Understanding economy-wide material flows is of increasing importance as industries and governments seek to develop secure supply chains for critical minerals while mitigating negative social and environmental impacts. To advance research merging economy-wide material flow accounting with economic impact analysis, we adapt the integrated hybrid input-output analysis framework to build a mixed-unit model of mineral commodity processing in the United States. As a test case we apply the approach to fluorspar and derived fluorine-based chemicals, presenting one of a few models of fluorspar's domestic supply chain. We then estimate demand for this critical mineral that would be induced by projected sales of two emerging technologies, semiconductors and lithium-ion batteries, which are expected to contribute substantially to increasing demand. We find that near-term U.S. demand for fluorspar and its derivatives for use in semiconductors but not for use in lithium-ion batteries may surpass recent economy-wide domestic consumption of these materials. Modeling an increase in U.S. production of advanced chips in line with expressed targets results in 1% to 5% more fluorspar demand per year compared to the baseline. Global sensitivity analysis demonstrates an approach to factor prioritization applied to physical input-output table (PIOT) construction. We find the two major sources of physical flow data uncertainty, the ratios used to allocate national use to industries and the assumption used to partition exports into their domestic and foreign components, contribute about equally to uncertainty in the output. However, we also find the uncertainty in choice between several approaches to compiling the allocation ratios leads to most uncertainty in total physical output.
Sustainability is essentially about enabling everyone to live a good life within planetary boundaries. Analysing this goal is hindered by problems of definition, measurement, and the large number of relevant factors. Comprehensive assessments of countries' resource requirements and emissions (i.e. their socioeconomic metabolism or SEM) related to human wellbeing are missing. To advance the field, we develop a multi-dimensional set of SEM indicators and analyse its relationship with the number of ‘years of good life’ (YoGL) of their inhabitants. The wellbeing indicator ‘YoGL’ measures years a person can expect to live above absolute poverty while enjoying health and life satisfaction. A descriptive analysis of ~110 countries from 1990 to 2019 reveals saturation curves: strong association of SEM and YoGL at low and weaker relations at higher levels of SEM and wellbeing. In a range of panel analyses we introduce mediating factors capturing how countries' provisioning systems turn resources into well-being relevant services (e.g. GDP, education, pollution or inequality). The association between SEM indicators and YoGL mostly disappears or even becomes inverse when mediating factors are considered. GDP is positively associated with YoGL in many but not all analyses. Education is positively and air pollution negatively associated with YoGL when the other explanatory variables are controlled. A cluster analysis of high-YoGL countries identifies a group enjoying highest YoGL at intermediate levels of resource use and emissions. Our results imply that raising wellbeing for all while reducing resource use and emissions will require moving beyond simple ‘decoupling’ and resource-use efficiency approaches.
Ecological Macroeconomic Integrated Assessment Models (EM-IAMs) have emerged as tools for exploring post-growth narratives and challenging the dominant discourse of continuous economic growth. Their use may be strategically advantageous: by employing modelling approaches that are epistemically legitimate within economics, EM-IAMs can contest the growth paradigm with their own tools. Yet, the framing of socio-ecological processes in EM-IAMs, through quantification and evaluative logics, risks interfering with the other goal of EM-IAMs; to address social inequality and injustices. As such, EM-IAMs risk operating as what ecologist Langdon Winner coined as ‘conceptual Trojan horse’. We question whether EM-IAMs may truly provide “robust modelling tools to explore alternative future scenarios, enabling the ex-ante evaluation of direct and indirect effects of policies on well-being, employment, and the ecosystem” (Ecological Economics, 2025). Our doubts rest upon complexity that does not reduce uncertainty, the politics of model simplification, the limitations of EM-IAM models for aspects that resist quantification, the reinforcement of historical power imbalances, and, ultimately, the performative effects of models themselves. We suggest that, rather than extending EM-IAMs to incorporate well-being analysis, we should adopt a different approach to modelling, learning from ecological values; appreciating diversity, variability in space and time, self-regulation, and entanglements.
Pasture degradation represents a major challenge to the sustainability of Brazilian livestock production, with impacts that go beyond environmental damage and extend to economic and social dimensions. Few studies have sought to assess the magnitude of these impacts, particularly at the municipal level. Accordingly, this study aimed to quantify the effects of pasture degradation on municipal economies between 2000 and 2022. The case study focused on municipalities in the state of Minas Gerais, which is known for its long-standing tradition in livestock production. We used a methodological approach combining fixed-effects panel data econometric models to assess economic impacts and local Moran's I spatial autocorrelation analysis to identify spatial patterns of degradation. The econometric analysis indicated that pasture degradation had a negative impact on key economic indicators, such as GDP per capita and production values in major agribusiness sectors. The spatial analysis revealed critical clusters of high degradation and low economic productivity, especially in eastern Minas Gerais. Overall, the findings suggest that the restoration of degraded pastures, supported by public policies such as the Low-Carbon Agriculture plan (“ABC Plan”) and the 2012 Forest Code is essential not only for meeting environmental targets but also as a strategy to enhance municipal economic and productive performance.
