We examine the competitive effects of regional airline exits in the USA between April 2019 and December 2020, leveraging the first wave of COVID-19 as a natural experiment. Using propensity score matching and difference-in-differences, we find consumers are worse off after exits, with a 15 per cent decrease in flight availability and a 5 per cent rise in fares. Longer-haul markets and those dominated by full- service carriers experience less impact. Exits also reduce connecting flights by 25 per cent. Among competing airlines, regional airlines and those with greater cash reserves increase flight availability, seating capacity, and fares.
Due to the network nature of rail systems, the opening of peripheral infrastructure sections can have spillover effects on adjacent markets. Using a unique database and a difference-in-differences methodology, we assess the capacity-based theory in the railway sector. The analysis warns of possible negative effects from the opening of a peripheral high-speed rail section, such as price increases and reduced seat availability on existing services that are extended to the new section. It also emphasises the need for effective planning and synchronisation of supply adjustments with demand growth to ensure the full benefits of new high-speed rail infrastructure.
This study investigates congestion pricing and capacity for partially privatised airports. We characterise the optimal pricing rules of three alternatives (mix pricing, single pricing per flight and single pricing per passenger) for airports with different ownerships. Our specified function approach finds that mix pricing endogenously chosen by local welfare (LW)-maximising airports may lead to the greatest social welfare, but that chosen by airline-airport joint-profit (JP)- or airport profit (AP)-maximising airports cannot. Our general function approach shows that LW- and AP-maximising airports, using single pricing per flight or per passenger, may achieve efficient investments; JP-maximising airports using mix pricing will achieve efficient investments.
Public transport in Europe is set to grow by 14 per cent from 2022 to 2025 due to decarbonisation efforts. Despite their monopoly status, many bus stations are unprofitable, lacking investment in technology and services. This study examines the financial viability of Slovenian bus stations, comparing revenues from operations and ticket sales against expenses like labour and maintenance. The average break-even fee is 3.64, with smaller stations facing higher costs. Regulatory changes are recommended to enhance profitability and efficiency, addressing a key gap in transportation economic studies. The findings offer transferable insights for countries with liberalised or mixed-ownership bus station markets, particularly in Central and Eastern Europe.
This research investigates the impact of the high-speed railway (HSR) on relative poverty from a novel perspective of HSR stations as transportation hubs by considering a case study of the Yangtze River Delta region. We find that HSRs effectively alleviate relative poverty, and the impact decreases as poverty increases. HSR internal accessibility exhibits a stronger mitigation effect on relative poverty than external accessibility. The first mechanism of HSR's mitigation effect is technological development via HSR's diffusion effect; the second mechanism is non-agricultural employment opportunities via HSR's syphoning effect. This study provides empirical support for poverty alleviation through HSR development in developed and developing nations.
This paper analyses determinants of pass-through for Germany's 2022 temporary fuel discount at its implementation and subsequent termination. Based on a unique dataset of fuel station characteristics and prices, we employ a two-stage Regression Discontinuity in Time (RDiT) methodology to estimate spatial pass-through variation. Our findings indicate that horizontal and vertical market structures exert an asymmetric influence on tax pass-through. Competitive pressure enhances price responsiveness to tax reductions, whereas we find the opposite pattern for the tax increase. Furthermore, independence from upstream markets is associated with lower tax pass-through, indicating the presence of double marginalisation.
This paper reports, by a considerable margin, the largest meta-analysis and review of values of travel time savings specifically relating to less-developed countries, notably covering walk time, wait time, headway, out-of-vehicle time, and access/egress time, in addition to in-vehicle time. The estimated meta-model recovers credible and precise variations in time valuations according to a range of variables, and there is consistency with European evidence in terms of predicted valuations and variations in them. The results should be of considerable interest to practitioners and policy makers, and they challenge the World Bank's recommendations concerning appraisal valuations in less-developed countries.
This study identifies the role of key factors explaining passenger and cargo transport demand in six regions of Vietnam in the period 2000‐22 using the Pooled Mean Group/Autoregressive Distributed Lag method. The results show that economic growth, local trade and service, and industrial activities are important factors that positively impact transport demand, while the Consumer Price Index negatively affects it. The population and land area affect passenger and cargo transport demands in different directions. This study provides additional insights into the role of factors in explaining transportation demand in localities and is a basis for forecasting transportation demand in regions.
Due to their clear causal interpretability, the potential outcome framework and complementary statistical and econometric methods for causal inference are increasingly applied to ex-post evaluation of a diverse variety of transport interventions. We attempt to present an overview of these methods from a practitioner's perspective. We start by describing the core concepts and notations of statistical causality in quantitative evaluation tasks, then summarise established analytic techniques. During this process, we introduce their backgrounds and basic ideas, and discuss transport applications. References to more technical issues and recent advances are provided accordingly. Lastly, we outline several challenges and future research directions.
This study identifies the role of key factors explaining passenger and cargo transport demand in six regions of Vietnam in the period 2000-22 using the Pooled Mean Group/Autoregressive Distributed Lag method. The results show that economic growth, local trade and service, and industrial activities are important fac tors that positively impact transport demand, while the Consumer Price Index negatively affects it. The population and land area affect passenger and cargo transport demands in different directions. This study provides additional insights into the role of factors in explaining transportation demand in localities and is a basis for forecasting transportation demand in regions.
This research develops spatial panel difference-in-differences models (SPDMs) to investigate the impacts of urban rail transit (URT) on the selectivity of population migration. Intermediate effects studies are implemented to discover the intrinsic mechanisms of the URT impacts. A heterogeneity analysis is conducted to examine the differences in the URT impacts. The regression results indicate that urban populations increase rapidly owing to the advancement of the URT system. URT is capable of increasing urban population through indirect effects. Moreover, there exist heterogeneities within the exogeneities of URT in different cities.
Following COVID-19 and a multitude of geopolitical tensions, governments across advanced economies have demonstrated renewed enthusiasm for the onshoring of manufacturing activities via public procurement. Whether this represents financial value for taxpayers is less clear. This paper addresses this question by operationalising a framework which adjusts procurement prices for additional corporate financial expenditures generated in the economy when a domestic producer is selected for purchases of passenger trains. Our findings demonstrate that onshore design and manufacture of trains can deliver substantial financial value and the best overall outcome in circumstances where domestic resources are not being gainfully utilised elsewhere.
Despite am ple ev i dence that con ges tion charges ef fec tively re duce traffic con ges tion, they have only been implemented in a handful of European cities. Through a randomised information experiment embedded in a survey across seven European countries, this paper empirically investigates whether information on their (i) ef fec tive ness and (ii) a-posteriori ac cep tance may in crease pub lic sup port for con ges tion charges. Results in di cate that, on av er age, this in for ma tion can raise ac cep tance by 9.3 and 7.1 per cent, re spec tive ly. Based on these re sults, we con clude that in for ma tion cam paigns on con ges tion charges, and their benefits for commut ers and city-dwell ers, are es sen tial for fos ter ing their pub lic sup port.
This study examines how air travel distance affects cabin class demand in the Asia-Pacific market. Analysing 69 city pairs, it finds that longer distances increase premium demand while reducing economy class demand, boosting flight frequency. Flights over 5,000 km attract more premium passengers. Regression analysis highlights distance and frequency as key factors, showing an inverse link between distance and economy demand, with premium demand rising. Comparing flights reveals growing premium demand as distances increase. The findings help airlines optimise inventory and services for profitability, emphasising the link between travel parameters and class preferences in the Asia-Pacific region.
This study investigates travel preferences and behavioural characteristics of commuters considering the in tro duc tion of customised bus (CB) ser vices in a multi-modal com mut ing sys tem. A three-level nested logit (NL) model consisting of two two-level NL mod els is established and calibrated by stated pref er enceoff-revealed pref er ence sur vey data, to an a lyse the travel mode choice be hav iour of CB us ers and po ten tial pas sen gers. The re sults in di cate that the three-level NL model is more ef fec tive and rea son able than the two-level NL mod el, us ing travel time and travel cost as mode choice rec og ni tion var i ables. Marginal ef fects pro vide man age ment in sights for attracting com mut ers to choose pub lic transportation modes.
This paper focuses on bidding competition among carriers in the ocean container industry. Using a data set of 23,614 bids from nine carriers by a European retailer in 2017, we apply a hedonic pricing framework to identify differences in the average bids. We find that differences between carriers have little impact on the variation in bids. We further disentangle differences at the contract level using conditional fixed-effect Logit regressions. Among the various carriers, the Chinese state-owned carrier COSCO is much more likely to submit a lower bid than its competitors when there are many bidders.
This study examines the impact of the 2021 container shipping disruptions on US agricultural trade, utilising a non-linear panel event study methodology and detailed port-level trade data. We find that US containerised agricultural exports were 22 per cent lower than anticipated from May 2021 to January 2022, resulting in a considerable export loss of about USD 10 billion. Our analysis highlights regional and product-specific variations in trade effects, with ports in the Western and Southern USA experiencing the most severe impacts. We also document considerable treatment heterogeneity according to the customs region, export destination, freight costs, and local labour shortages.
We examine the effect of the Alaska Airlines-Virgin America merger on quality. Employing difference-in- differences, we find the merger leads to an increase in delays, proportions of flights cancelled or delayed, pad ding, and flight time. In addition, routes with carriers overlapping pre-merger have experienced a larger quality reduction than routes without overlap. Our evidence indicates that competition helps improve quality. Furthermore, we observe a smaller increase in arrival delays in short-haul flights compared to long-haul counterparts. We document how a merger involving a hub carrier and a point-to-point network, where pre- merger overlap was few, could lead to some significant quality reductions.
The hedonic price model and the quantile regression method are employed to estimate the capitalisation influence of rail transit on residential property in relation to the proximity of stations and different phases. The value lift effect occurred after the formal planning was announced and increased gradually, with the highest premium found during the operation phase. A rail transit proximity premium is lowest in high-priced segments, and highest in low-priced segments where public transportation matters most for residents. The study contributes an enhanced understanding of the spatio-temporal variations in the proximity premium of rail transit in a developing country setting.
Theoretical work on auctions has shown conceptual benefits of awarding contracts to the bidder offering the best combination of price and quality, rather than the lowest bidder. Correspondingly, EU policy on public procurement promotes such multi-criteria bid evaluation, which is already common in Europe. However, very few empirical studies have examined the effects of this policy. This study analyses panel data on monitored quality in Swedish public bus service contracts awarded using either mechanism. We do not find that the studied implementations of award mechanisms perform differently and conclude that the superiority of the currently promoted mechanism remains uncertain.
