This study examines whether oil price volatility affects economic growth in the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies directly or through fiscal sustainability, using annual data for 1991–2020 and an extension to 2024. Oil price volatility is measured from monthly Brent returns, both as the annualised standard deviation and as the conditional volatility of an AR(1)-GARCH(1,1) model. Because real per capita GDP growth is stationary while some regressors are integrated, long-run effects are estimated with the pooled mean group (PMG) estimator, complemented by mean group, augmented mean group and cross-sectionally augmented ARDL estimators; the fiscal channel is tested with a product-of-coefficients mediation framework and moving-block bootstrap inference. The PMG estimates show a negative and statistically significant long-run effect of oil price volatility on growth: a one-standard-deviation increase in log volatility lowers per capita growth by about 1.4
This paper examines how geographic disadvantage and infrastructure shape bilateral trade flows, with a particular focus on landlocked countries. Using a global panel dataset covering 2007–2019, the paper moves beyond the conventional binary classification of landlockedness by decomposing the geographic disadvantage into coastal accessibility and transit structure. The empirical strategy combines an augmented gravity model with the Hausman–Taylor estimator to address endogeneity while retaining time-invariant geographic variables, and is complemented by Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML) estimation and extensive-margin analysis to account for zero trade flows, heteroskedasticity, and trade participation. The results yield three main findings. First, infrastructure plays a central role in facilitating trade, with improvements in logistics performance significantly increasing bilateral trade flows. Second, the negative effect of landlockedness is largely driven by coastal accessibility: once distance to the nearest coast is accounted for, the estimated penalty of being landlocked declines substantially. Third, and most importantly, the structure of transit access matters. Landlocked countries that depend on a single coastal neighbor experience significantly lower trade, highlighting the importance of competition among transit routes. The findings are robust across alternative estimators, including fixed effects, Hausman–Taylor, PPML, and extensive-margin models. These findings suggest that the disadvantages faced by landlocked countries are multidimensional, reflecting not only geography and infrastructure but also regional political economy. Policies aimed at improving trade integration should therefore focus on enhancing infrastructure, strengthening regional cooperation, and alleviating the trade costs associated with limited transit options
This paper analyses the effects of state fragility on trade openness in Africa, using panel data for 50 African countries over the period 1995–2018. We use the recent de facto trade openness indicators developed by Squalli and Wilson (2011) because it reflects the actual degree of trade and the Fraser Institute’s de jure Trade Freedom index. Estimates obtained using the feasible generalized least squares (FGLS) and the system generalized method of moments (system GMM) show that the inability of African states to provide basic public services and ensure high-quality institutions has a negative effect on these countries’ trade openness. However, the magnitude of the estimated effects varies considerably according to the different measures of trade openness used. Furthermore, the quantile regression approach shows that the effect of state fragility and its dimensions varies across the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 90th quintile. The results are also robust when distinguishing other measures of state fragility and trade openness. Based on these results, it would be worthwhile for African countries to strengthen state capacity and the quality of their institutions in order to ensure an effective and sustainable improvement in trade transactions.
The globe artichoke is one of the major vegetable crops cultivated in the Mediterranean Basin, with global production reaching nearly 1.6 million tons in 2023. Egypt is among the world’s leading producers, contributing almost one-fifth of global production; however, its export performance remains relatively limited compared with its production potential. This study examines the production dynamics, geographical distribution, and export competitiveness of globe artichoke in Egypt during 2000–2023 within the framework of sustainable agricultural development. Both quantitative and qualitative approaches were used to analyze trends in cultivated areas, productivity, and exports, in addition to major competitiveness indicators in international markets. The results indicate that production growth was driven mainly by horizontal expansion rather than improvements in yield. The cultivated area increased to 50.4 thousand fed in 2023, with an average annual growth rate of about 8
This paper examines how international equity allocations adjust during a systemic global shock, focusing on whether investors tilt toward domestic markets or toward a dominant benchmark destination. To test this, we exploit the COVID-19 pandemic as a unique global shock, providing an exceptional opportunity to observe investor behavior during a rare symmetric worldwide crisis. We develop and apply a novel Portfolio Tilt Ratio using data from 52 countries, spanning diverse levels of social globalization, and compare investor allocations for two time periods: before the COVID-19 turmoil (December 2019) and during the spread of COVID-19 (June 2020). Our results reveal no significant increase in broad home bias during the pandemic. Instead, we observe a statistically significant global reallocation toward the U.S. equity market. This effect is strongest among countries with higher levels of social globalization, highlighting the association between social connectedness and investor behavior during crises. These findings suggest that crisis-time portfolio adjustments can be destination specific and may involve a tilt toward benchmark markets, rather than reflecting a uniform flight home response. They further imply that countries with stronger social and informational globalization links may experience higher exposure to cross border capital shifts during global shocks, underscoring the need for coordination and financial stability monitoring. While our analysis focuses on the U.S. as the target market, the Portfolio Tilt Ratio provides a generalizable framework for examining global reallocations toward any destination market and may inform policy discussions on global financial stability and cross border resilience.
