Abstract This article examines the evolution of Gulf security architecture in the context of the Iran War and the growing uncertainty over the long‐term role of the United States as principal external security guarantor of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states. It analyzes the long‐standing debates over alternative security arrangements, including GCC‐centered defense integration, broader mechanisms of cooperative security, and more novel options like a regional nonaggression framework. The study demonstrates that the GCC has never been an effective collective defense institution due to enduring structural constraints and a range of exogenous and endogenous factors: aversion to ceding sovereignty to a supranational body; major differences across the member states; smaller members’ fears of domination by Saudi Arabia; and the complexities inherent in military integration. The findings indicate that, despite the crisis precipitated by the Iran War, the structural obstacles that historically prevented the emergence of an autonomous Gulf security and defense arrangement remain largely intact.
Abstract Political Islam in Iran is frequently portrayed in Western scholarship and policy discourse as a unified and rigid ideological system rooted in the 1979 Islamic Revolution. However, this article contends that it operates as a plural and internally contested field in which state‐directed, reformist‐clerical, and civic interpretations compete over religious authority and political legitimacy. The study shows how revolutionary doctrines became embedded in political institutions while Islamic meanings have been produced through an array of practices, including sermons, clerical writings, protests, and digital activism. It then examines key moments of rupture, including the 2009 Green Movement and the 2022 Mahsa Amini protests, to show how women, youth, and reform‐minded clerics mobilized Qur'anic ethics and Shi'i moral memory to challenge coercion and authoritarian governance. The analysis thereby reframes Islam as a language of justice, dignity, and moral accountability. The article elucidates the implications of Iran's religious plurality for international engagement.
Abstract With crises intensifying across the Middle East, the Türkiye‐NATO relationship has become a matter of vital interest for global security. Employing a mixed‐methods approach, this study investigates shifts in Ankara's perceptions of NATO from the year of Türkiye's accession in 1952 through 2020. Officials’ views are examined through an analysis of ministerial speeches delivered during parliamentary budget debates. The content analysis and statistical tests explore the thematic dimensions, political geography, and institutional meanings of these discussions. By systematically analyzing official discourse across nearly seven decades, the study moves beyond impressionistic interpretations and provides an assessment of how Türkiye has understood the alliance over time. The study shows that Turkish ministers initially had a multidimensional, normative view of NATO as a platform for democracy and diplomacy. However, after the Cold War and Ankara's shift toward a narrow, transactional focus on security, the officials tended to be silent on NATO. The findings indicate that, given Ankara's perceptions, the future of NATO‐Türkiye relations depends on pragmatic, interest‐based cooperation rather than normative alignment.
Abstract As Qatar, a small country in a strategic location, faced a pressure campaign from Gulf states in 2017, Türkiye expanded its military presence and provided support that proved crucial to Doha's ability to overcome the crisis. This demonstrated Türkiye's new grand strategy, its capacity to project influence into the Gulf, and its status as a rising power. How did Ankara and Doha build a strategic partnership? This article contends that the bilateral ties are rooted in shared heritage and mutual interests. The study traces the relationship from the Ottoman administration of the Gulf through the transition to the modern republic and its neutral posture during much of the 20th century. From there, the ascendance of the Justice and Development Party led to a transformation of Türkiye's capacity for regional influence. The analysis shows that while historical legacy and common identity provided the foundation for trust between Türkiye and Qatar, strategic priorities through Türkiye's new grand strategy catalyzed the transition from cooperation to a high level of integration. This article is part of a series guest edited by Hamdullah Baycar and Betul Dogan‐Akkas, based on the Gulf Studies Symposium organized by the Gulf International Forum, April 11–12, 2025, at Georgetown University in Washington.
Abstract In spring 2026, trials began in Syria and Europe against senior figures of the Assad regime accused of torture, murder, and war crimes, and the new government in Damascus charged former President Bashar al‐Assad and other former officials in absentia. Questions regarding the most appropriate mechanisms for accountability have therefore assumed renewed urgency. This study explores the legal and institutional pathways for achieving justice for grave international crimes committed during Syria's 14‐year civil conflict. It critically evaluates the effectiveness, feasibility, and legitimacy of accountability mechanisms, including domestic prosecutions, the International Criminal Court, universal jurisdiction, the International Court of Justice, and truth commissions. Drawing on comparative cases in Iraq, South Africa, and similar post‐conflict environments, the article proposes a dual‐track approach: establishing a hybrid tribunal to prosecute senior perpetrators and simultaneously forming a truth and reconciliation commission to support national healing and societal reconstruction. The study concludes that a hybrid tribunal combined with a truth commission, despite their limitations, offers the most balanced and context‐sensitive path toward justice and democratic transition in post‐conflict Syria.
Abstract This article examines the structural vulnerability of Iran's natural gas sector under conditions of conflict, focusing on the March 2026 strikes on the South Pars/Asaluyeh complex. Despite holding the world's second‐largest reserves and ranking among the top producers, Iran's gas system is characterized by high infrastructure concentration, overwhelming domestic consumption, limited export flexibility, and chronic underinvestment. The study argues that these structural features transform resource abundance into conditional vulnerability by limiting the system's ability to absorb supply disruptions. South Pars, which accounts for most of the national output, functions as a critical single point of failure. Damage to this hub triggered domestic shortages, export reductions to Turkey and Iraq, and cascading effects across gas processing, electricity generation, and regional pipeline flows. Retaliatory strikes on Qatar's liquefied natural gas infrastructure amplified global market volatility, highlighting how disruptions to infrastructure can be transmitted across regional and global gas markets. The article concludes that the power of an energy system is no longer defined by resource endowment alone, but by resilience. Iran's case illustrates how infrastructure fragility can rapidly convert strategic assets into liabilities.
In 2021, Palestinians rallied to save families in East Jerusalem from eviction by launching the online #SaveSheikhJarrah campaign. These activists, many of them young, used platforms like Instagram, Twitter, and TikTok to share footage, mobilize support, and inform global audiences. The campaign illustrated the growing role of digital advocacy in shaping narratives around the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. This study examines perceived political efficacy among Palestinians aged 18-27, commonly referred to as Gen Z. The quantitative descriptive-analytical design based on an online survey of 402 respondents finds high levels of daily platform usage, with social media serving as a primary source of political information. Correlation and regression analyses reveal statistically significant associations among digital platform usage, political participation, beliefs about censorship of online content, and perceptions of digital political efficacy. The results provide evidence of how Palestine's Generation Z understands and experiences digitally mediated political engagement and the constraints of their platforms.
The US-Israeli war on Iran appears to demonstrate the perils of a transactional diplomacy that dismisses the rules-based, liberal international order in pursuit of American dominance. Much of the growing literature assumes transactional diplomacy will be a temporary, Trump-driven departure from traditional, values-based statecraft. By contrast, while we harbor reservations about transactionalism, we refuse to embrace such predetermined conclusions. Moreover, we do not believe transactionalism will fade after Trump, as a number of states are embracing it, especially in the Middle East. Despite this, to our knowledge, there has been no effort to assess transactionalism through case studies from the region. This article provides a comparative evaluation of transactional and traditional diplomacy through a cost-benefit analysis of their objectives and methods. It then examines two examples of transactional diplomacy, the Gaza peace plan and US support for post-Assad Syria. Our findings provide leverage to analyze Washington's 2026 war on Iran. The evidence indicates that the conflict should not be interpreted as a failure of transactional diplomacy, since the administration never genuinely engaged in reciprocal bargaining. Instead, it demonstrates that transactionalism is of limited use in crises defined by maximalist demands and rapid escalation.
For nearly a decade following the Arab uprisings, relations between Ankara and key Gulf capitals were marked by intense rivalry and proxy contestation across several regional arenas, notably in Egypt and Syria. Why did relations shift toward pragmatic cooperation after such prolonged polarization? This study revisits the concepts of the Turkish and Gulf models of regional order. It argues that T & uuml;rkiye's behavior during the Arab uprisings was shaped primarily by geopolitical calculations and regime-alignment logic rather than by a coherent project of democracy promotion. The tensions that emerged between Ankara and Gulf states therefore reflected competing visions of regional order. Between 2011 and 2021, these rival models generated polarization, after which relations shifted toward compartmentalization and pragmatic normalization. This article is part of a series guest edited by Hamdullah Baycar and Betul Dogan-Akkas, based on the Gulf Studies Symposium organized by the Gulf International Forum, April 11-12, 2025, at Georgetown University in Washington.
As the 2026 Iran War intensifies pressure on energy export routes, relations between states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and the Asia-Pacific region are undergoing a structural shift with implications beyond bilateral trade. This article contends that the nexus among these countries increasingly combines hydrocarbon interdependence and downstream integration with selective but expanding cooperation on renewables, hydrogen and ammonia value chains, and finance dedicated to the energy transition. To illustrate these dynamics, the analysis employs a case-based assessment using project-level evidence such as named partners, finance, and implementation status; effects of constraints, including delays, costs, certification bottlenecks, and rerouting; and institutional deliverables like workstreams, mechanisms, and finance tools. The examination demonstrates three crucial findings. First, the relationship between the GCC and the Asia-Pacific is increasingly dual-track, with hydrocarbon interdependence persisting alongside energy-transition activities. Second, the evolution is constrained by infrastructure, regulatory, financial, and geopolitical frictions. Third, these dynamics reflect a broader shift toward multipolar energy governance through emerging institutional coordination among China, the GCC states, and members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
