Climate change is expected to alter selection regimes acting on diverse traits across many species in both direct and indirect ways. Higher temperatures may alter metabolisms, phenologies, resources, and ultimately trophic dynamics. Many studies have examined how eco-evolutionary dynamics are affected by changing climates, but few are able to quantify selection and attribute it specifically. We used the goldenrod ball-gall system, a tightly linked group of interacting species, to test the phenotypic, phenological, and fitness changes when exposed to experimental warming. The larvae of the fly Eurosta solidaginis induce galls on stems of Solidago altissima. Previous research has shown that larvae inducing small galls are more vulnerable to attack by the parasitoid wasp, Eurytoma gigantea, whereas those inducing large ones are more likely to be attacked by avian predators. Thus, natural enemies impose stabilizing selection on the fly for gall size. Under experimental warming, S. altissima showed no phenological change. Gall initiation was accelerated under warming, but gall growth plateaued earlier. This caused significantly smaller final gall diameters in the Warmed treatment. While this smaller size led to treatment differences in attack rates by some enemies, the optimal gall size for Eurosta was similar in both treatments. Warming thus caused mean gall size to deviate more strongly from the optimum, thereby inducing directional selection. The shape of the fitness function was similar between treatments; hence the strength of stabilizing selection was unchanged. These results show that warming could influence species’ phenotypes and their selective environment through altered species interactions.
Record-breaking ocean temperatures during the fourth global coral bleaching event in 2024 caused unprecedented heat stress in the central Red Sea. To assess ecological impacts, we quantified bleaching prevalence, coral mortality, and changes in scleractinian coral cover using in situ benthic transect surveys (5 m and 10 m depth) and monitoring of tagged coral colonies along a depth gradient (5 m to 25 m) on reefs spanning a nearshore-offshore gradient. Bleaching prevalence was high, with 90% (5 m) and 87% (10 m) of coral cover showing visible signs of bleaching in September 2024. In contrast to previous bleaching events in 2010 and 2015, which exhibited less bleaching on offshore reefs, bleaching prevalence was uniformly high on all reefs across the cross-shelf gradient. Overall, live coral cover declined by 65% (from 20% in August 2024 to 7% in January/February 2025), with the largest declines in branching Pocillopora and Acropora, decreasing by 98% (from 4.6% to 0.1%) and 100% (from 1.3% to 0.0%), respectively. Tagged colony data corroborated the severe decline of branching corals in shallow waters, with 100% mortality occurring up to 15 m depth and 0% mortality at 25 m, demarcating a clear depth limit of the heat exposure. The divergence in the spatial pattern of bleaching in 2024 compared to previous events and the magnitude of coral cover loss underscore the severity of this event and highlight the urgent threat climate change poses to reef function and resilience in the central Red Sea.
Climate change poses increasing risks to cold-adapted species, particularly through rising summer temperatures. However, the demographic impacts of thermal stress on these species remain poorly quantified. To address this, we estimated three population indices of a threatened charr species, Southern Asian Dolly Varden (SADV, Salvelinus curilus), including fish density, biomass, and environmental DNA (eDNA) concentration, across 8-24 streams in the Shiretoko Peninsula, a UNESCO World Natural Heritage site in Japan. By integrating these indices with water temperature records from the preceding summer, we identified significant effects of summer water temperatures on SADV populations in the following spring, with particularly strong relationship detected using eDNA. In addition, comparisons of summer water temperature metrics indicated that streams containing several artificial in-stream barriers upstream of the survey sites exhibited, on average, 2°C higher summer temperatures than streams with fewer barriers (p < 0.01). These streams also exhibited 15-28% higher proportions of time above 16°C (>16°C(%), p < 0.05), a threshold known to suppress foraging activity in this species. Regression analyses further suggest that a 2°C rise in mean summer temperature or a 20% increase in >16°C(%) could lead to population declines exceeding 40%. These findings highlight the high climate sensitivity of the cold-adapted species and underscore the urgency of incorporating thermal vulnerability into river management and conservation planning under future climate scenarios.
Amphibians are highly susceptible to abrupt environmental changes. The objectives of this study were to describe the inter-population thermal ecology and to assess the vulnerability of the stream frog Ptychohyla leonhardschultzei an endemic species of high-altitude cloud forests with a limited and fragmented distribution to climate change, using a correlative and mechanistic approachTo assess the vulnerability of P. leonhardschultzei, we compared the climatic suitability under current conditions across the species’ known distribution with two contrasting future scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585), using a correlative modelling approach. The results for the worst-case scenario from this model were validated using Sinervo´s mechanistic restriction-hours model, which involved the study of the interpopulational thermal ecology of three populations.Our results indicated significant differences in the habitat conditions among the study sites and in the thermal physiology of the populations. For the species, the most frequent environment temperature remained within the selected temperature range (Tset: 18.5 – 21.6°C) and the thermal tolerance range (RTT: 8.94±1.99 -28.78±1.59°C). The optimal locomotor performance (Topt) was 25°C, and the broad thermal performance breadth (B80) ranged from 10°C to 25°C. We observed abrupt declines in mean climatic suitability, which fell to ≤ 58.17% across its entire distribution under all scenarios evaluated by the correlative model. Differences between scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585) ranged from 5.42 to 18.95%, with a mean of only 3.10 hours of activity (Ha) for the worst scenario. Our findings suggest that P. leonhardschultzei may face a high risk of extinction by the year 2100 under the worst scenario, SSP585.
As a result of global climate change, ecosystems are facing increasingly long and intense heat events. While plant species may be able to tolerate, adapt, or shift their ranges in response to climate change, plants in alpine ecosystems are considered especially sensitive to the effects of climate change due to geographic constraints on uphill range expansions. We conducted a novel, in-situ, active warming experiment (under rainy conditions) on alpine plants growing near the summit of Mt Hotham, south-eastern Australia. Contrary to our predictions, we found no relationship between overall change in cover, survival, diversity, or reproductive effort with the intensity or duration of heat events. Additionally, there was no interaction between species’ growth form (i.e., forb, shrub or graminoid) and change in cover in relation to the heat event intensity and duration. Thus, while climate change still poses substantial threats to alpine ecosystems, it is not clear how the intensity or duration of extreme heat events in conjunction with high precipitation might impact alpine communities, or favour particular plant forms. Improving our understanding of which aspects of climate change pose the largest threats to alpine ecosystems remains an important goal that can help us to understand how sensitive plant communities may be affected into the future.
Climate change has significantly impacted butterfly distributions in recent decades, and its influence is expected to increase with ongoing global warming. Future range shifts at the continental scale have been modelled in several recent studies, but very few studies have used high-resolution environmental data to predict butterfly distribution changes at the local and regional scale. We used such data for the first time to model the occurrence probability of the endangered butterfly Brintesia circe under current and future climatic conditions in the federal state of Baden-Württemberg. A total of 364 spatially precise species records were compiled from various sources. Species distribution modelling was conducted with MaxEnt using two types of environmental data: (1) 28 climate variables (1 km × 1 km) for 1991–2020, including projections for 2050 under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5; (2) fine-scale surface data (25 m × 25 m) including a digital elevation model and land-use layers. Under the current climate, areas with high suitably are small and patchy. Key climatic predictors were winter precipitation, maximum winter temperature, and autumn solar radiation, while important land-use variables included the distance to meadows, protected areas, and vineyards. Under both climate scenarios, suitable habitat area increased substantially by 2050. Our results suggest that B. circe in SW Germany could potentially benefit from climate change, if suitable grasslands with the species’ host plant remain available and are well-managed.
River ecosystem discontinuity and connection are of concern in transboundary river basins. Humans have impacted river ecosystems and disconnected the river ecosystem landscapes by building infrastructure and hydropower. Climate change has decreased connectivity. A bulk of studies examine the impacts of climate change and infrastructure development on fragmented river systems, and only a few examine how humans can address these impacts and restore the connectivity of river systems resilient to climate change and hydropower effects. Thus, our study examines 140 community fish refuges (CFRs) in Tonle Sap Lake in restoring river landscape connectivity and building resilient aquatic ecosystems to climate change and changing hydrological regimes. We conclude that the CFR system reconnects the lake tributaries, lake, floodplains, and rice fields. Most CFRs do not dry up in the dry season, providing habitats for fisheries and water for rice fields, increasing fishery and rice farming productivity in waterbodies, floodplains, and rice fields, and improving the livelihoods of local communities.
Climate change poses significant threats to biodiversity and ecosystem services, including bat-mediated pest suppression. This study aims to assess how temperature and precipitation changes may affect bat populations and their role in suppressing pine processionary moth (Thaumetopoea pityocampa) in Serra da Estrela, Portugal. We identified the Top-7 bat species with >10 % pine processionary moth occurrences in their diet, using faecal DNA metabarcoding. Climate model projections (SSP245 and SSP585) were then used to assess impacts on these species and their pest suppression services. We analysed temperature and precipitation anomalies for 2041–2060, 2061–2080 and 2081–2100 to identify areas and species most exposed to climate stress. Our results show that under SSP585, rising temperatures could lead to a complete loss of sites providing bat-mediated pest suppression and associated species richness by 2081–2100, while the worst-case precipitation scenario (SSP585) projects a coverage reduction of up to 87 % by 2061–2080, with a potential total loss of suitable habitat by 2081–2100, highlighting severe local declines in service provision. Riparian and diverse-vegetation zones with high climate anomalies are critical for sustaining bat populations and their pest-suppression capacity. These findings emphasise the urgency of incorporating climate change into conservation planning and adaptive pest-management policies, providing evidence-based guidance for biodiversity conservation as well as forest and agricultural management strategies.
Snakes at northern latitudes can spend over half the year in their overwintering sites to avoid exposure to unsuitable weather conditions. However, with changing weather patterns driven by climate change, we hypothesized that warming winters could reduce the snowpack, thereby diminishing its insulating ability and compromising the stability of overwintering habitat conditions. We collected micrometeorological data from 2018–2024 in 10 peatlands near the northern range limit of the at-risk Eastern Massasauga rattlesnake (Sistrurus catenatus). We quantified suitable overwintering conditions for these peatlands by monitoring the life or resilience zone - the subterranean space above the water table and below the 0°C isotherm that could function as suitable overwintering habitat. We found that winters with warmer temperatures were associated with more favourable resilience zone conditions, while greater snow accumulation was linked to poorer overwintering conditions. However, towards the end of winter in February and March, warmer temperatures were linked to snowmelt, rising water tables, and subsequent resilience zone loss. We also used climate projections under shared socio-economic pathways to model future resilience zone conditions that predicted shallower freezing depths and rising water tables in most peatlands. As a result, some peatlands are expected to support a larger resilience zone while others may face prolonged flooding and reduced quality of overwintering habitat as a result of a diminished resilience zone. Though these variable outcomes suggest that suitable overwintering habitat will remain on the landscape, the implications for habitat currently used by snakes will depend on massasaugas’ tolerance to flooding versus freezing.
Coastal and island ecosystems are disproportionately vulnerable to sea level rise and other impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Using monitoring data collected between 2013 and 2024, we explore habitat changes, population dynamics, and phenology of an endemic butterfly in the Florida Keys, USA, Klots' sawgrass skipper (Euphyes pilatka klotsi. Range-wide surveys of the butterfly were conducted using Distance sampling along transects to repeatedly estimate population size. Host plant and shrub abundance were estimated along these transects in 2013 and 2021. Wilcoxon signed-rank tests were conducted to examine change in plant abundance between our two sampling periods and generalized least square regression models were constructed to understand the relationship between host plant abundance and elevation. Our results show that the butterfly's sole host plant is decreasing in abundance at lower elevations. We also find declines in butterfly population size. Despite these declines, we find that Klots' sawgrass skipper's range has not contracted significantly over the study period.This study demonstrates that monitoring a single taxon and its host plant is useful for monitoring this rare freshwater ecosystem, which is vital for the continued survival of a suite of rare and endemic species found in the Florida Keys. Projections of near-future sea level rise indicate that most or all of this habitat will be lost within several decades; the continued study of low-lying islands is critical to gain insight into the global phenomenon of sea level rise.
Climate change poses a critical global threat, reshaping biodiversity through alterations in species’ morphology, behavior, and distribution. Among the earliest and most sensitive biological responses are shifts in reproductive phenology, which have profound implications for species survival and ecosystem function. Large mammals such as mouflon (Ovis gmelini) are particularly vulnerable due to their ecological importance and limited adaptive capacity, and in Iran's climate-sensitive Zagros Mountains, these populations face additional pressures from habitat loss and poaching, while long-term ecological insights remain scarce. Leveraging over two decades of reproductive and meteorological data from five core habitats, this study quantifies climate-driven shifts in mating and lambing timing using generalized linear mixed models, which identified temperature as the dominant driver. Specifically, a 1°C increase from May to November advanced mating by ∼0.8 days, and a 1°C rise during December–April advanced lambing by ∼1.4 days, with spatial variation evident between the warmest site, Ghamishloo, and the coolest site, Tange Sayad. These findings demonstrate the pronounced sensitivity of Zagros mouflon reproductive cycles to temperature, highlighting reproductive phenology as a robust bioindicator of environmental change. Although no significant overall temporal shifts were detected across the Zagros region, local warming corresponded with measurable shifts in mating timing, reflecting spatial heterogeneity in climate effects. This work bridges critical knowledge gaps in ungulate ecology and provides quantitative evidence to inform conservation strategies for safeguarding biodiversity in Iran’s montane ecosystems under ongoing climate change.
High‐elevation glacierized environments pose extreme nesting challenges for birds, yet the Glacier Finch (Idiopsar speculifer) regularly nests inside ice cavities, but data on active nests and their microclimates remain scarce. We documented these aspects across two breeding seasons (2024–2025) in three sectors on the western side of the Quelccaya Ice Cap, southeastern Peru, above 5300 m asl. We characterized nest structure and composition, parental behavior, and the microclimate within glacier cavities used as nesting sites. We located six nests (four abandoned and two active) and described the structure and composition of three only once they were inactive (one abandoned and the two formerly active). Nests were open-cup structures composed primarily of two high-Andean grass species (Deschampsia ovata and Cinnagrostis nitidula). The active nests were monitored with trail cameras and microclimate sensors. One nest was found in April 2024 and the other in February 2025, the latter representing the earliest breeding record to date, occurring four days before the previously proposed egg-laying period, and the first documented nest built on rock rather than directly on ice. Daily biparental care was observed at one nest, with 8–9 visits per day and no nocturnal activity, whereas the second nest experienced predation by an Andean fox (Lycalopex culpaeus). Glacier cavities acted as thermal buffers, maintaining near-freezing temperatures (∼0°C), high relative humidity (90–100%), and low evaporation rates (0.2 kg m⁻² h⁻¹), providing more stable conditions than outside the cavity. These findings enhance understanding of reproduction in extreme glacierized habitats.
Climate change presents a substantial threat to biodiversity, driving shifts in species distributions both independently and through interactions with land use change. In Canada, 77 % of reptile species are considered at risk, especially near the Canada-U.S. border, where most species are at the northern range limit and where land use changes have been most pronounced. Climate change is expected to impact reptiles in this region, including snakes; however, how it will interact with land use change to affect snake distributions remains uncertain. Here, we used ensemble models, derived from three different SDM models, to investigate the potential effects of climate-land cover/use interactions on the future distribution of range-edge populations of a large threatened colubrid in Canada, Gray ratsnakes (Pantherophis spiloides). We showed climate and land cover/use change have an antagonistic effect on future environmental suitability, with greater net gains in suitability from climate alone (37–85 %) compared to gains from the combined model (35–81 %). Our study revealed that climate change may benefit temperate snakes, like gray ratsnakes, leading to a northward range-edge shift, but land use change may prevent colonization of new areas and persistence in areas of their current range. Our models showed that the Frontenac Arch is projected to be a key region for gray ratsnake persistence under climate change as it will mostly remain suitable due to the forest cover. These findings highlight the need for protection and restoration of habitat to help mitigate the negative effects of climate change for ratsnakes and many other similar species in Canada.
This article analyzes the emergence of the category of nature as a subject of rights and of the rights of Nature as a proposal for the relationship between human beings and the environment in the context of climate crisis. It considers the discourses on sustainability present at different scales (global, within supranational organizations; national, within various states; and regional or local), which have been used as a basis for the recognition of rights to nature. It is evident, through a multi-scale analysis that the rights of Nature emerge as a novel alternative to the structural causes of climate change associated with the relationships between nature and culture; however, there are discursive differences between scales regarding the concept of sustainability. The analysis in specific territorial contexts allows us to evidence sustainability as a language in action that is transformed to enable the implementation of the rights of Nature. Based on this analysis, some proposals are made, taking into consideration the territorial contexts and community experiences that show the importance of recognizing the visions on sustainability of peoples and ethnic communities to implement the rights of Nature.
Elevated anthropogenic CO2 emissions are warming the planet, although our understanding of how climate-related changes manifest locally remains poor. In estuaries, rising air and sea surface temperatures, increased sediment loading, and climate-related changes (e.g., cyclones, heatwaves, droughts) can collectively influence tidal flat biota and the key ecosystem functions they mediate. Here, we used long-term data from six sites in a New Zealand estuary (all sampled quarterly for 22 years) to evaluate tidal flat macroinvertebrate changes and responses of five functional diversity metrics (i.e., Functional Richness, Evenness, Dispersion, Divergence, and Redundancy) to shifting environmental conditions. Sea surface temperature (satellite SST records), sediment organic matter content (OM), and bed sediment muddiness all increased significantly at all sites from 2000 to 2022. The individual effects of these environmental drivers on functional diversity metrics were mixed, but net trends in Functional Richness and Functional Redundancy indicated increasing levels of community resilience over time. Heat spikes can cause thermal stress, but gradual warming may elevate metabolic rates and accelerate reactions such as photosynthesis. The positive effects on increased food supply (OM) could have outweighed negative influences of increasing mud, generating the net trends in our data. Overall, our research suggests that some estuarine soft-sediment macroinvertebrate communities, based on the analysis of functional diversity metrics, are becoming increasingly resilient and adaptable, rather than increasingly depauperate and functionally impacted, as climate change strengthens.
The drivers of population dynamics are a primary interest of ecologists, and predicting the consequences of climate variability on wildlife populations benefits from an understanding of how weather causes variation in the vital rates of populations. Given recent and projected extremes in annual precipitation in the Sierra Nevada of California, USA, including two severe droughts, we sought to examine the role of snowpack and summer water availability on the population dynamics and potential extirpation of a meadow population of the U.S. Endangered Sierra Nevada yellow-legged frog (Rana sierrae) using a long-term capture-mark-recapture dataset. We found that snowpack and summer water availability affected both survival and recruitment probabilities. Although these variables only explained approximately 17 % of the annual variation in adult survival, they explained 81 % of the variation in recruitment into the adult population. Following two severe, extended droughts and a nearby wildfire, the population consisted of 20 or fewer individuals with >95 % certainty, and 10 or fewer individuals with 64 % certainty. If realized, increased precipitation volatility and extended droughts likely present an additional threat to some meadow populations of this endangered frog.
Schistosomiasis is a disease caused by trematode worms and transmitted through specific gastropod snails, namely Bulinus africanus, Bulinus globosus, and Biomphalaria pfeifferi. The distribution of Schistosoma species is influenced by climate factors such as temperature and rainfall. Understanding the impact of climate change on these factors is crucial for predicting changes in schistosomiasis transmission. This study employed bioclimatic variables to forecast the future distribution of these snail species in South Africa, utilising three ecological models alongside three General Circulation Models (GCMs) under two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for the periods 2040–2070 and 2070–2100. The predicted impacts of climate change on Schistosoma-transmitting snails in South Africa indicate a shift in habitat suitability for these intermediate hosts. Bulinus africanus may see a reduction in habitats across several provinces, but could expand into the southwest coast and central Free State. Biomphalaria pfeifferi is expected to encounter decreased suitability in the eastern regions of South Africa but may find new habitats in the Free State, Northern Cape, and western areas. Bulinus globosus is likely to face habitat declines but could adapt to suitable climates in the Free State and KwaZulu-Natal regions. These shifts suggest that warming climates may create new habitats for these snail species at higher elevations and cooler areas. This study established a foundational framework for subsequent research at the provincial and municipal levels. This can be a foundation for developing strategies to prevent transmission and range expansion of schistosomiasis into previously unaffected areas.
Historically, constrained temperature ranges limited the spread of invasive herpetofauna into temperate climates, but climate change is predicted to facilitate broader distributions. There are three species of tegu lizards native to South America and available in the pet trade that have a high risk of invasion and deleterious impacts to native ecosystems in the United States (US). There are four populations of the black and white tegu (Salvator merianae) in Florida and sightings as far north as North Carolina and west as California. Red tegus (S. rufescens) have been observed in Florida, and there is an established population of gold tegus (Tupinambis teguixin) in Florida. We updated previous distribution models for the contiguous United States (CONUS) that used occurrence points from their native range in South America to evaluate potential changes given current and future climate scenarios (+2 °C and +4 °C warming). Under current climate conditions, one or more tegu species have the potential to occupy most ecoregions in the CONUS. Under a + 4 °C warming scenario, suitable habitat increases by 11 % for S. merianae, 31 % for S. rufescens. The proportion of suitable habitat for T. teguixin was small under all scenarios, but increased from 0.0003 to 0.0017. For S. merianae, parts of Florida become less suitable, while suitability increases in this region for the other two species. Additionally, much of the western US is projected to be suitable for S. rufescens. Our case study underscores the potential for climate change to compound invasion threats that could outpace effective managerial responses.
Climate change is expected to change precipitation patterns and increases the risks of agricultural diseases and pests in rice, a staple crop in Southeast Asia. Apple snails are among the most significant threats to rice production, yet their pest potential under future climate scenarios remains poorly understood. In this study, we investigated the survival, growth (changes in shell length and weight), and rice stem consumption comparing between the invasive Pomacea maculata and the native Pila celebensis, under the SSP5–8.5 scenario in Thailand—one of the leading rice producers and exporters in the word. We observed snail survival, growth, and feeding rates across three temperature treatments: ambient temperature (28°C, control), 29.2 °C (+1.2 °C in the next 20 years), and 30.1 °C (+2.1 °C in the next 40 years). Our results revealed that while the survival probability of the native P. celebensis significantly decreased under the increasing temperatures, the invasive P. maculata remained unaffected. Both species exhibited accelerated growth under warm conditions, but only P. maculata shows increased rice consumption over time and with rising temperatures, while P. celebensis maintains a constant feeding rate. These findings suggest that future warming climate could intensify the pest impact of the invasive P. maculata, potentially causing greater damage to rice production, especially in comparison to native P. celebensis. Our study underlines the need for integrative pest management strategies focused on early-stage eradication of invasives snails to mitigate their impact under future climate.
