This study uses data from July 2008 to July 2023 to examine the role of investor sentiment in the relationship between the Federal Reserve’s tightening monetary policy and the Chinese stock market. This study employs a time-varying parameter vector autoregression model to examine the strength and direction of spillover effects of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy on the Chinese stock market through various channels. Further, it examines the role of investor sentiment and the dynamic relationships among these factors. The findings demonstrate that the impact of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes on the Chinese stock market has gradually diminished. For exchange rates and the spread, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index exhibits a negative short-term response but a positive medium- to long-term response. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index demonstrates a positive response to exports. Besides, under external monetary policy tightening cycles, Chinese investor sentiment mitigates spillover effects. When investor sentiment is high, it buffers the Federal Reserve’s tightening shocks, thereby producing a positive regulatory effect. JEL Classification E52, G12, G15, G41
Schengen visa rejection rates have become an increasingly important constraint on the international mobility of countries in the Global South. This study examines the factors associated with visa rejection rates across countries in the Global South. The analysis is based on a balanced panel dataset covering the period 2014–2024 and comprising annual observations for 50 countries. A dynamic panel data framework is employed using the two-step system generalized method of moments (SGMM) estimator. The findings indicate strong persistence in Schengen visa rejection rates, with countries experiencing relatively high rejection rates in previous periods tending to exhibit similar patterns over time. This dynamic continuity is consistent with, but does not by itself establish, a path-dependence mechanism. The results also suggest that migration pressure may be associated with stricter visa practices. At the same time, the SGMM estimates provide some evidence of a positive association between wider per capita income differentials and Schengen visa rejection rates. An additional heterogeneity analysis provides no evidence that the association between the income gap and visa rejection rates differs significantly across income groups. Robustness checks using fixed effects and Driscoll–Kraay estimators provide further evidence of persistence, while providing only partial support for the migration pressure and income-gap findings. Overall, the findings suggest that Schengen visa policies may extend beyond administrative procedures and may also reflect broader patterns of global mobility inequality. JEL Classification F22, F52, O15, C23, J15
China’s Pilot Free Trade Zones (PFTZs) serve as geographically bounded laboratories for market-oriented institutional reform as well as platforms for trade and investment. This policy review and prospective institutional analysis traces the program’s evolution from the establishment of the Shanghai PFTZ in 2013 to a nationwide network of 23 zones by 2026 and assesses its future direction. PFTZs have advanced trade facilitation, investment administration, financial reform, and public-service delivery, but their broader ambition to develop a mature and replicable framework for rules-based economic opening remains only partially realized. The principal constraint is the tension between centrally controlled experimentation and sufficient delegated authority at the local level. Centralized approval, fragmented administrative authority, asymmetric accountability, and heightened economic and geopolitical uncertainty have favored incremental, low-risk initiatives over deeper institutional reform. Nationwide expansion has broadened the program’s geographical reach while weakening its original emphasis on concentrated experimentation. The next phase should strengthen rule-based delegation for qualified PFTZs, protect good-faith experimentation through credible procedural safeguards, uphold competitive neutrality, and assess performance primarily by the quality and replicability of institutional reform rather than short-term growth in trade and investment. JEL Classification F13, F21, H11, O24, P21
Trade supports industrial upgrading by expanding access to new markets, advanced technologies, and skills. It also enhances output, improves product quality, and promotes sustainable outcomes, thereby strengthening a nation’s position within global value chains (GVCs). This article aims to explore the effects of trade linkages on various dimensions of industrial upgrading for Indian manufacturing firms from a GVC–Sustainable Development Goal–Environmental, Social, and Governance perspective at the micro level. The study used data on 17,545 firms in the manufacturing sector from the Center for Monitoring Indian Economy Prowess database, spanning 2009–2023. The study examines how GVC backward and forward linkages are linked to the economic, social, technological, and environmental dimensions of upgrading. Employing the system generalized method of moments estimation technique, the findings indicate a positive correlation between upgrading (economic and technological) and GVC integration. For high-tech manufacturing, export intensity is positively associated with pollution control expense. This is plausible because high-tech firms invest in green initiatives to maintain their reputation and market stature. For low- and medium-tech firms, import intensity is directly linked to pollution control expenses, as these firms continuously evolve, upgrade, and comply with international standards. JEL Classification F14, F23, F36
Technological innovation and absorption capacity are key drivers of productivity growth, competitiveness, and long-run economic development. This study estimates national efficiency in the BRICS+ economies (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and Indonesia), examines the effect of technology absorption capacity on national efficiency, and evaluates convergence with OECD countries. The generalized true random effects and fractional regression models are used to estimate national efficiency and examine the impact of absorption capacity on national efficiency. The key findings are fourfold. First, the BRICS+ economies operate below the production frontier, with an average efficiency level of 70.45%, indicating scope to increase output through more efficient resource use. Second, the average persistent and transient efficiency levels of 75.98% and 92.68%, respectively, suggest that structural inefficiencies constitute a greater constraint on long-run performance than short-term operational inefficiencies. Third, stronger technology absorption significantly improves persistent efficiency, although its effect on transient efficiency is comparatively moderate. Fourth, the results indicate slow club convergence between the BRICS+ and OECD economies, suggesting that efficiency gaps are narrowing only gradually. These findings highlight the importance of strengthening institutional quality, modernising infrastructure, and expanding investment in health, education, skills development, and research and development to improve long-run national efficiency and narrow the performance gap with advanced economies. JEL Classification F210, O33, O47
