In one of the most polarized legislatures in the United States, partisan and ideological divisions among Colorado lawmakers often overlap with differences in identity and experience. Although the chasm between Democrats and Republicans on salient social and economic issues is wide, bipartisan policymaking still occurs. Democratic successes in 2022 extended their streak to four consecutive election cycles of remaining even or gaining seats in both the Colorado House and Senate. Unified government with expanded majorities has allowed Democrats to advance their agenda through the state budget with relative ease, and seldom used parliamentary tactics helped bring about liberal policy change in contentious issue areas including gun control. In budgetary politics, the fiscal constraints of the Taxpayer's Bill of Rights (TABOR) currently do more to impede the progressive agenda than dwindling opposition votes from minority party Republicans. Statewide ballot measures have also driven policy change, at times in conservative directions, on consequential tax and fiscal policy issues. Coloradans have demonstrated an openness to government reform in some areas, but less so when it comes to ballot measures affecting TABOR.
In late February 2024, the New Mexico State Legislature closed the books on a relatively uneventful session. After successive years of record revenues and double-digit budget expansion, the legislature modestly reigned in spending increases to less than 7%. Legislators continued their recent trend of stashing some of the state's massive surplus in newly created endowment funds, hoping to insulate the state from future economic downturns. The legislative action reflects a growing consensus that boom and bust budgeting does not provide for a stable, long-term financial future. Legislators still managed to approve a $10 billion dollar plus budget, set aside reserves upwards of 30%, and spend almost $1.4 billion in capital projects big and small. Though the 30-day session is short, lawmakers still found time to deal with some social issues (public safety, health care, education, and the environment) and some issues personal to the legislature. Though only 72 pieces of legislation passed, the legislature managed to reset the compass on New Mexico's financial structure while tinkering with current social concerns.
The FY 2024-25 budgeting cycle in California was far less chaotic than the previous year, when a record $100 billion budget surplus morphed into a widening deficit. This time, Democratic Gavin Newsom and the Democratic controlled legislature had to tackle that mounting deficit as the state's economy stalled, specifically among the wealthiest Californians, who fund a large portion of the state's government. Neither Newsom nor the two new Democratic legislative leaders had experienced a budget deficit in office, which made coordination additionally tricky. The state is in much better shape than previous deficits, however, with a large reserve and strong budget resilience among its leaders. One problem- the governor increasingly reports different budget numbers than the state's nonpartisan Legislative Analyst Office (LAO), which assesses the administration's budget for the legislature.
The 67th Wyoming Legislature's 20-day budget session was convened Thursday, February 8, 2024, for the beginning of its work in Cheyenne. This year, outside of its typical budget work, over 360 bills were brought forward by both legislative committees and individual legislators. These bills ranged from property tax relief to health care. In the end, on Friday March 8th, the final biennial General Fund budget was close to $3.8 billion – up approximately $100 million from the previous biennium. Deep ideological divides within the state's dominant Republican Party drove much debate and show no signs of abating before next year's general session.
Arizona's evolving political landscape has become a key factor in its fiscal outlook. Once a solid Republican stronghold, the state has shifted to swing status, as seen in President Joe Biden's narrow 0.3% margin win in the 2020 election and a closely divided state legislature. Strong economic growth in prior years led to FY23 General Fund revenues being revised upwards from $15.9 billion to $17.9 billion. Despite this, declining tax revenues and increased spending, particularly on a universal school voucher program, created a projected $1.71 billion deficit for FY25. The state's Republican-led legislature implemented a 2.5% flat income tax and expanded school vouchers, significantly impacting revenue. To address the deficit, the FY25 budget, finalized at $16.8 billion, included cuts to many programs, most notably a $430 million reduction in the Arizona Water Infrastructure and Financing Authority. The political status quo remained consistent after the 2024 election, where Republicans won a marginal gain in both chambers of the state legislature, Democrats kept control of the U.S. Senate seat up for reelection, and the U.S. House seats remained at 6–3 for Republicans and Democrats, respectively. This report examines the fiscal trajectory, proposed tax policy changes, and political state driving Arizona's FY25 budget negotiations.
As in 2023, Alaska's politics seem to be benefitting from a more moderate and collegial policymaking environment and possibly even more sensible budgetary policy. In part, this seems due to Alaska's adoption of a new election system which in 2022 generated a more moderate set of legislative coalitions than the previous several election cycles. These moderate coalitions may be short-lived, however, as an effort to repeal the new election system is underway. And even with our relatively moderate State House and State Senate coalitions, headwinds and controversies remain, especially issues around public education funding.
Hawai'i's FY 2025 budget reflected the state's efforts to balance recovery from the August 2023 Maui wildfires with ongoing challenges such as housing affordability, economic diversification, and climate resilience. The biennial budget initially authorized $44 billion in spending for FY 2024 and FY 2025, but it was revised to include approximately $600 million for wildfire recovery and over $500 million in hazard pay for public employees. Governor Josh Green's administration prioritized housing development, tax cuts, and long-term recovery efforts while addressing the immediate demands of the devastating wildfires. The budget process highlighted the state's reliance on tourism for revenue, raising serious concerns about the long-term sustainability of Hawai'i's primary industry. Lawmakers successfully maintained core services and passed historic tax cuts, but some remain concerned that the state's high levels of spending are unsustainable given recent economic forecasts. This article explores the legislative and political negotiations that shaped Hawai'i's FY 2025 budget. It examines how lawmakers sought to manage short-term disaster recovery while making progress on the state's long-term goals of promoting economic diversity and lowering the exorbitant cost of living in the islands.
The 2024 Oregon legislative session, spanning a concise 35-day period, marked a return to bipartisan collaboration resulting in significant policy advancements. Major reforms enacted include the implementation of campaign finance limits, modifications to drug decriminalization policies, and the introduction of a substantial housing initiative by Governor Tina Kotek. These actions stand in contrast to the previous year's divisive Republican walkout, which had halted legislative proceedings in protest against proposed bills on gun control, education, and climate change. This walkout led to a new ballot measure that penalized unexcused absences among legislators, threatening the ability of boycotting members to run for re-election. Despite the prior tensions, the 2024 session was distinguished by cooperation, as evidenced by both parties acknowledging its historic success in achieving policy goals. The budget passed on June 25, 2023, outlined a total of $121.264 billion for the 2023-25 period, reflecting a decrease from the previous budget due to a reduction in Federal Funds, counterbalanced by an increase in the General Fund and Lottery Funds. Detailed resource allocations were influenced by the May 2023 revenue forecast, with specific adjustments made during the 2024 session to align with the biennium's objectives.
Legislative staffers are among legislators' most valuable assets and their appointment by legislators is strategic. Past research has focused on how legislative staffer appointments help legislators meet policy or constituency service goals. In this article I advance the literature by theorizing how minority staffers are utilized. I hypothesize, and show using novel data from the California State Assembly, that state legislators disproportionally place Hispanic and Asian American Pacific Islander staffers in constituency service positions. This may be done as an effort to provide a form of surrogate descriptive representation. Concerningly, because minority staffers are more likely to be placed in constituency service positions, minority staffers are less likely to be placed in policy orientated positions where they might have the most influence over substantive policymaking. This leads to a situation where minority staffers are placed in visible constituency service appointments but continue to be underrepresented in key policy appointments.
In this paper, we discuss the political and budgetary landscape of Washington State. With consistent Democratic leadership—in the governor's mansion and with respect to legislative priorities—the state has been able to advance a more liberal policy agenda than states without Democratic majorities. In this session, the legislature voted to invest in the development of affordable housing, behavioral health initiatives, and policies designed to curb climate change. However, ballot initiatives in November might serve as a significant impediment to these policy pursuits. Voters will decide whether to keep the cap-and-trade climate policy, the capital gains tax, and the long-term care program for the state. The cap-and-trade policy, as well as the capital gains tax, serves as a means of revenue generation and the elimination of these resources would upend the budget in important ways moving forward.
In June of 2023, the Nevada Legislature passed the state's 2023-2025 budget. Buoyed by continued increases in the state's share of the sales taxes and revenue tied to gaming, entertainment, and tourism as well as business activity, the $10.9 billion general fund budget was the largest in Nevada's history. After four years of unified Democratic control of state government, the 2023 session was the first budget passed under divided government since 2017. While partisan and interbranch tensions were ever present as evidenced by a record 75 vetoed bills, Nevada's Republican governor and Democratic-controlled legislature supported substantial investments in K-12 education and state employees. Enthusiasm for long-term spending obligations, however, was tempered by the fact that the general fund budget's two largest revenue drivers—sales and gaming taxes—fluctuate with macroeconomic conditions. The continued reliance on these revenue sources perpetuates Nevada's history of booms and busts and undermines the state's ability to make long-term investments in its human capital and physical infrastructure. Consequently, the budget choices adopted by the governor and legislature reflected broad compromises and investments, while other areas, including costly but much needed reforms to state government, went unaddressed.
The State of Hawai‘i’s $37.2 billion biennium operating budget for FY 2024 and FY 2025 provided substantial tax relief for vulnerable residents, and authorized new spending to improve access to affordable housing and health care. This article explores the policy decisions and conflicts among legislators and the newly elected Governor during the budget approval process. Although Governor Josh Green and the Democratic leadership agreed on the state’s most pressing policy priorities, the Legislature rejected Green’s proposal for broad middle-class tax relief in favor of more targeted benefits for low-income families. There were also several major disputes among legislators during the budget approval process, including a fight over the level of education spending, and the controversial creation of a $200 million discretionary fund for the Governor’s use. Beyond the budget, the paper explores several ongoing challenges, including Hawai‘i’s economic dependence on tourism, population decline, skyrocketing housing costs, government corruption, and the tragic fires in West Maui.
The 2023 legislative session was a long and productive one in New Mexico. The annual session required legislators to pass a budget while juggling the social and cultural issues of the day. On the budget front, lawmakers were fortunate to witness record breaking revenues as oil and gas production and receipts soared. Simultaneously, tax collections increased and the state economy finally completed its pandemic recovery. Record surpluses and rosy forecasts meant that lawmakers could significantly expand the state budget (over 13%) and still plot how to secure the state’s financial future. Education funding and capital outlay projects were the clear winners. On the social front, bills related to guns, crimes, abortion, and elections all shared the limelight with appropriations requests. At the end of the day, the 2023 legislature passed its largest ever annual budget, while also passing tax rebates and expanded tax credits. Lawmakers took steps towards stabilizing the long term flow of oil and gas money through permanent funds while, on the social front, strengthening abortion access, enacting safe storage gun laws, providing increased funds for public safety, and passing election code reforms.
Advertising studies commonly examine the effects of one-sided treatments. However, political communication campaigns are competitive environments where voters are likely to hear more than one perspective. Because of this dynamic, the persuasive effects of single-sided ads may be less likely to hold in a competitive environment. When respondents are exposed to arguments from both sides of a ballot proposition issue, can the disclosure of a credible group help an advertisement overcome prior opinions? I address this question using a randomized experiment that includes ballot proposition campaign ads. In the experiments, I manipulate the pretreatment environment by exposing some respondents to a newspaper editorial in order to provide them with prior opinions that might cause them to resist subsequent advertisements. I also vary the presence or absence of campaign finance disclosure within the advertisements. In all cases, the presence of a credible editorial is associated with a change in support for the initiative. However, the use of a credible campaign finance disclosure has a far less consistent effect. While campaign finance disclosures from credible groups can help counteract prior beliefs that citizens may hold, I find that the magnitude of these changes is somewhat small.
The 2023 budgeting cycle in California was much different from the previous year. California’s finances, always topsy-turvy, faced a dramatic reversal of fortune as surplus turned to deficit. Nonetheless, the state was able to weather the storm and avoid deep spending cuts, thanks to a combination of good economic times in years past and politically expedient decisions by the Governor and Legislature. However, delayed tax collections and projections for structural deficits, even absent a recession, meant storm clouds were on the horizon as the year drew to a close. The tough decisions that were sidestepped in 2023 might have to be made in 2024.
The 2022 legislative session in Washington State saw legislators returning to in-person deliberations after the worst days of the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite being physically close, the partisan and ideological differences were as large as ever. The ever-expanding Democratic majority had unprecedented revenue to spend, while Republicans argued for more fiscal responsibility. Given their dominant position in both legislative chambers, Democrats were able to make significant investments in addressing homelessness, mental health, and education.
The political and budget landscape of Oregon once again can be characterized by incivility and polarization as exemplified by the 6-week walkout of Senate Republicans denying the chamber a quorum to conduct business including the 2023-25 budget. Eventually the Republicans returned, and a budget was passed after the Democrats made concessions on abortion, gender affirming care, and gun bills. The 2023 economic forecast was surprisingly positive given the Federal Reserve’s reaction to persistent inflation, the governor and legislature chose three very difficult issues as their priorities: (1) homelessness and housing affordability, (2) mental health and addiction services, and (3) improved early literacy and K-12 education outcomes. There have been major state leadership changes in 2022 and 2023, although the shifts featured familiar faces in new positions more than any deep change. As the 2022 elections demonstrated, the rural-urban split festers. Meanwhile, the federal spigot from COVID funding slowly dries out, although federal infrastructure and economic development programs advance. In sum, the state’s steadiness could be on thin ice, especially with Oregon’s infamous “kicker” law returning a record $5.6 billion of tax revenue back to taxpayers.
What to do with a windfall? That question loomed large in Wyoming’s 2023 general legislative session, after a 2022 budget session focused on revenue shortfalls and budget reductions. As such, Wyoming’s rich history of “boom-and-bust” economics continues, albeit with increasing skepticism among the state’s elected officials. The 2023 legislative session saw notable new spending in areas such as property tax relief and public employee wages but also produced significant financial investment in many of Wyoming’s “rainy day” funds.
Alaska in 2023 is experiencing the first results of the new election system—the top-four all-party primary and Ranked Choice Voting. So far, that system seems to be generating results consistent with what advocates expected; a more moderate and collegial policy-making environment, and possibly even more sensible budgetary policy. This, coupled with relatively strong (though declining) oil prices, and abundant sovereign wealth led to a relatively low-drama, low-conflict budgeting process in spring 2023, as well as relatively moderate budgeting outcomes.
