ABSTRACT This study examines the short‐ and long‐run relationship between Türkiye's 5‐year sovereign credit default swap (CDS) premium and monthly exports during 2010M1–2023M12 using the augmented autoregressive distributed lag (A‐ARDL) approach. Because the dependent variable is total export value in US dollars, the empirical analysis measures export stability in a macroeconomic sense rather than environmental or multidimensional export sustainability. The system‐level cointegration tests indicate a long‐run relationship among exports, CDS, CPI, REER and BIST 100; they do not establish pairwise CDS–export cointegration. The long‐run CDS coefficient is statistically insignificant, whereas the one‐month‐lagged short‐run CDS coefficient is negative. In the long run, CPI is negatively associated with exports and BIST 100 is positively associated. These findings distinguish the short‐run sovereign‐risk effect from the long‐run roles of price stability and capital‐market performance in Türkiye.
We study the effects of a universal childcare subsidy (UCS) on maternal labor supply and fertility in South Korea, which has experienced sharp reductions in fertility rates. Our difference-in-differences and synthetic difference-in-differences approaches show little evidence that the subsidy increased maternal labor supply and total fertility rates. Additionally, there is no evidence of an effect on parents' welfare measured by subjective well-being. Compared to studies on government childcare subsidies in Europe and North America-countries with relatively higher fertility rates-our study sheds new light that government subsidies for childcare may play a limited role in encouraging maternal labor supply or fertility in countries with high childcare costs.
This study examines whether realized tax refunds are associated with higher R&D intensity among Chinese high-tech listed firms, and whether long-term bank borrowing weakens part of this relationship. Using panel data for 957 A-share high-tech firms from 2011 to 2023, we find that tax refunds scaled by total assets are positively associated with firm R&D intensity. The estimates also show that tax refunds are positively associated with long-term bank loans, while long-term bank loans are negatively associated with R&D intensity after controlling for firm characteristics, year effects and industry effects. We therefore interpret long-term borrowing as a potential offsetting channel rather than as definitive causal mediation. Additional mechanism tests suggest that this offset is related to financing structure and financing constraints, and heterogeneity tests show stronger debt-related crowding-out patterns among state-owned, smaller and younger firms. The findings highlight both the innovation-supporting role of fiscal relief and the importance of credit-market frictions in shaping its effectiveness.
To better understand the Fear of Floating phenomenon in exchange rate regime evolution, this paper advances the method to identify state dependence and establishes four new findings and explanations. First, the introduction of state dependence into multinomial discrete choice model and calculation of marginal effect corresponding to the parameter estimates are important to correctly explain the exchange rate regimes evolution. Second, both spurious and true state dependence factors can explain the Fear of Floating phenomenon. Third, the estimates of capital account openness are contrary to the prediction of classical theories but are consistent with the Fear of Floating phenomenon in developing economies. Finally, the degree of financial market development cannot affect the regime choices directly, but its non-linear impact mechanism can further strengthen the explanatory power of this study.
In the context of escalating global challenges, including trade frictions and supply chain disruptions, countries face the complex task of aligning environmental regulation with economic objectives. Against this backdrop, this paper develops a theoretical North-South trade model to examine the trade-offs involved in simultaneously safeguarding environmental quality, maintaining international competitiveness and preserving consumer welfare. Distinct from the existing literature, the analysis explicitly incorporates North-South heterogeneity and highlights the role of consumer welfare in shaping policy outcomes. Three principal findings emerge. First, the optimal environmental tax is lower than the Pigouvian benchmark, reflecting the need to mitigate adverse effects on consumer welfare. Second, tariff barriers can function as a strategic instrument to support the implementation of more stringent domestic environmental taxes, thereby facilitating international policy coordination. Third, asymmetries between the North and South play a critical role in determining the scope for environmental policy cooperation, with policy stringency contingent on factors such as technological capacity and the magnitude of environmental damages. Overall, the findings underscore the importance of carefully designed environmental policies that reconcile economic and ecological objectives within an interdependent global framework.
