, thin margins, or operational inefficiencies typical of mature, fintech-intensive environments, in line with Modigliani–Miller predictions. Third, once macroeconomic moderators are introduced, the exchange rate emerges as the sole significant influencer of ROE. Its inclusion attenuates the baseline significance of ATM and NIP, indicating that macro stability conditions the profitability gains from digital adoption. Across specifications, innovation shows no significant effects on ROA, implying slow materialization of asset efficiency benefits due to cost burdens and organizational adjustment frictions. Findings underscore the need for banks to prioritize investments in infrastructure-relevant channels such as ATM and NIP while applying stronger cost-benefit evaluation to commoditized platforms. Policymakers should strengthen exchange rate stability, interoperability frameworks, and prudential oversight to ensure that digital expansion translates into sustainable profitability. Improved measurement of channel-specific costs, better capture of regulatory shocks, and deeper analysis of bank heterogeneity will enhance future policy design and empirical insights.
ABSTRACT: The resource costs of use of cash, mobile money, checks, automatic clearing house (ACH) credits and debit cards as payment instruments in Ghana are estimated as indicators of cost-efficiency of the country's payment instruments. The extent of use of cash in payments in an economy is hypothesized to be directly proportional to the extent of informality of the economy and the self-employment rate and estimated by regression. Mobile money resource cost was estimated by analyzing financial statements of service providers for the cost of providing the service, and by counting out-of-pocket expenses paid by patrons. Costumer time spent making mobile money payment is valued by estimating the average time to make a successful payment. For checks and ACH credits, counterfactual scenarios for Ghana in 1993 are estimated by mimicking the well documented study of Wells (1996) for the US using 1993 data. Differences in use of checks in Ghana relative to the US are noted and incorporated. Also noted are the differences in human capital efficiencies of the two economies. With 1993 values, annual adjustments are made for the impact of inflation until 2023. Resource costs of debit card payments comprise costs borne by merchants/retailers, banks and infrastructure providers and customers. Merchant/retailer costs are extracted from Hayashi (2021); banks and infrastructure costs and consumer times are taken from Schmiedel et al. (2013) for the European Union and adjusted for Ghana using human capital efficiencies. Findings are reported mostly for the period 2019 to 2023. For 2023, the instrument with the lowest resource cost per transaction was mobile money (USD 0.36) followed by debit card at USD 0.94. Check payments consumed the most resources per transaction. Overall, cash payments consume more resources than others. For 2023, the total resource cost for payment instruments studied was 2.57% of gross domestic product made up as follows (cash 1.51%; mobile money 0.91%; checks, 0.03%; ACH, 0.02% and debit cards 0.10%). The resource cost of non-cash instruments is increasing on account of their increasing use. Mobile money service providers should increase the capacity of their networks. Use of mobile money and debit cards should be encouraged. Use of cash should be further discouraged. Ghana's resource cost estimate for instruments investigated is higher than for a sample of developed economies.
ABSTRACT: The rise of remote work has challenged traditional performance appraisal systems, often amplifying biases due to limited visibility and subjective evaluations. Artificial Intelligence (AI) offers potential for more objective, data-driven assessments. However, its application in unbiased appraisal of remote workers remains underexplored, necessitating a systematic review of existing literature. The study conducted a comprehensive literature review using targeted search terms across reputable databases including ACM, IEEE Xplore, ProQuest, EBSCOhost, Web of Science, and Scopus. A refined search strategy was developed after a pilot phase, incorporating terms like "artificial intelligence," "performance appraisal," and "remote work," along with related concepts such as "machine learning" and "telecommuting." This ensured a diverse and relevant selection of scholarly articles focused on AI's role in evaluating remote workers. Inclusion criteria required peer-reviewed English-language articles published between 2013 and 2024. Ultimately, eight high-quality articles were chosen for analysis in the study. The study revealed that barriers to communication, subjective evaluation criteria, complexities in measuring productivity, and privacy concerns are challenges presented in appraising remote workers. The study's findings reveal that integrating artificial intelligence into performance appraisal procedures provides managers with tools to evaluate digital footprints, including work productivity, communication habits, and engagement levels, and enables instantaneous activity tracking and monitoring of remote workers. It was discovered that Artificial Intelligence could be developed to identify and adjust to cultural subtleties in interpersonal and job styles, making sure appraisals are fair and culturally receptive. The study concluded that AI algorithms and data analytics monitor and evaluate the performance of remote workers in real-time, deliver unbiased appraisal of the performance, provide personalized feedback and enhance communication. This study marks a turning point in how remote workers are evaluated, highlighting the growing role of AI in performance reviews. But to make this shift work fairly and transparently, clear laws and guidelines are needed. These should ensure AI tools are developed and used responsibly. The study suggests that policymakers should team-up with industry experts to create standards and best practices, helping AI-driven performance monitoring become both ethical and effective in the modern workplace.
ABSTRACT: Many Sub-Saharan African countries, including Kenya, continue to grapple with high levels of poverty. While research on poverty has advanced considerably, it remains heavily reliant on monetary indicators such as household income or consumption expenditure. However, there is growing concern about the adequacy of these metrics, given the variation in individual needs and preferences. This study explores an alternative approach: measuring poverty through households' subjective perceptions of their economic well-being. A cross-sectional survey research design was employed in Kiambururu and Komothai locations of Githunguri sub-county, Kiambu County, Kenya. A multi-stage sampling technique was used to select a representative sample of 202 smallholder farming households. Both descriptive and inferential statistical methods were applied. Descriptive statistics included frequencies, percentages, means, and standard deviations, while ordered logistic regression and binary logistic regression were used to examine the determinants of subjective and objective poverty, respectively. The study found that 32.2% of respondents considered themselves to be "just getting along." Subjective poverty was less likely among households with higher income, savings, more educated household heads, and at least one member employed in either the formal or informal sector. In contrast, larger household sizes increased the likelihood of perceiving poverty. Objective poverty, defined by the national poverty line of Ksh 3,947 per person per month (in adult equivalent terms), affected 46.04% of the households. Households with more frequent income inflows and larger sizes were more likely to be objectively poor. Conversely, male-headed households and those with the ability to save were less likely to fall below the poverty line. The findings underscore the importance of complementing traditional poverty metrics with subjective assessments. Individuals living in poverty are often the best judges of their own well-being. For improved policy formulation and targeting, triangulating objective measures with subjective perceptions offers a more comprehensive understanding of poverty. A correction factor should be integrated into poverty measurement methodologies to bridge the gap between statistical indicators and lived realities.
ABSTRACT: Previous research has highlighted that external factors such as government environmental regulations, environmental taxes, and social pressure can influence corporate greenwashing. However, the impact of the judicial environment, as a crucial external governance mechanism, has not been fully explored. The establishment of Circuit Courts by the Supreme People's Court significantly improved the quality of local judiciary, providing a favorable quasi-natural experimental setting for our study. Given that the Circuit Courts were first established in 2015, we select Chinese A-share listed companies from 2010 to 2020 as our research sample to ensure a balanced time window. After a series of data-cleaning steps, we obtain 10,364 firm-year observations. We treat the establishment of Circuit Courts as an exogenous shock that represents the strengthening of the rule of law and employ a DID model to identify its impact on corporate greenwashing. Greenwashing ( GW ) is measured as the gap between qualitative and quantitative disclosures of environmental liabilities in firms' annual reports, indicating the degree of information embellishment. Strengthening the rule of law ( Reform ) equals 1 if a firm's province was covered by the Circuit Courts by June 30 of a given year, and 0 otherwise. The results show that the Circuit Courts play a crucial role in curbing greenwashing. Specifically, the Circuit Courts lead to a 0.053 reduction in the greenwashing index, representing a 14.209% decrease relative to the sample mean, indicating a substantial mitigating effect. Further analysis reveals that the Circuit Courts reduce greenwashing by increasing the environmental risks faced by firms and alleviating firms' financing constraints. The effect is particularly pronounced among firms with lower environmental investments, those belonging to polluting industries, and those located in provinces with underdeveloped financial markets. In addition, the Circuit Courts' role in curbing greenwashing also improves the overall quality of corporate information disclosure. Our study offers important practical implications for policymakers in emerging markets, where legal systems are often underdeveloped and the enforcement of environmental regulations remains weak. The results indicate that strengthening the rule of law can effectively curb corporate greenwashing, with significant implications for both environmental governance and public trust in environmental protection. Therefore, governments should prioritize improving the fairness and efficiency of local judicial systems, strengthening the judiciary's role in environmental governance, and encouraging firms to fulfill their environmental protection responsibilities.
ABSTRACT: Financial analysts serve as critical information intermediaries in capital markets by aggregating macroeconomic, industry, and firm-specific data from diverse sources to generate earnings forecasts. While recent research highlights the increasing integration of alternative data into forecasts, there is limited evidence regarding the impact of government-generated public data on analysts' performance, especially in emerging markets where information environments are often less transparent. This study investigates whether increased availability of government public information enhances analyst forecast quality by leveraging the staggered launch of municipal public data platforms across 147 Chinese cities as an exogenous shock. Employing a multi-period difference-in-differences approach, the analysis focuses on state-owned enterprises listed on China's A-share market between 2007 and 2022, resulting in a final sample of 170,579 analyst-firm-year observations. The empirical model incorporates comprehensive controls for analyst, firm, and city-level characteristics, alongside fixed effects for analysts, firms, and years, with robustness verified through parallel trends validation, placebo tests, and propensity score matching. The results demonstrate that greater government public information availability significantly improves analyst forecast accuracy, representing an economically meaningful 18.4% increase relative to the sample mean. Cross-sectional analyses reveal that these benefits are most pronounced for firms with lower transparency, for more experienced analysts capable of integrating diverse data, and within weaker local information environments in smaller cities. Additional tests indicate that the introduction of public data platforms leads to increased analyst coverage and forecast volume while simultaneously reducing forecast dispersion. Furthermore, analysts decrease their reliance on private information sources as they incorporate more authoritative and credible government data into their models, suggesting that public information acts as a substitute for costly private information acquisition. These findings suggest important policy implications, highlighting that open data platform serves as a vital tool for alleviating information asymmetry, improving the information environment, and generating substantial economic value in emerging markets. By providing standardized, high-quality public information, government initiatives reduce the time and financial costs associated with information search and verification. Ultimately, increased transparency enhances capital market efficiency and facilitates better resource allocation by supporting critical market intermediaries like analysts.
