As economic and trade cooperation between China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN)has continued to deepen,trade frictions initiated by ASEAN involving China have also become increasingly prominent in recent years.This study examines these frictions in the context of global supply chain(GSC)restructuring,as reflected in US nearshoring and friendshoring.Evidence indicates that GSC restructuring has largely driven the surge in ASEAN-China trade frictions.Mechanism analysis shows that China s export expansion toward ASEAN,ASEAN's growing negotiating leverage,and the correlation of ASEAN and US trade policies toward China have intensified them.Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the effect is more pronounced in non-technology-intensive product supply chains and is associated with ASEAN's greater reliance on traditional rather than nontraditional trade measures.These findings clarify evolving trade dynamics and can inform efforts to balance strategic competition with positive China-ASEAN economic cooperation.
Although the role of innovation in export upgrading has been widely acknowledged,the impact of interurban innovation networks on export product quality remains underexplored.This study examined how interurban innovation collaborations influenced export quality in China using joint patent application and customs trade data from 2001 to 2015.Stronger innovation linkages between cities significantly improved export quality,and this result was robust to a range of checks and to an instrumental variable strategy that alleviated endogeneity concerns.The effect arose mainly through stronger innovation capacity,lower information costs,and more efficient resource allocation.It was more pronounced for exports to developed markets,in core cities,and in cities with greater absorptive capacity,and was strengthened by informal institutions such as social trust and cultural diversity.These results clarify the contribution of innovation to export upgrading from the perspective of network externalities and offer policy implications for strengthening interurban innovation collaboration and advancing high-quality trade development.
The rapid development of the digital economy is profoundly reshaping various sectors of the economy and society.This study employed a two-way fixed effects model to empirically examine the impact of the digital economy on household development resilience and its mechanisms of action.The findings show that the digital economy significantly enhanced the level of household development resilience,and this conclusion remains valid after a series of robustness tests.Mechanism analysis reveals that raising household income expectations and promoting upward mobility are the main pathways through which the digital economy enhances household development resilience.Moreover,the digital economy mainly affects household development resilience from two aspects:work and life.Specifically,it enhances household development resilience by reshaping household labor employment patterns,improving job-skill matching,optimizing the allocation of household labor resources,and increasing developmental and social network expenditures,thereby improving household spending structures.Furthermore,exploratory analysis reveals that the digital economy also significantly contributes to enhancing regional resilience.
This study investigated how agricultural mechanization in China has reshaped rural labor dynamics across age groups.Using the 2020 China Family Panel Studies survey data matched with provincial-level agricultural mechanization indicators and employing bivariate probit and linear regression models,the analysis shows that mechanization has significantly reduced agricultural work participation among young and middle-aged workers,facilitating their transition into nonagricultural sectors.In contrast,older individuals remained deeply engaged in agriculture,experiencing little reduction in work intensity.This divergence stemmed from two interrelated factors.First,intrahousehold labor reallocation,where younger household members exited farming while the elderly stayed behind.Second,older farmers had limited adoption of mechanization,often constrained by the high cost of agricultural mechanization services,the low profitability of agricultural income,and the frugality often displayed by older individuals.The study highlights the need for elder-friendly mechanization to support rural labor transitions and reduce the burden on older people.
Export value-added tax rebates are a multifaceted policy tool,serving to foster environmentally friendly industries and to support firms' green transformation.This study examined the impact of such rebates on exporting firms' emission behavior.The results show that a 1 percentage point increase in the rebate rate led to a 0.3 to 0.9 percent increase in firms' emissions,driven primarily by expanded production and partially offset by changes in industrial structure,with no significant improvements in firms' emission intensity.Although green investment increased under the policy,it was directed primarily toward expanding conventional facilities rather than advancing green technologies.The policy s positive impact on green investment was strongest for firms facing regulatory pressure but subject to financial constraints,as the increased cash flow from the rebate relaxed their budget constraints.The study highlights the challenges in designing environmental policies that balance environmental protection and economic growth.
This study examined the impact of the People's Bank of China's 2018 policy incorporating green credit into the central bank collateral framework on firms' carbon emissions,with a focus on its role in incentivizing investment in green technologies.The analysis used firm-level data on Chinese listed companies from 2014 to 2023 and employed a double machine learning approach.The results showed that the policy reduced firms' carbon emissions.Mechanism analysis showed that it lowered financing costs,enhanced green innovation,improved environmental,social,and governance performance,and strengthened firms' competitiveness,thereby contributing to carbon emission reductions.Heterogeneity analysis indicated that the carbon-reducing effect was more pronounced among high-tech firms,large enterprises,firms in eastern regions,and state-owned firms.These results offer empirical evidence for improving the green finance policy framework,with implications for achieving China's dual-carbon goals and for promoting sustainable,high-quality development.
Using data from the China Migrants Dynamic Survey,this study applied a difference-in-differences approach based on the quasi-natural experiment created by the National E-commerce Demonstration City policy to examine the impact of e-commerce development on the employment quality of rural migrant workers in China.The results show that e-commerce development significantly improved their employment quality and this effect remained robust across multiple tests.Mechanism analysis indicates that e-commerce development supported local economic development and improved human and social capital,thereby enhancing employment quality.Heterogeneity analysis shows that the positive effect was more pronounced among younger and high-skilled rural migrant workers,further underscoring a potential digital divide.The results also show that digital financial inclusion reinforced the positive impact of e-commerce development.These findings provide empirical evidence on the labor market effects of the digital economy in developing countries.
This paper examines the impact of digital finance on factor price distortions and its underlying mechanisms.A general equilibrium model under imperfectly competitive factor markets was constructed,and panel data for the period 2011-2019 from 285 prefecture-level cities in China were used for empirical analysis.The findings were threefold.First,digital finance significantly mitigated price distortions in both capital and labor markets,improving the efficiency of factor allocation,with a stronger effect on capital price distortions than on labor price distortions.Second,mechanism analysis showed that digital finance reduced capital price distortions by expanding financing channels and alleviating financing constraints,but it also increased financial risks through higher nonperforming loan ratios,which partially offset these benefits.By contrast,the reduction in labor price distortions was driven mainly by narrowing income inequality,enhancing marketization,and increasing deposit returns.Third,the moderating effect of digital finance on factor price distortions was contingent upon capital deepening,factor market mobility,traditional financial development,and regional economic structure.These results provide theoretical and empirical evidence on the role of digital finance in optimizing factor allocation and offer policy implications for advancing financial market reforms.
Robotics advances society,but it may also undermine the welfare of vulnerable groups.Although prior studies have reported mixed evidence on the relationship between robotics and income inequality,the effects of robotization on the social integration of rural migrant workers have remained insufficiently understood.Using data from the China Migrants Dynamic Survey and the International Federation of Robotics,this study examined how robotization affected the social integration of rural migrant workers in China.It showed that robotization significantly reduced social integration.Specifically,a 1 standard deviation increase in robot adoption lowered the social integration score by 0.04 standard deviations.The negative effect arose mainly from reduced employment opportunities,weaker prospects for career advancement,and lower entrepreneurial intentions.Policies easing hukou registration requirements and promoting a more inclusive culture could mitigate these effects.These findings offer policy implications for China in responding to technological change and improving migration governance.
Transaction costs are among the most important elements in theories of market segmentation.As interactions between individuals become increasingly frequent and interconnected,culture-related costs have emerged as important determinants of trade in regional markets.Based on firm-level value-added tax transaction data from Fujian province in China,this study employed a fixed-effects model to examine the impact of culture on inter-firm trade.The findings revealed that,for both suppliers and customers,improvements in transportation infrastructure promoted trade between firms that shared the same dialect,primarily by lowering trust costs.This positive effect was observed along both the intensive and extensive margins of trade.By offering a detailed account of the role of dialect-based cultural proximity in shaping regional trade patterns,this study provides a valuable policy perspective for understanding the evolution of China's domestic trade landscape.
This study empirically examined the impact of local governments' fiscal incentives on industrial land transfer prices using the province-managing-county fiscal reform as a quasi-natural experiment.A difference-in-differences design was applied to land parcel transaction data from 2007 to 2019 to identify the effect of fiscal decentralization reform on land prices.The results indicate that the reform increased industrial land transfer prices significantly.Mechanism analysis shows that the reform reduced local governments' fiscal incentives,lowered local tax effort,and promoted industrial structure optimization in reformed counties,thereby decreasing county governments' reliance on land-based investment promotion.The effect was stronger for pollution-intensive industries and existing construction land.
Intergenerational educational mobility in rural areas is important for social equity and common prosperity.A difference-in-differences model was employed using data from the five waves of the China Household Finance Survey in 2011-2019,to investigate whether a pilot policy encouraging the return of migrant workers and supporting their entrepreneurial ventures improved regional intergenerational educational mobility.The results indicate that policy implementation reduced intergenerational educational mobility elasticity by 0.067,implying higher mobility in pilot areas.The effect was stronger in central and western regions.The development of the tertiary sector and the improvement of educational infrastructure were important conditions for these gains.Two primary mechanisms were identified:reduced parental migration increased parental presence and support(the companionship effect),and higher household income enabled greater educational investment(the income effect).These findings provide evidence on the equity implications of entrepreneurship policies targeting migrant populations.
This paper examines the impact of large bank business expansion into rural markets on agricultural lending and risk taking by rural financial institutions.The results indicate that competitive pressure from the entry of large banks increased the volume of agricultural loans extended by rural financial institutions,reflecting a classic"catfish effect."The expansion of large bank business compressed the lending space available to rural financial institutions,raising their risk exposure and producing a"risk effect."The study also finds that,to mitigate their own risk-bearing pressure,rural financial institutions tended to lower loan interest rates.This led to a narrower net interest margin and contributed to the exit of inefficient and high-risk rural financial institutions from the market.The study suggests that the expansion of large banks into rural areas can contribute to a more competitive and higher quality rural financial market.
Utilizing an event study methodology,this research examined the impact of the US semiconductor restrictions on corporate valuation.The findings reveal that publicly traded Chinese semiconductor firms suffered significantly diminished stock returns following the onset of the restrictions.The markets anticipation of disrupted business ties and the potential withdrawal of these key executives drove the decline in firm value.This negative impact was most acute in companies lacking prior US supply chains or cross-border mergers and acquisitions experience.Further analysis show that the presence of US CEOs exacerbated these losses while high levels of foreign shareholding served as a mitigating factor.Long-term data indicates that exposed firms aggressively scaled up R&D personnel to compensate for the loss of external expertise.This research highlights the importance of diversifying executive team,supply chain,and capital structure to mitigate geopolitical risks.
This study investigated the impact of parental retirement on offspring households' tourism consumption using data from the China Family Panel Studies (2018-2022) and a fuzzy regression discontinuity design. The results showed that the retirement of paternal-generation males significantly increased offspring tourism consumption, whereas female retirement exhibited no measurable effect. Mechanism analyses indicated that this effect operated primarily through intergenerational time reallocation rather than direct financial transfers. Specifically, retired paternal-generation men provided time endowments to offspring households, substantially reducing household production burdens. This labor substitution effectively relaxed the time constraints that typically limit tourism demand. Heterogeneity analysis revealed stronger effects when the paternal generation enjoyed good health or when offspring households contained more young children. These findings suggest that intergenerational time transfers substituted effectively for monetary costs to facilitate consumption upgrades, a conclusion robust across a comprehensive series of specification checks.
This study investigated how changes in China's tax policy regarding firms'employee training expenses affected the proportion of high-skilled employees.Focusing on a 2018 tax reform that raised the pretax deduction limit for employee training expenses,it analyzed data from listed companies using a difference-in-differences approach.The reform increased the share of high-skilled employees in affected firms.The proportion of technical personnel rose by 1.22 percentage points,with stronger effects in firms that had higher pre-reform training expenses,lower financial constraints,and greater capital intensity.Internal training and employee upward mobility were the main drivers,with a 24 percent rise in average training expenses per employee,primarily for front-line staff.There was a modest increase in research and development intensity and no reduction in average wages.Targeted tax incentives can thus encourage human capital investment and enhance workforce skill composition without adverse wage effects.
China introduced the National Rural E-commerce Comprehensive Demonstration (NREC) policy against the backdrop of regional disparities in digital development and entrepreneurial activity. This place-based policy promoted e-commerce development through a county-township-village logistics and service system, with the aim of stimulating local entrepreneurship. Exploiting the NREC as a quasi-natural experiment, this study examined its effects on the quantity and quality of entrepreneurship at both the county and household levels. The results show that the NREC significantly increased the number of startups at the county level and raised households' business income and household employment. Suggestive evidence indicated that improved market access, enhanced digital skills, and eased credit constraints contributed to these effects. However, limited evidence was found for improvements in long-term firm survival or enterprise upgrading. Overall, the findings provide new evidence on the entrepreneurial impacts of place-based e-commerce policies, with implications for developing economies.
Green financial innovation policies play an important role in improving firms' green total factor productivity(GTFP)and balancing environmental protection with economic growth.Using firm-level data from China,this study examined the effect of green financial innovation policy on GTFP and explored the underlying mechanisms.A difference-in-differences approach was applied to evaluate policy effectiveness.The results indicate that this policy significantly increased firms'GTFP,with findings robust across multiple checks.Mechanism analysis indicated that internal governance channels improved GTFP by strengthening executives'environmental decision-making,encouraging green technological innovation,and enhancing environmental governance.External governance channels exerted their effects through alleviating financing constraints and improving market competitiveness.Substantial heterogeneity in policy effects was also identified across firms.These findings provide valuable insights into the optimization and targeted implementation of green financial innovation policies and highlight their role in supporting firms'green transformation and broader sustainable development objectives.
This study examined how industry concentration structure can affect mutual fund performance under the dual channels of fund manager effort and investor erosion.Using quarterly data from Chinese equity and equity-oriented hybrid funds from 2015 to 2022,the study investigated this relationship and its underlying mechanisms.The results show that greater industry concentration significantly improved fund performance.The positive effect stemmed from the interplay between managers'strategic efforts and the erosive impact of investor behavior.Mechanism analysis indicates that fund managers enhanced performance primarily through professional skill-driven industry allocation strategies rather than informational advantages.Industry concentration also produced time-lagged effects on performance.The effort-driven component of concentration contributed positively to performance,whereas investor subscriptions and redemptions generated significant erosion effects.The results identify industry concentration structure as a critical determinant of fund performance,providing theoretical and empirical foundations for re-evaluating fund performance sources.
Minimum wages standards for low-income groups may encourage firms to adopt low-skilled labor-saving measures,generating spillover effects on digital innovation.This paper examines how minimum wages can influence firms' digital innovation through the substitution of high-skilled labor for low-skilled labor and the substitution of labor by intelligent capital.Following an increase in minimum wages,the number of patents related to enterprises'digital innovation increased.Minimum wage standards encouraged the upgrading of labor skills within enterprises,and accelerated the construction of automated and intelligent systems,leading to the substitution of low-skilled labor by high-skilled labor and intelligent capital.The effects of minimum wages on enterprises'digital innovation were mainly observed in labor-intensive enterprises,non-state-owned enterprises,enterprises located in the eastern region,and those with relaxed financing constraints.This study provides insights into the factors influencing enterprises' digital innovation and can inform policies to encourage enterprises to achieve digital transformation.
