Population-replacement beliefs are often treated as an intensified form of demographic misperception. This article instead argues that they comprise three distinct layers: perceptions of the current migrant population size, expectations of future growth and the attribution of deliberate political agency. Using an original nationally representative survey in Turkey (N = 1136), we test whether these layers form a single attitude or operate independently. Respondents overestimate the migrant population and expect further growth, yet current misperception does not independently predict belief in deliberate replacement. Projected growth is more strongly associated with replacement belief, while partisanship structures the attribution of hostile intent. Overestimation is concentrated among far-right voters, whereas replacement belief extends more broadly across opposition constituencies. Socio-demographic effects are weaker and less consistent. The findings show that replacement belief is not simply a mistaken assessment of present demography. It is a future-oriented political interpretation that links anticipated group change to intentional agency. By demonstrating this layered structure in a majority-Muslim refugee host, the article also shows that replacement belief is not confined to Western white-majority settings.
Migrants' mental health has become an increasing public health concern amid persistent social and cultural displacement. Although social integration is widely recognised as a key determinant of mental health, existing research has largely focused on integration deficits, while overlooking imbalanced forms of integration. We address this gap by examining superficial integration, in which frequent face-to-face interactions outpace migrants' sense of belonging. Using original survey data from Wuhan and multigroup structural equation modelling (MG-SEM), we investigated how social integration influences migrants' mental health through digital-social processes across generations. We found that the mental health consequences of social integration depend not on social interaction or belonging alone, but on their social asymmetries. Frequent interactions become psychologically detrimental when they are not accompanied by a corresponding sense of belonging, revealing the adverse effects of superficial integration. We further identified two complementary mechanisms underlying this relationship. First, social media engagement intensifies the health consequences of social integration by strengthening both the benefits of belonging and the psychological costs of interaction. Second, a stronger destination-city belonging reduces perceived relative deprivation with respect to migrants' places of origin, thereby improving mental health, particularly among younger migrants. By moving beyond the deficit-based view of migrant integration, this study highlights the importance of examining how integration unfolds unevenly across social, digital, and spatial contexts. Our findings call for policies that go beyond increasing social contact and instead promote meaningful, emotionally supportive, and locally embedded forms of integration.
Attracting and retaining skilled individuals remains a central challenge for rural development. This study examines how push, pull, and capability conditions combine to shape urban-to-rural talent migration decisions in China. Drawing on a survey of 1551 respondents across six provinces in eastern, central and western China, the study applies fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) to examine the configurational effects of urban quality-of-life pressures, family care obligations, rural development prospects, PA, hometown attachment and self-efficacy. The findings show that no single condition is necessary for an urban-to-rural migration decision. Instead, six sufficient configurations are grouped into four broader types: family-care-centred configurations, an external-attraction configuration, a need-fulfilment configuration and a capability-enabled attraction configuration. Family care obligations and PA are prominent but configuration-dependent conditions, whereas urban quality-of-life pressures operate primarily as a peripheral contextual condition. By integrating push, pull and capability perspectives within a configurational framework, this study advances a talent-centred account of counter-urbanisation. The findings suggest that rural talent policies should move beyond uniform incentives and address heterogeneous combinations of family needs, perceived opportunities, place-based ties and individual capabilities.
This paper studies the determinants of the intentions to emigrate and conditional on migration aspirations, the destination choice in a number of Central East and Southeast European economies (CESEE). Using data from the OeNB Euro Survey, we apply a two-stage Heckman procedure to identify the drivers of migration intentions - specifically individuals' demographic and household attributes, financial conditions, past economic experiences, and future expectations. In the second stage, conditional on the stated intention to migrate, we examine the determinants of destination choice, distinguishing between EU15, EU-CEE, and extra-EU countries. This micro-level evidence indicates that economic and financial conditions (past, present, and expected) play an important role in shaping migration intentions, while non-economic factors, including individual demographic and family attributes, as well as network ties, also exert important influence. Destination preferences, conditional on an already existing intention to migrate are not simply a mechanical extension of intention determinants. The choice of the destination region is determined mostly by marital status, educational attainment, and GDP per capita variables in the origin and destination region. This reflects the conceptualisation of migration as a two-stage decision process, distinguishing between entry into the pool of potential migrants and destination choice within that pool. This stage-specific perspective thus allows to differentiate determinants of intentions and destination choice of prospective mobility, that empirical results based on actual migration decisions cannot deliver.
The minority ethnic share of the population of England and Wales rose from 8.7% in 2001 to over 18% in 2021. Using 2001, 2011 and 2021 Census data for England and Wales with consistent neighbourhood boundaries, this paper investigates how these aggregate changes translated into alterations in neighbourhood ethnic composition across the urban-rural continuum. We classify neighbourhoods into three diversity types (low, moderate, high) via an entropy-based metric and track transitions over two decades. Ethnic and racial diversity grew in all neighbourhood types and geographic settings. Between 2001 and 2021, neighbourhoods with all-White populations all but disappeared, neighbourhoods classified as low diversity with a large White majority declined in number, and counts of moderately diverse neighbourhoods increased. Additionally, the proportion of highly diverse (multiethnic) neighbourhoods tripled during this period. These changes follow a broadly hierarchical pattern, focused first, and most intensively, in London and subsequently occurring in secondary Metropolitan counties and relatively smaller urban settings. Finally, we detect some decade-specific differences, notably a deceleration in neighbourhood transitions toward greater ethnic diversity between 2011 and 2021. A counterfactual analysis of the consolidation of ethnic diversity into moderately diverse neighbourhoods rather than further condensation into high diversity spaces suggests the rising importance of locational preferences and constraints relative to demographic forces in shaping these new neighbourhood geographies.
