In order to systematically and scientifically evaluate the foundation and current situation of the construction of an international science and technology innovation center in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,this paper summarizes the relevant research progress of the three major domestic science and technology innovation centers in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,Beijing and Shanghai,constructs a science and technology innovation center development evaluation index system including three first-level indicators of innovation environment,innovation input and innovation output while borrowing from the indicator systems measuring the innovation level at home and abroad,and conducts a comparative analysis on the three major science and technology innovation centers.The study believes that the construction of a science and technology innovation center in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area has four major advantages:a superior innovation environment as foundation,significant results in intellectual property right protection,a sound business operation environment,and a mature cross-border industry-university-research cooperation model.However,there are challenges such as low human capital levels,insufficient investment in start-up venture capital and public sector R&D funding,as well as certain institutional barriers to cross-border industry-university-research cooperation.The results show that in the future,the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area needs to further relax population mobility,promote the spread of innovation atmosphere,increase the degree of openness to the outside world in an all-round way,step up investment in public sector research and development,accelerate the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries,and promote the development of financial technologies so as to promote its global science and technology innovation center.
This study aims to delve into China's digital content trade,focusing on its export scale,structural features,and other issues.Following the calculation methodology of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development(UNCTAD),this paper assesses China's digital content trade with 135 major global economies.The analysis encompasses the export scale of digital content,specifically examining digital audio-visuals,digital games,and digital books.We not only measured overall trade volume but also scrutinized the export values within these three distinct categories of digital content products.Moreover,we conducted an in-depth examination of China's digital content trade's developmental trajectory,primary export destinations,and the significant traded products with different destinations.Research findings advocate that major economies like the European Union,the United States,Japan,and South Korea stand as pivotal export markets for China's digital content trade.Notably,digital games and digital audio-visuals emerge as the primary trade commodities,with digital games exhibiting substantial competitiveness abroad.However,consumer preferences,internet penetration,and diverse factors significantly influence the preferences for different digital content types from China across varied economies.For instance,digital games are favored by consumers in Japan,South Korea,and North America,while consumers in other parts of China prefer digital audio-visual products.In light of the rapid evolution of digital content trade,the study underscores for China to actively engage in international digital trade governance,strengthen its influence in formulating digital trade regulations and establish universally standardized digital trade rules promptly;to further integrate culture and technology to enhance the international competitiveness of China's digital content products,elevating them within the value chain's higher echelons;to tailor export promotion strategies for different digital content types,such as enhancing translation quality,organizing cultural exchange initiatives,and targeting emerging markets.
Amidst the impact of the Sino-US trade friction,this study delves into unleashing China's agricultural export potential and refining the countries'agricultural export landscape.Leveraging data from 1996 to 2019,our focus centers on agricultural goods affected by heightened tariffs during the Sino-US trade friction.Departing from conventional trade potential estimations,this paper employs elasticity analysis to assess the short-term export potential of these goods across 36 countries along the"the Belt and Road".The findings advocate that China's agricultural products,under increased tariffs,hold substantial potential to replace analogous goods from competitor countries,particularly in markets like Italy,South Korea,Vietnam,Indonesia,the Philippines,Malaysia,and Russia.Notably,the demand elasticity across these 36 countries is manifested in the import of Chinese agricultural products affected by added tariffs,with Southeast Asia emerging as a focal point for potential exports.The study indicates for China to concentrate on lowering production and trade expenses in the agricultural sector,creating flexibility in pricing,and enhancing trade collaboration with countries along the route,and specifically,leveraging the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP)to facilitate deeper trade ties between China and ASEAN countries,thereby bolstering China's export to the"the Belt and Road"countries and optimizing its agricultural export trade pattern.
China has witnessed a gradual transition from a traditional development pattern dominated by international macro circulation to a new development pattern where domestic macro circulation takes precedence and domestic and international circulations complement and promote each other since the global financial crisis.To study the mechanics behind the evolution of the dual circulation development pattern dominated by domestic macro circulation,and to unravel the effect of the formation and development of this new pattern in advancing common prosperity,this study places the evolution of economic development pattern within the context of shifts in division of labor,employs emerging classical economics methods such as inframarginal analysis and numerical simulation to scrutinize the evolution of economic patterns and their impact on common prosperity.The study argues that the uncertainty and instability in one-directional external circulation underscores the necessity for effectively integrating external and internal circulations.Sustained enhancements in domestic market efficiency and relative production advantages in China contribute to expanding the scale of internal circulation and bolstering its prominence,thus being conducive to establishing a dual circulation pattern where internal circulation takes precedence.While an economic pattern centered on external circulation enhances the prosperity of geographically advantaged regions,a dual circulation pattern,focusing on internal circulation,not only reduces regional income disparities but also narrows the wealth gap among individuals.Accelerating the construction of a dual circulation pattern dominated by the domestic macro circulation significantly contributes to realizing common prosperity for all.The research introduces a novel theoretical analysis framework and perspective on the evolution of economic development patterns by analyzing the relationship between dual circulation development pattern and common prosperity through model-building.It also offers substantial macroeconomic insights into expediting the establishment of a dual circulation pattern and thus fostering a society founded on common prosperity.
Social integration is not only a key symbol of the integration of Hong Kong and Macao into the overall development of China,but also an important content clearly stated in the Outline of the Development Plan for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area.In order to analyze and discuss the existing measures,current problems and improvement strategies in the field of integrated society construction in Guangdong,Hong Kong and Macao,this paper selects Nansha area of Guangzhou City as a research case and explains the modernization connotation of soft infrastructure in the construction of an integrated society in Guangdong,Hong Kong and Macao,using the three coordinates of China's modernization,i.e.material,institutional and human modernization as the analytical framework.On the basis of this concept,by analyzing Nansha's experience and existing shortcomings in social integration,this paper explores the social construction plan of the Greater Bay Area aiming at a deeply integrated society in Guangdong,Hong Kong and Macao.The research believes that Nansha is mainly making efforts in the three core areas of"soft infrastructure",namely employment,medical care and education,and promoting the integrated development of Guangdong,Hong Kong and Macao in the field of social construction through specific measures in the two aspects of policy support system and cooperation platform construction.According to the study,Nansha needs to strengthen the construction of an integrated society in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and take the lead in building an integrated development pattern in this location in the field of people's livelihood through coping strategies and countermeasures such as the relationship between"industry,city and people",the supply system of public services and the sharing of people's livelihood resources.
Enhancing the modernization level of industrial and supply chains can effectively enhance the international competitiveness of China's industries.The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is the convergence point of domestic and international dual circulations,and has outstanding advantages in cultivating a modernized industrial system and effectively keeping the coherence of international regulations and institutions.However,there are still shortcomings in the formulation of regulations for collaborative development,convergence of supply chain management mechanisms and the modernization level enhancement.In order to better promote cooperation in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area with regulatory coherence and promote the modernization of the industrial and supply chains,this paper analyzes the status quo and specific issues of industrial regulatory coherence and institutional connectivity within the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area from three aspects:industrial chain cooperation,supply chain synergy and modernization level enhancement,based on the theory of regional integration and regional governance.The study believes that the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area has made significant progress in the top-level design of industrial chain cooperation,supply chain synergy rules,and innovation factor circulation rules.However,there are problems such as homogenous industrial development,insufficient customs clearance convenience,and temporary bottlenecks in the alignment of modernization standards.The study shows that the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area should accelerate the alignment of industrial chain upgrade rules,achieve integrated development of the industrial chain,continue to put supply management rules in order,build a stable supply chain system,promote the regulatory coherence of industrial modernization development,jointly enhance the scientific research strength of the three locations,promote the smooth flow of various factors,boost the modernization and upgrading of industrial and supply chains to achieve new breakthroughs,and establish new advantages in participating in international competition and cooperation.
The quest for Chinese-style modernization and common prosperity necessitates the optimization of income distribution frameworks and mechanisms for wealth accumulation.Understanding the impact of economic financialization on income distribution has emerged as a crucial foundation for crafting informed policies.Using data from the provincial panel spanning 2013 to 2020 and a time series from 2002 to 2020,and by constructing a fixed effect dynamic panel model,an intermediary effect model,and an SVAR model,the study empirically examines the impact and working mechanism of economic financialization on income distribution.The study asserts that economic financialization,on the whole,widens the income disparity among residents,posing a challenge to the promotion of common prosperity.Moreover,shifts in income distribution exhibit a degree of inertia over time.Furthermore,the results of channel testing indicate that economic financialization drives the upgrade of industrial structures,thereby impacting the income distribution of residents.Additionally,the heterogeneity test conducted within urban and rural areas illustrates that economic financialization contributes to uneven income distribution,notably more pronounced within cities and towns.Consequently,the research underscores the necessity of innovating and coordinating relevant financial systems and policies to foster wealth accumulation and improve the income distribution system in order to counteract the uneven income distribution stemming from economic financialization.
Aiming at the “new urban diseases” that appear in the development of some cities, such as the isolation of cultural consumption space and values, over emphasis on construction rather than operation, and separation of production, living and consumption, this paper uses the scene theory as an analysis tool to systematically analyze the evolutionary trends of the urban cultural consumption space from facilities to scenes, and explores the generation mechanism of the vitality of urban cultural consumption space. According to the study, from the perspectives of scene elements and interactive relationships such as convenience facilities, neighborhood structures, cultural activities, values and diverse groups of people, the creation of urban cultural consumption space vitality is a systematic project, which is related to the improvement of material elements such as convenience facilities and also to the support of other soft elements such as social network relationships and space brand, etc. It is necessary to attract consumer groups through the combination of convenient facilities, neighborhood relations and diversified activities, and more importantly to pay more attention to the agglomeration effect of specific values and lifestyles on diverse groups of people. The study also argues that based on the concept of space input and output mechanism, we should promote the connection between consumer facilities and diversified values, enrich space forms and functions, pay attention to space management to enhance space stickiness, create creative communities to accumulate creative network assets, and create holistic consumption scenes to enhance the vitality of urban cultural consumption space.
ChatGPT作为新一代人工智能技术,将会对经济社会生活带来广泛而深远的影响.通过梳理ChatGPT概念及技术架构,从多维度视角研究新一代人工智能技术如何影响数字经济的发展.研究认为,ChatGPT是具有深度学习能力的人工智能语言模型,在"ChatGPT +数字营销""ChatGPT +互联网教育"和"ChatGPT +互联网医疗"等应用场景中,ChatGPT驱动了教育、医疗、传媒、电商等领域的数字化转型;Chat-GPT能够从驱动技术赋能、促进行业转型、催生新兴产业、提供新应用场景、盘活企业活力、优化业务流程等多方面、多维度,来提升数字经济的行业边界,降低数字经济的成本,提升数字经济的效率,进而有效推动数字经济高质量发展.
为了研究中美贸易摩擦对广东省经济及税收收入的影响,探究减税降费政策进一步实施的空间,选取广东省GDP、进出口与税收数据,结合描述性统计与计量模型进行实证分析.研究认为,中美贸易摩擦对广东省的GDP与税收收入产生一定程度的影响,但是广东省的整体经济与税收收入依然保持着增长趋势;广东省的出口经济整体向好,对美出口企业和第二产业中的部分制造业受到影响.研究表明,广东省地方政府要进行合理的税收减免,降低消费税及其他小额税种的税率,落实税收优惠政策,降低企业税负促进GDP增长;坚持高水平对外开放,扶持出口企业开拓新兴市场,加大广东自贸区招商引资力度;打造科技创新平台,鼓励企业加强核心技术研发.
中国化时代化的马克思主义方法论,既具有马克思主义方法论的一般特征,又具有中国化时代化的特殊属性,是一般与特殊的有机统一."人民至上"的价值坐标、"自信自立"的主体定力、"守正创新"的进取精神、"问题导向"的矛盾思维、"系统观念"的大局意识、"胸怀天下"的人类情结,共同构成了中国化时代化马克思主义"六位一体"的方法论基础,立体化表征着当代中国马克思主义的思想智慧.
随着全球价值链重构加速,各国相继出台竞争性产业政策,以推进产业链升级和价值链位势攀升.中国作为新兴经济体和最大的发展中国家,在维护自由贸易和多边主义的过程中,虽有大国赶超的历史经验,但全球化纵深发展催生出不同于以往的现实约束,亟待思考破局之道.基于中国参与全球价值链的历史实践,通过文本分析法与比较分析法研析当前治理环境的约束特征并提出战略选择.研究发现,直接参与工业现代化进程、推动产业结构转型升级、专攻全球价值链特定环节和对标全球价值链分工体系有助于中国深度嵌入全球价值链,但全球价值链科技藩篱高筑、纵向分工萎缩而横向竞争加剧、协调机制失衡和缺乏治理共识等现实约束阻碍中国参与全球价值链治理进程.研究表明,中国亟待加强国际科技创新治理、聚焦价值链重点产业治理、统筹国内外平衡治理和深化区域合作协同治理.
识别脱贫农户返贫风险并制定有效的治理策略是现阶段解决脱贫攻坚和乡村振兴有效衔接的关键所在,也是实现农民共同富裕的重要任务.针对脱贫农户生活水平不稳定可能导致的返贫问题,基于陕南脱贫农户的实地调查数据,构建返贫风险指标评价体系并利用物元模型评估脱贫农户返贫风险程度,深层次剖析返贫风险的影响因素,建立脱贫农户返贫防范机制.研究认为:陕南大部分脱贫农户处于一般风险水平,且差异较小;脱贫农户成员健康状况、遭遇自然灾害风险、环境污染影响农产品质量风险和社会关系网是导致陕南脱贫农户可能返贫的重要因素,说明脱贫区的政策制度、自然环境和资源禀赋、脱贫农户个体能力是陕南脱贫农户可能返贫的影响因素;建立依据事前防御、事中处理、事后追踪体系的全过程性风险预警机制,加强脱贫农户思想观念培育,注重内生动力提升,提高脱贫农户对外部环境变化的适应能力,打造能够产生经济效益的优势产业,促进生态农业、农旅产业、文化产业发展,改善升级乡村教育医疗,提高道路水利、信息网络、天然气能源等基础设施建设,促进脱贫农户社会资本积累,提高可持续生计水平和社会参与能力.
在低生育率和老龄化背景下,要实现老有所安和关怀少年的成长,国家体系化的高质量养老公共服务体系需要进一步完善.分析"一老一小"人口形势、生育意愿下降背后的原因,研究建立健全养老服务体系的路径.研究认为,构建高质量公共服务体系要强调"一个中心":敬老爱幼、安老怀少;"两翼互动",打造老年友好型社会和生育友好型社会;"四轮驱动",即高质量取决于服务的福利性、有效性、可及性和及时性.研究还认为,对高龄老人、独居老人、空巢老人和失能老人群体的服务是养老服务业的重点人群,老年友好型社会的养老责任包括对这些人群的兜底养老、普惠养老、公平养老和品质养老的责任,公共服务体系建设包括老年的价值友好、文化友好、政策友好、环境友好和服务友好;生育友好型社会的生育责任包括适度生育、优化生育、生育服务和生育保障的责任,公共服务体系建设则要体现生育的价值(文化)友好、福利友好、婚姻友好和服务友好.研究表明,在全方位构建现代化"安老怀少"统一的政策、制度和社会公共服务体系中,社区是关键环节,需要顶层设计和分类推进相协调,才能实现人口均衡发展与国家高质量发展的双重目标.
世界经济的下行风险和贸易保护主义使得出口企业面临的贸易政策不确定性增加,为探究贸易政策不确定性对企业技术升级的影响,从出口技术复杂度的角度,基于2000-2007 年中国海关贸易数据库和中国工业企业数据库的匹配数据,利用中国加入世界贸易组织及获得与美国的永久正常贸易伙伴关系地位为准自然冲击,通过倍差法实证模型,研究贸易政策不确定性下降对企业出口技术复杂度的影响效应,并对倍差法模型的有效性进行检验;探究贸易政策不确定性下降作用于企业出口技术复杂度的具体影响机制,划分贸易方式、企业类型和企业出口行为进行异质性分析.研究表明:贸易政策不确定性的下降对企业出口技术复杂度起到了促进作用,这种促进作用以扩大企业出口规模、增强企业创新能力为直接与间接的影响渠道,在加工贸易企业上的表现明显大于一般贸易企业,在民营企业、外资企业和存续企业上的表现也十分显著.为争取稳定有利的外部环境,国家需要做好长期战略部署和发展规划的,加快构建中国与其他国家的多边贸易体制;企业需要聚力突破关键技术,加快促进数字化转型,建设以我为主的全球价值链.
中国特色社会主义进入新时代,如何使人人都有通过勤奋劳动实现自身发展的机会,进而激发全体人民通过劳动奋斗实现共同富裕具有重要的时代意蕴.围绕"为什么能""为什么要"和"如何去做"这一逻辑思路,梳理高校劳动教育助推共同富裕的理论依据,在厘清高校劳动教育与共同富裕间的逻辑契合,辨析高校劳动教育助推共同富裕的关键要义的基础上,紧密结合高校劳动育人实际,研究构建高校劳动教育助推共同富裕的路径.研究认为,从劳动技能、劳动认知、劳动理念上全面提升大学生的劳动素养,需要在与新理念、新媒介、新形式的紧密结合之中,注重学科融合、成果凝练和总结提高;需要深刻融入思想政治理论课、有机结合课程思政、开展好劳动教育精品课程的全课程体系建设,谋划高校劳动教育的"认知提升"体系;需要通过日常劳动教育、实践劳动教育、就业劳动教育等,共同形成劳动技能教育的全方位、全过程体系,为促进全体人民共同富裕提供坚实助力.
针对过度旅游对旅游目的地造成紊乱的问题,对过度旅游的成因及危害进行总结分析,利用统计数据确定综合旅游密度、旅游强度、民宿密度3项判断过度旅游状态的指标,并将3项指标分数之和作为评价过度旅游的指标值;使用Zipf分布双对数图与H/T断裂点法确定数据等级划分方式,采用定距分数累加方式建立过度旅游综合评价方法;利用国内外代表性旅游城市的数据进行了实证分析,验证了所建立综合评价方法的可行性.研究认为,过度旅游综合评价分数给出了旅游目的地过度旅游程度的相对顺序,能够推测各样本过度旅游风险所对应的要素,为制定过度旅游对应政策的优先级提供参考;在样本城市中,国外过度旅游目的地注重流量管控、征收旅游税等三四级对策,而中国过度旅游目的地注重景区保护和流量管控等二三级对策,尽管国内样本城市旅游服务负荷已高于部分发达国家,但未出现排斥游客的过度旅游现象;国内仍需要利用经济手段避免部分地区的旅游业依赖,升级城市景区保护为城市全域保护,适时推进旅游税政策.
受单边主义与保护主义的冲击,当前全球贸易大幅放缓,贸易便利化成为各国政府和国际经济组织探寻贸易持续平稳增长的新途径.基于2010-2014年世界银行的跨国企业调研数据,运用泊松伪最大似然估计法(PPML),从理论与实证两个方面考察贸易便利化对出口的影响.研究表明:出口国和目的国贸易便利化水平的提高对一国出口增长、出口结构优化有显著的推动作用,并且出口国贸易便利化的效果比目的国的更大;分组回归的结果证实了上述影响在不同发展阶段的国家组之间存在显著差异,发展中国家贸易便利化水平的提高能更显著地促进出口增长;出口国和目的国的贸易便利化水平是影响双边出口扩展边际和集约边际的关键因素,尤其是在外部融资依赖度高或者合约密集度大的行业,出口国、目的国贸易便利化水平的提高都将直接或者间接地促进高外部融资依赖、合约密集型行业的出口增长.贸易便利化水平对出口的直接影响能降低贸易成本、提高过境效率等,间接影响通过促进整体经济活动能带动出口,该影响在外部融资依赖度高或者合约密集度大的行业中更加显著.中国加入CPTPP将有利于进一步加强贸易便利化软环境建设、优化制度环境,能对CPTPP成员国基础设施建设、电子商务发展提供积极助益.
国际货币的网络效应是一国货币获得国际货币地位并得以维系的基础,网络效应从理论上解释了现行国际货币体系,但是当前网络效应产生的根本原因阐释仍然缺如.以石油美元为切入点,梳理石油美元体系形成的历史背景和过程,分析美国是如何通过对石油生产的控制,配合国内深度发达的金融市场,使得美元全面主导石油的计价权、定价权、交易媒介、结算货币、风险管理、富余资金投资等多个领域,从而形成了后布雷顿森林体系时期美元国际货币网络效应的基础;进一步分析了石油美元体系潜在的脆弱性、近期涌现的石油贸易去美元化现象及其对人民币国际化的启示.研究认为,鉴于目前以石油美元体系等为基础所形成的网络效应,以美元为主导的现行国际金融体系在未来较长一段时间内仍将持续;人民币国际化过程中应发展以人民币计价的原油期货等大宗商品衍生品市场,促进大宗商品计价、定价与贸易结算等人民币化,培育人民币使用的网络效应.
为了更好地理解俄罗斯经济治国方略的内在逻辑,深化中俄合作,以俄罗斯加入世界贸易组织作为时间节点,对俄罗斯经济基本面和普京经济治国方略的重点方向进行系统分析,从"国际-国家-社会"三层次进行国际政治经济学视角的机制解释.研究认为,俄罗斯入世以来经济治国的方向主要是推动经济结构转型升级,减少对企业监管限制、促进消费和投资来增强市场活力,改善人口老龄化问题、提高居民生活水平;从国际层面,入世使俄罗斯更加深入地融入了全球经济体系,但是开放贸易下资源型国家的要素禀赋优势挤占了其他经济部门发展资源,使得俄罗斯可能出现贫困化增长,调整过度依赖能源等原材料产品的经济结构转型迫在眉睫;俄罗斯坚定地推动欧亚经济联盟,对外经济战略的制定体现了的国家自主性;俄罗斯国内社会形成以了行业为基础的政治联盟,直接影响了具体经济议题上的政治决策,经贸政策既紧密团结独联体国家又实行"向东看"战略.
