Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyse the association between drug consumption and unemployment. This paper also studies the differential association between these variables in both the pre- and current-crisis periods. The results are compared in an attempt to verify that the population of users is more vulnerable in terms of how likely they are to get and hold down a job in the labour market. Design/methodology/approach Matching methods and microdata from the Survey on Alcohol and Drugs in Spain, EDADES are used. The use of these methods on the estimates carried out prove to be particularly effective in reducing treatment-selection bias. The authors’ interest is also to analyse the differential association between the interest variables in both the pre- and current-crisis periods. For this purpose, the authors also use the differences-in-differences (DID) estimation method between the two periods to check if the impact of drug use on unemployment depends on the economic context. The estimations are compared in an attempt to verify that the population of users is less likely to attain and hold down a job in the labour market than non-drug users. Findings The results obtained in the current study are consistent with the hypothesis that drug use decreases an individual’s capacity and availability when he or she is trying to enter the labour market. In both 2007 and 2013, drug users were more likely to be unemployed, regardless of the type of drug. Differences in the probability of being unemployed intensify during an economic crisis. In light of these results, it is possible to conclude that the negative effect of drug consumption on an individual’s employability is increased during periods of economic recession. Research limitations/implications The study presented here has some limitations. Firstly, cross-sectional data were used to examine the causal relationship between consumption and employment. In this sense, the results are susceptible to bias. The unavailability of longitudinal data on the same individual made it impossible for the researchers to consider periods of abstinence, the duration of periods of consumption and how this consumption affected an individual’s productivity and his or her working situation. Another limitation is that certain relevant unemployment variables may have been omitted. Among the variables that affect an individual’s labour participation is the existence of sources of income as an alternative to market salaries. With state subsidies, income from illegal activities and money sent by family or friends, an individual may decide not to work. This problem could be mitigated if omitted variables operate in a similar way throughout both of the periods examined. Social implications Given the results obtained in this paper, the authors believe that public policy conclusions should be mainly concerned with the importance of implementing proactive employment policies, along with family support programmes and a greater role for primary care among the people with the highest risks of exclusion. Health treatment should go jointly with measures that make it easier for individuals to enter the workforce. These steps would only be possible with an improved level of education and more complete professional profiles, to increase motivation when individuals seek employment. Originality/value This study could make various contributions to the existing body of evidence. In the authors’ knowledge, this is the first attempt to document the effect of the economic crisis on the employability of the drug-using population in contrast with the general population. Moreover, a methodology is presented that provides an alternative to those used in earlier studies, in terms of reducing treatment-selection bias. At the same time, the use of a DID estimation method between pre- and current-crisis periods allow us to check if the impact of drugs consumption on unemployment depends on the economic context.
PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to analyze a variety of factors that can explain the differences in commercial bank efficiency among 17 countries in Latin America (LatAm).Design/methodology/approachIn a first stage, data envelopment analysis (DEA) and conditional efficiency analysis techniques are used to assess the relative efficiency level of 409 banks for the 2014-2016 period. The conditional efficiency approach considers environmental variables (that are beyond the manager’s control), which could influence the shape and the level of the boundary of the attainable set. In the second stage, the resulting conditional efficiency scores are correlated with internal variables (those that are under the manager’s control), which might affect the distribution of the inefficiencies. For this purpose, an econometric approach developed by Simar and Wilson (2007) is used.FindingsFirst stage scores reveal the heterogeneity of average efficiency within the region. Regarding the factors that may explain the differences in performance in the LatAm banking sector, the results allow us to state that certain internal variables such as bank size, the ratio of loans to total assets and the ratio of non-performing loans show the expected relationship to efficiency, in line with much of the previous literature.Originality/valueThis is the first time that conditional efficiency and Simar and Wilson (2007) approaches have been applied at the same time to analyse the LatAm banking industry.
This work tries to analyze why, in certain countries, the rivalry between broadband platforms has no effect on broadband deployment. Controlling for demographic features and network variables, we focus on analyzing the impact of regulations on the competitiveness of platforms offering an alternative to the dominant platform (xDSL). To reach this objective, this paper draws on data from cable and optical fiber platforms in the Spanish market. We find that the impact of different regulatory frameworks has critically affected the competitiveness of cable platforms and, in consequence, harmed inter-platform competition. By contrast, our results show that regulation is not discouraging the current spread of optical fiber platforms.
In this paper I describe in detail the concepts of volatility, diversification and contagion, three basic keys to understand the seemingly whimsical behaviour of financial markets. The presentation is deliberately non-technical and largely self-contained, with most required concepts defined along the way. Nevertheless, the analysis is mostly empirically oriented, with an emphasis on the methods that have been proposed to measure those concepts and a discussion of the stylised facts that the resulting measures imply. I also use those measures to study the effects of the financial crisis of 2007-2008 and the euro sovereign debt crisis of 2010-2012 on Spain.
We develop an international comparative assessment of the Great Recession, in terms of the features that characterize the form of the recession phases, namely length, depth and shape. The potential unobserved heterogeneity in the international recession characteristics is modeled by a finite mixture model. Using Bayesian inference via Gibbs sampling, the model classifies the Great Recession suffered by a large number of countries into different clusters, determining its severity in cross section and time series and dimensions. Our results suggest that the business cycle features of the Great Recession are not different from others in an international perspective. By contrast, we show that the only distinctive feature of the Great Recession was its unprecedented degree of synchronicity.
The field of public economics has witnessed major developments during the last quarter century. The main drivers of change have been new policy challenges such as increasing income inequality, footloose international capital and globalization, population ageing, global warming, and the response to the Great Recession. The increased focus on empirical testing has been fueled by the availability of better micro administrative datasets, better identification through more credible econometric techniques, as well as new research methodologies, including lab experiments and randomized field controlled trials. This paper provides overviews of general trends of research in public economics from three different important and respected sources and then singles out and highlights several new developments on a short list of research topics.
espanolEste trabajo estima el efecto de diferentes estrategias en la busqueda de empleo sobre el subempleo (medido como sobreeducacion, infrautilizacion de los conocimientos y habilidades adquiridos durante la carrera y desajuste en el area de estudio) de los recien titulados universitarios en Espana, a partir de la Encuesta de Insercion Laboral de los Titulados Universitarios 2014. Los resultados muestran que las estrategias de busqueda de empleo respaldadas institucionalmente a traves de los servicios publicos de empleo o de las universidades, asi como continuar con las practicas en empresas realizadas durante la carrera, reducen el riesgo de subempleo en el primer empleo. Del mismo modo, ser contactado por el empleador, presumiblemente a traves de la universidad, tambien esta relacionado con un mejor ajuste. El uso de agencias de trabajo temporal esta relacionado con los peores resultados. Buscar el primer empleo a traves de anuncios en el periodico o internet, asi como contactar con el empleador por iniciativa propia o utilizar contactos personales como familiares o amigos aumenta el riesgo de subempleo EnglishIn this paper the impact of different job search strategies on underemployment (measured as overeducation, skills/knowledge underutilization and mismatch in the field of education) in Spanish recent graduates is estimated on a sample of recent graduates drawn from the University Graduate Job Placement Survey 2014. Our results show the advantages of institutionally supported job search strategies through public employment services or university career services as well as internship programmes over individual-driven strategies, both formal and informal. Similarly, being contacted by the employer –presumably through university career services– are also related to better job match. The use of temporary work agencies is related to the worst outcomes. Reviewing ads in the media and on-line as well as contacting employers –either directly or using informal networks– are also related with higher underemployment risks.
We develop an accounting decomposition of the net balance of the public pension system into a series of components that isolate the contributions of demography, the evolution of real wages and employment, the generosity and coverage of the pension system, the average contribution rate on labor income and the average duration of worker's contribution histories. This decomposition is applied to the Spanish public pension system using data for 1985-2017. The more striking finding is that the stagnation of real wages has played a more important role than demographics in the deterioration of the system's finances. The negative effect of these two factors has been partially offset by a rising employment rate, the gradual reduction in the generosity of the pension system and the increasing contribution of the Central Government to the financing of minimum pension complements.
The main purpose of this paper is to use the Spanish case, through an econometric analysis of 226 electoral polls, to explain why polls are making more mistakes in times of great socioeconomic slumps, political instability and the emergence of new political parties. In this context, it is the very instrument with which society tries to reduce the reigning uncertainty that, paradoxically, can ultimately drive uncertainty up. Our results show that the prediction error for the new emerging parties is significantly higher than for the traditional parties and this error is not sensitive to solutions for increasing the reliability of surveys, such as increasing sample size, transparency constantly conducting periodical surveys, the closeness of the approaching election or the survey mode that is used. It can be observed that pollsters do not want to make predictions that vary greatly from the average of the other polls. Finally, editorial bias appears to play a significant role, especially in the case of traditional parties.
espanolEn las ultimas decadas, han tenido lugar numerosos procesos de descentra lizacion en todo el mundo. Esto ha llevado a un impacto macroeconomico cada vez mayor de los presupuestos subcentrales. La literatura normativa sobre el papel estabilizador de los gobiernos subcentrales es muy abundante. Sin embargo, aun existe poca evidencia empirica sobre el sesgo de la politica fiscal de esos gobiernos. Utilizando una funcion de reaccion fiscal y aplicandola a un panel de datos de todas las comunidades autonomas espanolas, encontramos evidencia empirica sobre el sesgo anticiclico de la politica fiscal regional durante el periodo 1984-2014. Estos resultados contrastan con los obtenidos por la escasa literatura en la materia. EnglishDecentralization processes have taken place all over the world in the last few decades. This has led to an increasing macroeconomic impact of sub-central government budgets. Normative literature on the role of sub-central governments on the implementation of stabilization policies is abundant. However, there is still little empirical evidence addressing the bias of sub-central budgets regarding the macroeconomic performance in their territories. Using a fiscal reaction function, a pool of data covering all the regional governments in Spain, and after adjusting the regional budget balance for inertia and the business cycle, we find empirical evidence of the countercyclical bias of Spanish regional governments fiscal policies during the period 1984-2014. This is in sharp contrast with the scarce previous literature on this filed.
espanolEl objetivo de esta investigacion consiste en conocer los efectos de la formacion sobre la probabilidad de que un joven desempleado encuentre trabajo. Para ello se utiliza una base de datos de desempleados de ambito regionalfacilitada por el Servicio Publico de Empleo de Asturias para el periodo 20092012. Los resultados indican que, en general, la formacion universitaria no fue una garantia para elevar significativamente la probabilidad de conseguir empleo durante la fase mas fuerte de la crisis economica. Por su parte, la formacion profesional eleva la probabilidad de conseguir un empleo para ambos generos, y el conocimiento de idiomas extranjeros (ingles y frances) tiene un efecto positivo fundamentalmente en el caso de las mujeres. Finalmente, se ha observado que las prestaciones por desempleo desincentivan la obtencion de un empleo para ambos sexos, pero especialmente en el caso de las mujeres. EnglishThe aim of this paper is to determine how education has an effect on the probability of young unemployed people to find a job, by using a regional dataset provided by the Public Employment Service from the region of Asturias for the period 2009-2012. The outcomes show that university degrees do not make employability easier, in general, during the recent economic crisis. Moreover, vocational training increases the probability of getting a job for both genders, whereas the knowledge of English and French languages has a positive effect mainly in the case of women. Finally, unemployment benefits discourage unemployed from getting a new job, mainly for women.
espanolComo ocurre en muchos paises desarrollados, el envejecimiento de la poblacion esta generando presion sobre las finanzas del sistema publico de pensiones espanol. Muchos estudios han documentado las fuentes del incremento del gasto en pensiones y las limitaciones de los ingresos por cotizaciones de la Seguridad Social para hacer frente a dicho incremento. Mirando hacia el futuro, se espera que las tasas de dependencia aumenten todavia mas, mientras que, en ausencia de cambios adicionales en las fuentes de ingresos del sistema, las tasas de reemplazo disminuiran significativamente desde los niveles actuales. En este contexto, este articulo intenta contribuir al debate sobre la situacion del sistema publico de pensiones espanol, mediante un analisis de su evolucion reciente y de las proyecciones mas actualizadas, que incluyen el impacto de las ultimas reformas. Finalmente, tambien se consideran otras estrategias de reforma que son necesarias para restaurar la sostenibilidad financiera y mejorar la equidad, tanto dentro de cada generacion como entre generaciones. EnglishAs in many developed countries, population ageing is stressing the finances of the Spanish public pension system. Many studies have documented the sources of the increase in pension expenditures and the limitations of revenues from social security contributions to meet such an increase. Looking into the future, dependency ratios are expected to rise further, while, in the absence of additional changes to the system's sources of revenue, pension replacement rates will decline significantly from the current levels. In this context, this paper aims to contribute to the debate on the situation of the Spanish pension system through an analysis of its recent evolution and up-to-date forwardlooking projections that include the impact of the latest reforms. Finally, we also analyse alternative reforms that are needed to restore financial sustainability and improve equity, both within and across generations.
A Knowledge Production Function (KPF) analyzes if the national innovation systems (NIS) generate knowledge spillovers for their regions. Therefore, we include in the traditional KFP some variables that reflect the NIS of each region. In fact, we included 52 national and regional explanatory variables and applied a factorial analysis to reducing them to a few 'synthetic' ones. Our study offers some evidence on the existence of 'national' spillovers and they seems to be asymmetrical. Its intensity is lower in the technologically less developed regions than in those of intermediate technological development and scarcely exists in the case of the more developed or central regions.
Rafael Santamaria died on 28th June 2018. He was Editor of the Revista de Economia Aplicada for a decade, and up until his death, always showed great dedication and willingness to help, even in the worst moments of his illness. In his role as Editor, he improved the work not only of the authors who sent their research to the journal but also that of all his colleagues on the Editorial Board.
This paper examines evidences of market labor income inequality in Spain, as if they were the outcome of the market equilibrium from occupational choices of individuals with different general skills. We find that the parameters of the distribution of skills, production technology, and internal organization of firms that match the observed organization of production (number of persons occupied as employees, entrepreneurs-managers and solo self-employed, distribution of firm sizes) in Spain, also explain reasonably well the distribution of market labor income, within groups and for all occupied individuals together. The proposed model can be of use in evaluating the potential consequences for labor income inequality of changes in the organization of production.
This paper analyses the relationship between active management and performance in US equity mutual funds over the period 2001-2011 for both gross and net returns. Active management is measured by time-varying parameters, idiosyncratic risk and turnover. A U-shaped relation is found, thus both the best and the worst mutual funds show a higher level of active management. This behavior is also found in the relationship between expenses and performance. Active management therefore implies selecting different strategies or investment bets with higher expenses and an unequal performance is achieved. However some level of persistence in the success of these bets is only found for the best mutual funds.
In this article, we construct a homogeneous series of vacancies for the Spanish economy from 1980 to 2016, which enables us to perform an analysis of the effects of the economic cycle on the relationship between unemployment and vacancies. The methodology proposes a link between the old series of vacancies from the former INEM (National Employment Institute) and the new series from Eurostat. To that end, we use the information from the Short-Term Labour Survey. An analysis of this new homogeneous series shows that the Beveridge curve shifted between 2008 and 2009 due to the worse efficiency of the process of matching vacancies and unemployed workers. A simulation of the macroeconomic effects of this fall in efficiency in a general equilibrium model for Spain generates movements in GDP and employment in the same direction as those actually observed in the crisis, albeit of lesser magnitude. The evidence offered shows that since 2014, the Beveridge curve has gradually been recovering its pre-crisis position, with a consequent decline in the unemployment rate.
This paper presents a methodology for predicting in real-time Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and its demand components (private consumption, public consumption, investment in equipment, investment in construction, exports and imports) simultaneously. The model, on the one hand, consists of a set of dynamic factor models for both GDP and its demand components, which will provide individual forecasts for each. On the other hand, a balancing procedure is incorporated to ensure the transversal consistency of these forecasts, thus providing a consistent set of estimates based on the statistically most useful indicators about current economic activity and demand developments. The methodology is applied to the Spanish economy, presenting real-time quarterly forecasts of GDP and its demand components.
This study seeks to empirically determine to what extent continual protest by regionalist parties may generate revenue for their regions. To this end, we perform an econometric estimation using the collaboration agreements between Spanish governments and the autonomous communities as the dependent variable (first-level political and administrative divisions, CCAA in their Spanish initials). We test our hypothesis by analogously applying the economic specifications employed in studies of “pork barrel politics”, including control variables regarding per capita income, regional financing systems, political variables such as support for regional governments from the same political party or the existence of pivot parties. The results support the theoretical conclusions reached by Treisman (1999), namely that non-sovereignist regionalism generates revenue while sovereignist nationalism or regionalism leads governments to react by applying unfavourable treatment. Similarly, the fact that a regionalist party plays a key role in the investiture of the national president brings with it even greater revenue to the region in question, concurring with the results predicted by Brancati (2008).
