This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of policies and economic incentives aimed at developing a renewable hydrogen industry in Australia. As global decarbonisation efforts intensify, renewable hydrogen is emerging as a potential substitute for fossil fuels. However, substantial technological and economic challenges must be overcome to achieve competitiveness and widespread adoption. This study examines both demand- and supply-side policies, presenting a novel taxonomy to guide Australian policymakers in shaping effective strategies. A structured desktop assessment is then applied to key policy instruments and to Australia's current policy mix, identifying strengths in supply-side support but weaker coverage of demand creation, price competitiveness and market formation. To complement this assessment, a stakeholder survey of government and industry participants is used to evaluate the importance and adequacy of current policy settings. The survey identifies the largest shortfalls in reliable demand creation, access to low-cost renewable electricity, predictable pricing signals and long-term policy certainty. It also shows that these gaps translate directly into commercial requirements, including long-term offtake contracts, high certainty thresholds and a persistent risk premium for investment. The findings suggest that Australia's policy framework is too supply-led, and that stronger demand-side and market-formation measures are required to support a scalable renewable hydrogen industry.
This study examines the impacts of fiscal decentralisation and spatial proximity on local economic growth in Vietnam, utilising panel data from 63 provinces and cities during the period 2011-2020. Spatial panel econometric models are employed to capture both the direct and indirect effects of these factors. The findings reveal that fiscal decentralisation has a positive effect on economic growth through the ratio of central government budget subsidise to local funding, while local public expenditure exerts a positive influence. Spatial proximity demonstrates substantial positive spillover effects; however, spatial competition and institutional influence from neighbouring provinces appear minor and statistically insignificant. These results underscore the critical roles of fiscal autonomy, local governance and regional spillovers in fostering local economic growth in Vietnam, offering valuable insights into the relationships between fiscal decentralisation, local growth and regional spillovers.
Obesity is one of the most prevalent health challenges in high-income countries, prompting growing policy interest in identifying its underlying determinants to inform effective interventions. This study contributes to the literature and policy debate by using long-run Australian panel data and an instrumental variable approach to estimate the causal effect of working from home on obesity. Using household panel data from Australia, we find that working from home increases the likelihood of being obese over time. Mediation analysis indicates that this relationship is primarily driven by reduced physical activity and an increased frequency of meals consumed at home, shedding light on the behavioural mechanisms through which remote work contributes to obesity.
Understanding availability versus equity in electricity access, and demographic perspectives in consumer purchase decisions is our primary motivation. An access-based index of electricity reliability gap (ERG) is constructed at rural-urban levels in each district to quantify the intensity of supply-side energy access poverty among Indian households. The average ERG between rural and urban households has reduced over the years. Estimates of ERG at regional levels shed light on the need for decentralised electricity in remote locations. The extent of power availability and the moderating effect of ERG, along with populational dimensions, on willingness towards consumer durable purchase decisions for major home appliances, brown goods, and climate control appliances, are explored using panel logistic models and validated using Propensity Score Matching. Increased power availability stimulates household willingness to buy consumer durables while higher electricity expenses demotivate the purchase decision. Education was a vital factor in computer purchases. Efforts to improve power availability can be particularly beneficial for households with significant reliability gaps, potentially driving higher consumer spending on durable goods in the region. The findings reveal that electricity infrastructure planning targeting regions with high within-region inequality can unlock appliance adoption among the most underserved, especially for utility-linked appliances like refrigerators and computers.
There are significant disparities across nations in incomes and spending. For example, consumers in the poorest countries spend more than half of their income on food, while in the richest, this is one-tenth or less. We use data from the International Comparison Program for 176 countries to estimate cross-country demand equations focusing on food and the associated Engel curve. We analyse the effects of food prices on the distribution of income and the links between the food sector and other goods and services. Also presented are measures of the "quality" of food consumption using a luxury-necessity approach, as well as projections of future world food demand.
In the context of an increasingly multipolar global financial system and heightened geopolitical risks, this paper investigates the dynamic spillovers of money flow shocks across global stock markets. Using the quantile-time frequency connectedness approach, we find a moderate level of interconnectedness among money flow shocks within G7 countries, in contrast to the weaker interconnectedness observed in BRICS countries. Furthermore, short-term spillovers tend to be more pronounced than long-term ones in both regions. While France consistently serves as a long-term transmitter of money flows within the G7 network, Russia plays a short-term transmitter role within the BRICS group. The United States is a net receiver of shocks in the short run but a net transmitter in the long run. Notably, the degree of interconnectedness increases at the extreme quantiles of money flows, particularly within BRICS markets. By identifying key transmitter and receiver countries in these international networks, the study adds to the growing body of literature on capital-flow dynamics in global equity markets. The findings also offer practical implications for policymakers, suggesting how they might better adjust macroeconomic and financial policies in response to cross-border money-flow shocks.
This paper investigates how the depth of environmental provisions embedded in regional trade agreements (RTAs) influences oil and gas trade flows, focusing on whether the intensity-rather than just the presence-of such provisions alters the behaviour of energy-importing countries. Using a novel panel dataset, our three-stage empirical strategy first employs a Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML) gravity model to assess baseline trade effects. We then apply generalised propensity score matching (GPSM) to identify the marginal impact of policy intensity, producing a dose-response analysis. Finally, a general equilibrium (GE) gravity model simulates broader macroeconomic implications. The empirical results consistently show a statistically significant negative relationship between environmental commitment and oil and gas imports. The dose-response analysis confirms that higher levels of commitment progressively reduce trade flows, while a counterfactual simulation for an India-Middle East scenario reveals negative gross domestic product (GDP) impacts for the signatories and trade diversion effects that benefit non-participating energy exporters. This study goes beyond a basic binary analysis by measuring the effects of policy intensity. In doing so, it provides new insights on the balance between strict environmental regulations and the need for energy security, offering practical guidance for policymakers.
This study examines employment outcomes of Indigenous peoples in Canada using an expanded human capital framework that includes education, health and work experience, such as internships and cooperative programmes. Despite some improvements, Indigenous employment rates remain below those of non-Indigenous Canadians, with disparities across First Nations, M & eacute;tis and Inuit populations. Using data from the 2016 Aboriginal Peoples Survey, this research assesses the impact of work experience programmes on employment status and income. Results show participation in work experience programmes increases the likelihood of employment by 12 percent, while post-secondary education and good health also improve employment prospects. Findings highlight the need to broaden human capital strategies to include work experience programmes. These results are of particular interest to policymakers in Canada and Australia seeking evidence-based strategies to improve employment outcomes and reduce economic disparities among Indigenous populations. This study is the first to empirically assess the role of work experience in Indigenous employment outcomes in Canada and provides new evidence to support Indigenous workforce development through experiential learning and holistic human capital investment.
The author recounts notable issues and developments in the Australian federal government's management of the economy over the fifty years since 1974, relying on his knowledge of events he observed as an economic commentator speaking with public servants, academics and politicians and writing several times a week in The Sydney Morning Herald and, for much of that time, The Age, Melbourne. Events include the arrival of stagflation in the early 1970s, the loss of faith in Keynesian remedies, the flirtation with Friedman's monetarism and attempts to control the money supply, the switch from fiscal policy to monetary policy as the dominant instrument for economic demand management, the rising influence of the central bank and the adoption of inflation targeting. Other issues of concern included the balance of payments, the twin deficits hypothesis and the goals of microeconomic reform, since known as neoliberalism. The paper represents reflections from a prominent economic journalist in Australia.
Climate change is a global challenge that demands collective action, especially as a significant portion of the population—more than half—lacks access to formal financial systems. Addressing these challenges is critical for achieving sustainable development (SD). In the context of global economic shifts toward digital transformation and the increasing role of digital technology in finance, digital financial inclusion (DFI) is expected to be a key driver in advancing SD across countries. This study examines the impact of DFI on SD in ASEAN countries from 2007 to 2022. Using Bayesian methods, which effectively address issues such as small sample sizes, autocorrelation and endogeneity, the results show that DFI generally promotes SD. However, when considering economic cycles, DFI can have a negative impact on SD. When examining the effects of DFI on SD in individual countries, the findings indicate that DFI positively influences SD in Indonesia, Myanmar, Thailand, Singapore and Vietnam, while it has a negative effect in Cambodia, Malaysia and the Philippines. Based on these findings, the study suggests the following policy implications.
This article is about the interaction between policymaking and research and also between policymakers and academia: what that should look like, and whether that is working as well as it could at the moment. The wealth of data and computational capabilities today, coupled with the breadth and depth of theory, could be usefully channelled into better applications to address economic issues and support policy reforms.
Conventional neoclassical trade theory predicts that China's emergence from autarky would lift the relative price of labour-intensive products in that country and lower their relative price in most trade-exposed countries in the developed world, inducing a shift in those countries towards less capital-intensive modes of production, lowering rates of growth in both labour productivity and real wages. These impacts appear to have had political resonance in the United States. In that country, sharp adjustments in the prices of traded goods and services have delivered a lower terms-of-trade, a persistent current account deficit and a trade deficit with China. In Australia, the same adjustments in international prices have delivered a much higher terms-of-trade, a narrowing in the current account deficit, even a trade surplus in some years, and a trade surplus with China. Impacts on a country's terms-of-trade, current account balance and bilateral trade balances are irrelevant to an understanding of the implications for productivity and real wages of China's embrace of globalisation. But political leaders in both the United States and Australia evidently do not get it. Captured by a mercantilist mindset, Australia's leaders celebrate higher export prices, choosing to believe a dangerous myth, that the "mining boom" has been critical to Australian prosperity in the 21st century, even though workers have done poorly. Consistent with neoclassical trade theory, the Australian mining boom provides a plausible explanation for a couple of decades of very weak productivity growth and a fall in real wages. Standard international macroeconomic analysis tells the same story. In response to China's industrial expansion, Australian policy makers should have embarked on an ambitious programme of productivity-enhancing economic reforms, as they did in implementing the tariff reforms of the late 20th century. Instead, this century's celebration of the mining boom myth has delivered a torpor of policy complacency that has sold Australian workers down the drain. Australia's economists have been far too tolerant of this complacency. We should have been using our insights to assist in the construction of narratives for the nation's future that are based on reason, not mythology.
This study estimates effective rates of protection for 33 manufacturing industries in Victoria in 1880. These estimates lead to eight observations. Notably, the effective rates of protection suggest that the magnitude of protection in late-nineteenth-century Victoria was considerably less than in the other industrialising, settler economies of Canada and the United States-to a more pronounced degree than suggested by nominal tariff levels. Also, colonial Victoria exhibits a very high correlation between nominal tariffs and effective rates of protection. This finding should enhance the confidence of economic historians in using the former as a proxy for the latter.
Using data from the Global Findex surveys conducted in 2017 and 2021, this study assesses the extent and determinants of multidimensional financial inclusion in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) over these two periods. A multidimensional financial inclusion index was constructed using the methodology of Alkire and Foster (2011). To analyse the determinants and drivers of multidimensional financial inclusion, a probit model and Fairlie's (2005) decomposition were employed. Although the results indicate an increase in the level of multidimensional financial inclusion in the WAEMU, the rate of multidimensional financial exclusion remains high. This improvement in financial inclusion between the two periods can be attributed to changes in individuals' socio-economic characteristics. The findings also reveal significant disparities in financial inclusion between men and women, as well as among WAEMU member countries. In addition, significant relationships were observed between individuals' socio-economic characteristics and their multidimensional financial inclusion status. Policies aimed at promoting better economic opportunities and improving education levels are essential for increasing the rate of financial inclusion in the WAEMU.
This study investigates the impact of public education expenditure on income inequality, focusing on the moderating role of public debt. Using a dataset of 74 developing countries spanning 1974–2022, the analysis applies the System Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) and the Dynamic Panel Threshold Regression Model (DPTRM). While previous research has predominantly examined the linear relationship between education expenditure and income inequality, this study further explores their nonlinear dynamics in the presence of public debt. The System GMM findings confirm that an increase in public education expenditure reduces income inequality, consistent with existing literature and the inverted U‐shaped hypothesis. Furthermore, the study finds evidence of a nonlinear relationship between public education expenditure and income inequality; more specifically, a significant threshold effect of public debt is identified. Below the threshold level of the public debt‐to‐GDP ratio, increased education expenditure effectively reduces income inequality. Conversely, above the threshold, the impact of education expenditure on inequality becomes positive and loses statistical significance. The study offers a novel perspective for policymakers, emphasising that the effectiveness of education policy interventions, particularly education spending, is contingent on macroeconomic conditions such as debt sustainability.
The outbreak of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic led to global economic consequences. This paper measures the dynamics of spillover effects before and during the COVID-19 pandemic among Asia-Pacific banks. Spillover effects provide an accurate representation of the transmission of shocks across financial institutions during adverse events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. We apply the Diebold-Yilmaz spillover index to investigate the impact of COVID-19 on spreading shocks in the banking system. We consider the interactions of the 50 largest banks in the Asia-Pacific region over the period 1 January 2018 to 18 November 2021. The empirical results show varying patterns of spillover before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. The total spillovers intensify following the COVID-19 outbreak. Total spillovers decreased after governments adopted measures to mitigate the spread of COVID-19, including lockdowns, social distancing, wearing face masks, and vaccinations. This shows that the COVID-19 pandemic led to an increase in systemic risk. Caution needs to be put in place to monitor these banks to reduce instability in the banking sector.
This paper studies the effect of tax evasion on consumption for a panel of OECD countries using annual data from 2003 to 2021. Our model includes the consumption percentage of nominal GDP as the dependent variable, with inflation, nominal GDP, interest rates, unemployment and tax evasion as explanatory variables. We use the shadow economy (as a percent of GDP) as a proxy for tax evasion. Results from our generalised method of moments model indicate that tax evasion is positively associated with consumption, likely because tax evasion increases disposable income. We discuss policy implications.
Taxes are levied on contributions to and earnings of Australian superannuation funds (but not on superannuants' withdrawals). For most people, the statutory rates are lower than the marginal personal income tax rate on their labour income. However, the effective rate of superannuation taxes can be much higher than the statutory rates, due to the compounding of taxes on fund earnings. Important normative and policy questions relate to whether the taxes on superannuation are too heavy or too light; imposed at the right junctures or not; equitable or inequitable between taxpayers. The answers should depend on objective claims about the effects of the taxation arrangements. To support those objective claims, various indices have been used to measure the burden of taxation on superannuation. This article questions the validity and interpretation of those indices and proposes an alternative. No attempt is made to sketch the optimal tax system for superannuation: The Tax and Transfer Policy Institute has issued a thoughtful paper on that (TTPI 2020). My objectives are limited: to critique the prevailing indicators of the effective rates of taxation and of the rate and quantum of tax concessions; to offer a preferred alternative; and to illustrate the quantitative and policy relevance.
In this paper, we investigate the performance of five causality‐detection methods and the aggregation of their results when considering multiple units in a panel data setting. We employ voting rules as an aggregation procedure to determine which causal paths are identified for the sample population. Using both simulated and real‐world panel data, we show the performance of these methods in detecting the correct causal paths by comparing them to a benchmark that represents a standard growth model as the ground truth .
