ABSTRACT Scholarly outputs are the final goods of a heterogeneous, multi‐stage, temporally extended production process. Austrian capital theory provides a way to analyse how artificial intelligence changes that process. This paper conceptualises large language models and related tools not as labour substitutes but as a portfolio of capital goods whose productive role depends on how researchers (as entrepreneurs) specify and integrate them into a plan. AI adoption deepens and rearranges the capital structure of research. Because complementarity is plan‐relative, the effects of AI are intrinsically heterogeneous across researchers and fields, concentrating benefits where AI fills “holes” in an existing workflow and where complementary human capital is strongest. The framework yields practical and institutional implications, including changes to coauthorship incentives, disruptions to writing quality as a screening signal and a coordination problem as evaluation and peer‐review institutions adjust to a newly capital‐deepened production process.
ABSTRACT This study examines how digital economy‐green finance coordination influences economic growth quality across 15 emerging markets during 2010–2023. Coordination is measured through a coupling coordination degree integrating digital economy (five indicators from ITU, World Bank, UN) and green finance (five indicators from CBI, IRENA, World Bank, CCPI) subsystems. Growth quality is operationalized as an entropy‐weighted composite of 14 indicators across five dimensions, using exclusively open‐access data from 10 international databases. A coupling coordination model is employed to quantify the interactive harmony between digital economy and green finance systems, instrumental variable estimation (geographic latitude‐time interaction, F = 48.73) to address endogeneity, and bootstrap mediation analysis (1000 iterations) to identify transmission mechanisms. The results show that coordination significantly enhances growth quality ( β = 0.496, p < 0.01). The coupling coordination degree increased from 0.348 to 0.627 (80.2% improvement). Technological innovation (28.5%) and environmental improvement (26.8%) serve as primary transmission channels. Effects vary up to 3.3‐fold across income levels, infrastructure configurations, and policy environments. Results remain robust across 10 sensitivity specifications. However, manual data extraction may introduce measurement errors, and the sample ends at 2023; future research should employ enterprise‐level datasets and dynamic panel models. The findings support differentiated digital‐green development strategies: deep integration for high‐income economies, infrastructure development for middle‐income countries, and basic investment prioritization for low‐income contexts. This study provides the first cross‐country comparative analysis of digital economy‐green finance coupling coordination effects on growth quality in emerging markets, establishing a replicable paradigm using 10 freely accessible databases.
ABSTRACT As the core platform for global economic governance, the green transformation of the G‐20 countries is of vital importance to global sustainable development. This study, based on panel data from 1990 to 2023 and using a second‐generation econometric method, examines the impact of five factors—digitalization, fintech, trade openness, industrial growth, and per capita income—on the sustainability of natural resources. The findings are as follows: (1) Digitalization intensifies resource dependence, resulting in a “digital rebound effect”, with the transmission channel being the stimulation of consumer demand; (2) Fintech has the potential for “resource conservation” but the effect varies by country, with the transmission channel being green investment promotion; (3) Trade openness and industrial growth inhibit resource rents, verifying the environmental Kuznets curve from the resource perspective; (4) The interaction between digitalization and fintech, and between digitalization and trade openness generates a “doubled rebound effect”; (5) The impact of each factor varies systematically between developed and developing countries, as well as between emerging markets and non‐emerging markets. It is recommended that the G‐20 implement a comprehensive strategy integrating green digitalization, sustainable fintech, and clean industrial upgrading.
This study examines volatility interconnectedness among selected agricultural commodities and precious/industrial metals, together with oil price uncertainty and global supply chain pressure, over the period January 1998 to June 2024 using a Quantile-on-Quantile connectedness framework. The approach captures distribution-sensitive and state-dependent transmission patterns across normal and extreme market conditions beyond conventional mean-based methods. The results show that volatility interconnectedness is pervasive but highly heterogeneous across quantiles, with stronger and more uneven transmission patterns under extreme market states. Within this unified commodity-uncertainty system, oil price uncertainty, and global supply chain pressure are deeply embedded in the volatility network but predominantly occupy receiver-type, macro-indicative positions, while directional roles across commodity markets remain state dependent and time varying. Further analysis indicates that major global stress episodes, including the 2007-2008 food price crisis, COVID-19, and the post-Russia-Ukraine conflict period, are associated with denser and more synchronized volatility transmission structures.
This study investigates the influence of FinTech diffusion on household consumption behaviour during periods of economic uncertainty in Australia. By integrating FinTech adoption indices at the state and territory level with measures of economic uncertainty and linking these to representative household-level expenditure data, the study provides a comprehensive analysis of how digital financial services shape consumer spending patterns. This study analyses panel data from eight Australian states and territories in Australia covering 2016-2025, employing a fixed-effects model to account for unobserved regional heterogeneity. The empirical findings indicate that heightened macroeconomic uncertainty leads households to reallocate spending away from services toward single-use goods, reflecting a more cautious consumption stance. However, widespread FinTech adoption attenuates this contractionary shift. Regions with higher uptake of digital financial platforms exhibit a smaller decline in service spending, suggesting that FinTech provides alternative mechanisms for accessing credit, managing liquidity, and maintaining consumption levels even amid uncertainty. Spatial heterogeneity is also evident. The stabilizing effect of FinTech on consumption is more pronounced in urban areas, where digital infrastructure and financial literacy are comparatively higher. In contrast, rural and First Nations communities exhibit a weaker FinTech-mediated buffering effect, underscoring disparities in digital access and the need for targeted interventions. From a policy perspective, these results highlight the potential of FinTech to enhance household resilience during economic shocks. Policymakers should support the expansion of digital financial services through infrastructure investment, regulatory frameworks that promote inclusive access, and educational initiatives to improve digital financial literacy, particularly in underserved regions. By fostering a more equitable digital financial ecosystem, governments can help mitigate the adverse consumption impacts of economic uncertainty and promote broader economic stability.
Population ageing poses significant challenges to economic growth and fiscal sustainability in advanced economies. This study examines how fiscal sustainability and labour force participation moderate the impact of ageing on gross domestic product (GDP) growth across 37 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development member countries from 1995 to 2023. We introduce a novel composite fiscal sustainability index that captures fiscal health through nine macro-fiscal indicators, integrating expenditure control, revenue adequacy, macroeconomic stability, and debt management. Employing a dynamic panel data approach with system generalised method of moments estimation, we address endogeneity and unobserved heterogeneity to derive robust causal inferences. Our findings reveal that a 1% increase in the share of the older adult population reduces short-run GDP growth by 0.31% and long-run GDP growth by 0.37%. Stronger fiscal discipline significantly attenuates the negative growth impact of ageing, mitigating the growth drag by approximately 0.077 percentage points in the short run. Moreover, higher labour force participation cushions the adverse effects of demographic shifts and positively contributes to growth in both the short and long run. These results underscore the crucial roles of sound fiscal governance and inclusive labour market policies in sustaining economic vitality amid demographic headwinds. The study offers actionable insights for policymakers to design integrated fiscal and labour market reforms that promote resilient, inclusive growth in ageing advanced economies.
Agricultural carbon emissions are a key source of nonenergy greenhouse emissions in China, yet their spatiotemporal dynamics, regional disparities and structural changes remain insufficiently explored. This study quantifies agricultural carbon emissions in 31 provinces and municipalities in China from 2001 to 2020, and examines their spatiotemporal trends, regional disparities, and structural changes using the spatial Moran index to detect spatial dependence and clustering of agricultural emissions, and Theil index to decompose regional disparities. The results show that total agricultural carbon emissions rose from about 906 million tons in 2001 to a peak of approximately 1021 million tons in 2015, before declining to around 930 million tons in 2020. Spatial analysis with the global Moran's I index reveals a consistent, and at times significant, positive spatial auto-correlation, indicating regional clustering of emissions. The Theil index showed a slight decrease over the study period, reflecting a narrowing of interregional disparities, particularly between eastern and northeastern provinces. Structural analysis identifies livestock and poultry as the largest contributors, accounting for about 44% of total emissions, followed by land-use-related emissions (about 38.5%) and methane emissions from rice cultivation. These results underscore both the spatial concentration and the changing composition of agricultural emissions, highlighting the need for spatial coordinated and sector targeted mitigation policies, especially in livestock-intensive regions, to achieve emission reduction while maintaining agricultural output productivity in China's low carbon transition.
The present study explores how changes in exchange rates effect trade between Mexico and the United States, factoring in both exchange rate volatility and the impact of a third country's currency (the Chinese Yuan). Exports and imports of 10 industries between Mexico and the U.S. were unified utilizing the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) methodology. Our analysis indicates that Mexico's main export sectors exhibit high responsiveness to the bilateral exchange rate, its volatility, and third-country effects over both the long and short term. By contrast, Mexico's imports are primarily affected by variations in these same three factors. Additionally, income levels in both countries are found to significantly impact bilateral trade flows across both time horizons.
Using a Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) fixed effects model, this study evaluates the factors contributing to the efficiency of indirect tax revenue mobilisation incorporating the role of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) and tax administration quality, the dimensions which have remained unexplored for Indian states. The empirical findings demonstrate that while ICT use enhances revenue mobilisation efficiency in major states, it adversely affects the efficiency in minor states. Governance quality doesn't significantly contribute to improving revenue efficiency in either major or minor states. Although both tax regimes adversely affect revenue efficiency, the Goods and Services Tax (GST) regime ensures greater tax efficiency compared to the Value Added Tax (VAT) regime, as GST significantly improves efficiency in minor states relative to the VAT regime.
This note studies the effect of production taxation on entry in a standard Spence-Dixit model of entry game. Taxation reduces both the sunk cost thresholds that block and deter the potential competitor's entry. However, the interaction between taxation and market structure can have important policy implications: in fact, for appropriate ranges of tax rates, a contested monopoly can generate higher tax revenues and social welfare than a Stackelberg duopoly.
This study analyzes how a reduction in family business inheritance tax affects the wage gap between large firms and small and medium-sized firms. Based on a general equilibrium model, this study is the first to analyze the relationship between family business inheritance tax and the indicated wage gap. Although previous studies address the relationship between general inheritance tax and wealth inequality, they are silent about this relationship. The calibrated results obtained using data from Korea show that a reduction in the family business inheritance tax rate for entrepreneurs of small and medium-sized firms decreases the wage gap between these and large firms. Conversely, a reduction in the family business inheritance tax rate for entrepreneurs of large firms increases this wage gap.
Our study examines the short-run Phillips Curve relationship using sub-national data from India to analyze inflation and unemployment dynamics during the inflation targeting era (IT) framework under the Global Phillips Curve (GPC) framework. It aims to identify whether the established relationship varies across different inflation regimes. Using panel data from 15 Indian states from January 2016 to May 2022, we employed the Accelerationist Phillips Curve (APC) and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) forms of the GPC. We analyzed the relationship using panel-data econometric techniques. We found no statistically significant Phillips Curve relationship on average; only isolated positive coefficients occur in a few short regimes with small samples, which might be random and transitory. The study indicates that inflation dynamics may differ across sub-national levels, possibly weakening the unemployment-inflation trade-off in India's informal labor market. The findings suggest that traditional macroeconomic tools based on the national Phillips Curve, like monetary interventions, may not be practical in India.
Investigating the hedging effectiveness of green finance against climate risks is essential for optimizing investment strategies. This study employs the rolling-window wavelet correlation method to capture the time-varying and multiscale relationships among green bond (GB), green stock (GS), climate physical risk index (PRI), and transition risks index (TRI). The empirical results show that GB serves as a stable short-term hedge against climate transition and physical risks, supported by their fixed-income nature and alignment with climate-oriented investment demand. In contrast, GS correlates negatively with TRI in the short run but shows strengthening hedging ability against physical risks after mid-2018. Over longer horizons, GS demonstrates stronger hedging effectiveness against both risk types, with relatively consistent performance in hedging against physical risks. But GB shows weaker and less consistent hedging capacity, often correlating negatively at the fortnightly scale and partially turning positive monthly. Despite both assets remaining vulnerable to systemic financial disruptions, their complementary hedging profiles support strategic diversification within multihorizon portfolios to improve climate risk resilience. Against the backdrop of the escalating climate crisis, this paper offers strategic insights for investors, policymakers, and regulators to enhance climate risk resilience through green finance.JEL Classification: C32, Q54, G12
At policy level, the remedy for the housing affordability trend and crisis experienced in Australia and internationally is increasingly focusing on raising supply above historic levels of output. This Policy Analysis evaluates how effective increased housing supply is and can be in tackling house price affordability trends. A long-run model of house prices and housing affordability is estimated (1974-2023) to identify the required levels of dwelling output to stabilise and improve the house price to income ratio. Achieving Australian aspirational supply targets would only marginally improve the price-income ratio, and only after 20 years of above average supply. One reason for this is the income elasticity of demand relative to the price elasticity of demand. The results show that unrealistic levels of dwelling output is required to materially affect house price affordability and discusses industry-originating barriers, the income elasticity of prices and distribution of new supply to complement current planning and deregulation debates.
This study addresses the critical problem of how Australian economic policy uncertainty (AEPU) affects the performance of the traditional energy sector, a topic of increasing importance given the sector's volatility and Australia's evolving policy landscape. Previous research has established that economic policy uncertainty generally depresses energy sector performance globally; however, there is a notable gap regarding non-linear and frequency-dependent effects specific to Australia's traditional energy market. To fill this gap, the study employs a novel methodological approach combining quantile-on-quantile regression with wavelet analysis. The empirical results reveal that, in the short run, uncertainty in Australian economic policies exerts weak and inconsistent effects on the performance of the traditional energy sector. In contrast, medium-and long-run results clearly demonstrate that prolonged uncertainty regarding Australian economic policies leads to a downturn in the performance of the traditional energy sector in the country. Building on these insights, we offer actionable recommendations: clearer, stable long-term energy policies can buffer the sector from AEPU's drag; fossil-fuel firms should strengthen liquidity and adopt phased investment plans under economic policy uncertainty.
This study estimates how international trade integration, proxied by global value chain (GVC) participation, affects carbon emissions, addressing endogeneity with fixed effects and system GMM. We find that deeper GVC integration increases CO2 per capita, CO2 per GDP, emissions from electricity and heat production, and CO2 intensity. Disaggregation shows stronger emission effects for backward than forward participation. We also document nonlinearities: environmental impacts rise as countries become more deeply embedded in global production networks. Heterogeneity is salient: developing economies and energy-intensive regions, especially East Asia and the Pacific, experience the largest increases. These results highlight the need for green trade policies, cleaner production technologies, and stronger environmental regulations to mitigate emissions while sustaining global trade. The study aligns with SDG 9 (industry, innovation, and infrastructure), SDG 12 (responsible consumption and production), and SDG 13 (climate action) by emphasizing the importance of low-carbon industrialization and sustainable trade practices.
We estimate the commodity price pass-through to consumer price and food price inflation for the case of Indonesia using quarterly data from Q1 2000 to Q3 2023. In the analysis, we consider the aggregate commodity price as well as its two components, namely, energy price and non-energy price. Employing the local projections method, we find evidence supporting significant spillover from changes in aggregate commodity price, energy price and non-energy price to consumer price inflation, which is apparent when the commodity price changes are positive, and the inflation level is high. We also document significant responses of the food prices to changes in the commodity prices under high inflation environment. Among the three commodity prices, the non-energy price seems to have the largest pass-through to both consumer and food price inflation. Moreover, as compared to its effects on consumer price inflation, the non-energy price pass-through to food price inflation is relatively stronger. These results bear important implications for monetary policy responses amid wide swings in commodity prices.
This article introduces the productivity heterogeneity of Melitz, M. J. (2003). Econometrica , 71(6), 1695–1725 into the footloose entrepreneur model of Forslid, R., and Ottaviano, G. I. (2003). Journal of Economic Geography , 3(3), 229–240 to explore the industrial spatial distribution between two regions. We suggest a negative relationship between the shape parameter of the Pareto distribution and the share of skilled workers in a region. It enhances the escape competition effect to avoid agglomeration when the share of skilled workers in a region increases to generate intensified competition. This effect allows the equal distribution outcome to be sustained for a larger range of transport costs.
Based on data spanning January 2001 to December 2022, this paper employs the frequency connectedness method to measure the cross-frequency volatility spillovers between the financial industry and other industries in the Chinese stock market, and utilizes the joint impulse response function to examine the joint impact of multiple dimensions of fintech on these spillover effects. The measurement of multiple dimensions of fintech innovatively employs the TF-IDF algorithm, utilizing a vast array of Chinese news reports. The findings reveal strong total volatility spillovers and risk vulnerability across sectors, which are significantly amplified under external shocks. Moreover, spillover effects in the short-term frequency band (within 1 year) are more pronounced than those in the long-term frequency band (beyond 1 year), suggesting that cross-sector risk contagion diminishes over the long run as policies improve. Further analysis indicates that fintech enhances short-term volatility spillovers while mitigating long-term spillovers. Additionally, the influence of various fintech dimensions on volatility spillovers exhibits heterogeneity, underscoring the dual role of fintech development across different frequency domains. This paper reveals the frequency domain heterogeneity in how fintech influences inter-sector risk contagion, aiding in understanding the new characteristics of financial risk transmission under the backdrop of fintech, thereby assisting in the comprehensive construction of a risk warning system under new circumstances.
Environmental sustainability has emerged as a primary policy imperative in the global battle against climate change. Yet, there remains a notable deficiency in efforts to ensure sustainability and formulate effective policies, particularly within developing economies. To address this crucial gap, we investigate the inverted load capacity curve (ILCC) hypothesis, analyzing the influence of life expectancy, environmental policy stringency, and renewable energy consumption on environmental sustainability across BRICS nations from 1998 to 2020. Utilizing annual panel data, we introduce the inverted load capacity factor (ILCF) variable as a more comprehensive measure of load capacity excess, essential for assessing environmental sustainability. Employing heterogeneous panel data techniques, including canonical cointegrating regression and the fully modified least squares estimator, we account for cross-sectional dependence and slope heterogeneity to yield unbiased and consistent estimates. Our findings underscore several key points: firstly, life expectancy and economic growth positively impact ILCF; secondly, increased renewable energy consumption contributes to enhanced environmental sustainability; thirdly, the effect of environmental policy stringency on ILCF varies; finally, the validity of the ILCC hypothesis is confirmed for BRICS nations, suggesting an inverted U-shaped relationship between real income and ILCF. These results advocate for prioritized renewable energy investments by decision-makers and policymakers in BRICS countries.
