The effects on the pace of economic development of the 2020 crisis caused by the pandemic significantly differed across Russia’s regions. The trajectory of exit from the crisis in January-April 2021 displayed some dramatic territorial differences, which must be taken into account when implementing regional policies and the measures of financial support for the regions.
Analysis of trend components of production indices for May through July 2021 suggests that growth factors in trends for the extractive industries since the beginning of 2021 continue to have effect for two reasons: a pickup in demand for power-generating coal on the part of European and Asian countries and an ebbing restrictions related to the OPEC+ agreement, owing to increased quotas on daily oil production volumes in member countries. The manufacturing sector’s trend component keeps growing, too, on the back of high prices and active external demand for industry products, which account for a substantial share of production (metallurgy, oil refining and the chemical industry). The article is prepared based on the results of the research work of the RANEPA state order for 2021 «Modeling and forecasting of indices of the Russian wholesale energy market using methods of combining data of different frequencies»).
Russian GDP in Q3 2020 went up in relative terms following a slight decline in Q2. During January-September 2020, GDP contracted by 3,5% compared to the same period of the previous year. Total budget revenues decreased by 12,1%. Budget expenditure posted growth across all enlarged lines with the highest growth in expenses on public health (by 92,4%), social policy (by 32,5%), and housing and utilities infrastructure (by 84,6%). In October 2020, retail trade turnover nearly hit the level of October 2019 in comparable prices. Retail sales in January-October 2020 contracted by 4.6% in annual terms including by 2.6% on food products and by 6,3% on non-food products. The physical volume of paid services decreased by 18% against January-October 2019. The number of employed went up from 10.0 mn people in May to 70,5 mn people in August-September 2020. The ILO unemployment rate stayed at 6,3–6,4% slightly falling in autumn following the peak in August. In September 2020, duration of hours worked and the count of temporary absent from work returned to the pre-crisis rate. The number of employed in the informal sector also hit the pre-crisis rate. The number of jobless registered in employment agencies went up growing till the end of September when it hit nearly 3,7 mn people of which 3,3 mn received unemployed benefits. At the end of October these indexes contracted to 3.5 and 1,7 mn people, respectively. In January-September 2020, the real disposable cash incomes contracted by 4,3% on January-September 2019, the real accrued wages and the real pensions increased by 2,6 and 2,7%, respectively. Incomes from business contracted by 16.5% in real terms, and from property – by 8,2%. The volume of social payments went up by 12,1%. The article was written on the basis of the RANEPA state assignment research programme.
In 2020, the coronavirus pandemic triggered the largest drop in global output since World War II. However, it turned out to be less than expected at the beginning of the pandemic. International organizations are improving global economic outlook as the vaccination of the population accelerates and new incentive measures are adopted. However, there remains a high degree of uncertainty regarding the rate of recovery.
Growing demand for vocational training and limited access to quality education in some parts of Russia have brought about inter- and intra-regional youth migration {1; 2. The youth migration peak takes place at the age of 18 when young people seek to receive higher education. To a lesser extent, education-related migration takes also place at the age of 16 when secondary vocational training begins.
Owing to the Russian banking sector’s stability based on excess liquidity and high levels of capital, banks can step up corporate lending operations on the market. Overdue debts remain at a low level, while the debt on loans restructured because of the pandemic keeps growing and represents a potential credit risk.
The management of the banking sector’s liquidity and the short-term money market interest rate by the Bank of Russia is influenced by the structural liquidity surplus and the operations of the Federal Treasury of Russia to place temporarily free budget funds in credit institutions. The interaction of the two branches of the monetary authorities in Russia can be improved in order to manage the short-term interest rate of the money market more effectively.
Проведенный анализ трендовых составляющих индексов промышленного производства в мае-июле 2021 г. позволяет говорить о том, что факторы роста в добывающем секторе, сохраняющиеся с начала 2021 г., продолжают действовать: увеличение спроса на энергетический уголь и природный газ со стороны европейских и азиатских стран; ослабление влияния ограничений, связанных с соглашением ОПЕК+ из-за повышения квот на суточные объемы добычи нефти в странах-участницах. Трендовая составляющая обрабатывающего сектора также продолжает расти за счет высоких цен и активного внешнего спроса на продукцию отраслей, занимающих существенную долю в структуре производства (металлургическая, химическая, нефтеперерабатывающая промышленность). Работа выполнена в рамках государственного задания РАНХиГС (тема «Моделирование и прогнозирование показателей оптового рынка электроэнергии России с использованием методов совмещения данных разной частотности»).
Despite the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, according to the Q1 2021 results, the revenues of the regions’ consolidated budgets not only did not drop against Q1 2020, but also showed a noticeable increase, which was ensured not only by the growth of fiscal transfers from the federal budget, but also by the growth of their own tax and non-tax revenues (+9.0%) of regional and local budgets. The debt burden of the regions, although it has increased over the past 12 months, remains significantly below its maximum for the end of March of 33.8%, recorded on April 1, 2016. According to H1 2021 results, we can expect double-digit growth rates in tax and non-tax revenues of the consolidated budgets of the subjects of the Russian Federation, and the main trend in the structure of the regions’ public debt until the end of this year will be the replacement of commercial loans with budget ones. It is also possible that the debt burden of the subjects of the Russian Federation, which previously pursued a strict budget policy and currently have a low level of public debt, will increase.
Несмотря на пандемию и экономический спад, 2020 г. оказался сравнительно успешным для многих финансовых рынков, что выразилось в укреплении курсов валют к доллару и позитивной доходности фондовых индексов. Российский рубль оказался в числе наиболее ослабленных валют, а доходность индекса РТС была отрицательной. Недооценка рубля и акций российских компаний в истекшем году дают надежду на укрепление отечественной валюты и позитивную доходность российских акций в 2021 г. Предпринятые многими странами меры поддержки экономики способствовали смягчению последствий пандемии и позволяют надеяться на возобновление роста в 2021 г. Однако в период после пандемии большинству крупных экономик придется решать проблему повышения их глобальной конкурентоспособности и реализовывать структурные реформы. Опыт Китая показывает, что в решении указанных проблем в этой стране все более явным становится выбор в пользу усиления вмешательства государства в экономику. Насколько результативным и востребованным в других странах окажется такой курс, покажет будущее.
A feature of the recovery of the Russian economy in Q1 2021 was the outstripping dynamic of the growth of foreign trade turnover and investment in fixed assets relative to the dynamic of GDP. Against the background of high turbulence of the commodity market, the outpacing growth of non-primary non-energy exports and high-tech products reflects the adaptation of the Russian economy to the changing situation on the world market when implementing systemic measures of state support.
Rotating events act as powerful development driver territory potential. Review the situation of the congress-exhibition activities fundamental role not only as marketing promotion tool but also development driver. Surveyed the situation of the congress-exhibition activities fundamental role not only as marketing promotion tool but also development driver Developed a provision regarding the events methodology in the discourse of socio-economic changes, because event can be treated as subjective unit that could create a positive environment for institutional changes and diversification of regional tourism products.
В 2020 г. положительное сальдо торгового баланса России существенно снизилось по сравнению с 2019 г. вследствие уменьшения стоимостных объемов экспорта при незначительном сокращении импортных поставок. Несмотря на сочетание крайне неблагоприятных факторов, сальдо счета текущих операций оставалось положительным. Нетто-отток капитала частного сектора в 2020 г. увеличился более чем вдвое по сравнению с предыдущим годом. Ключевую роль в этом сыграло сокращение иностранных обязательств банков и прочих секторов на фоне усиления геополитических рисков, падения интереса инвесторов к активам развивающихся стран и роста глобальной неопределенности. В результате за 2020 г. курс рубля к доллару снизился на 19,3% и достиг 73,9 руб./долл.
В июле 2021 г. в целом не наблюдалось каких-либо серьезных отклонений от показателей предыдущего месяца либо выходящих за рамки нескольких последних месяцев. Тем не менее можно отметить, что диффузный индекс портфеля заказов снизился на 10 п.п., а диффузный индекс запасов готовой продукции возрос – на 12 п.п. При этом доля предприятий, не собирающихся брать новые ссуды у банков в ближайшие три месяца, достигла 63% – максимального за два года значения.
The development of the Moscow transport complex is of strategic importance for the economic growth of the region and Russia as a whole. State program financing of the capital’s transport makes up one fifth of the Moscow budget, which determines high requirements for the results of using public resources, but often changes in the program document negatively affect the analysis of the evolution of the transport complex. The main results of the functioning of transport are reflected in 10 indicators of the Moscow Transport Strategy, for each of which a significant improvement was stated over the past decade. The multi-vector development of various types of transport and transport infrastructure led to the strengthening of Moscow’s rating compared to nine other leading megacities of the world – from seventh position in 2010 to second in 2018.
At its Board of Directors meeting in June, the Bank of Russia raised the key rate for the third time since the beginning of the year, by 0.5 p.p. to 5.5% per annum. This decision was caused by an accelerated inflation triggered by reviving demand as the containment measures were being lifted, alongside the ongoing super-loose fiscal and monetary policies in the majority of countries, rising prices in world commodity markets, and increasing inflationary expectations. As seen by the results of May 2021, inflation in annual terms reached 6% and, according to our estimates, its yearend index year will be at least 5.3%, which points to a high probability of continuing monetary policy tightening.
Миграционный прирост населения России в январе-феврале 2021 г. практически не изменился по сравнению с тем же периодом предыдущего года, но смог компенсировать только 14,6% потерь от естественной убыли. Численность трудовых мигрантов в России за год сократилась более чем на треть, при этом все в большей степени такая миграция обеспечивается работниками из Средней Азии.
At the beginning of this year, the growth rate of residential mortgage lending (RML) corresponded to the average level of 2020. The market situation is largely influenced by the reduction in interest rates caused by the implementation of state preferential mortgage programs. The rise in prices in the primary and secondary housing markets amid more expensive bank funding and an increase in construction costs create potential upside risks in the real estate market and results in a mortgage bubble, which forces the government and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to take measures to cool the market.
В статье рассматриваются основные тенденции приватизационного процесса и смежные аспекты государственной имущественной политики в 2020 – первой половине 2021 гг.
The mobilization of investment resources is a key problem of economic recovery and sustainable long-term economic growth. A restrained decline in investment activity in the acute phase of the coronavirus pandemic crisis determined the starting conditions for business activity in the construction and investment complex in early 2021. In Q1 2021, the growth of investments in fixed assets amounted to 2% compared to the same period of the previous year, with an outstripping growth of investments in manufacturing and socially oriented types of economic activities.
