Forecasting in geopolitical and competitive environments remains highly unreliable despite advances in analytics, machine learning, and predictive modeling. This study argues that many forecasting failures emerge not only from methodological limitations, but from fragmented representations of complex adaptive systems. Using a systematic literature review approach, the paper synthesizes forecasting research across geopolitical conflict, strategic management, signaling theory, and complex systems literature. The findings reveal that existing forecasting models frequently prioritize measurable variables while underrepresenting signaling dynamics, institutional resilience, perception-based interpretation, nonlinear interaction, and recursive feedback processes. In response, the study develops the Adaptive Forecasting Systems Framework (AFSF), which conceptualizes forecasting as a dynamic system-level process shaped by structural capacity, strategic signaling, adaptive interaction, and evolving system dynamics. The study contributes to forecasting and strategic management literature by reframing prediction as an adaptive interpretive process rather than a static estimation exercise. It further demonstrates that geopolitical conflicts and competitive markets share important structural characteristics associated with uncertainty, signaling asymmetry, and feedback-driven system evolution. The paper concludes that forecasting robustness increasingly depends on the ability to interpret evolving interaction structures rather than relying solely on predictive precision.
Introduction: Access to quality emergency obstetric care is essential for maternal and fetal health. However, obstetric emergencies remain a major cause of maternal and fetal morbidity and mortality, particularly in resource-limited settings. Objective: To determine the frequency and maternal-fetal outcomes of obstetric emergencies in 2022 at CHUD Borgou. Method: A cross-sectional observational study with prospective data collection was conducted from January to June 2022 at CHUD Borgou. An exhaustive sampling method was used, covering sociodemographic, clinical, and therapeutic variables, as well as maternal-fetal outcomes. Data analysis was performed using Epi Info and STATA. Ethical guidelines were strictly followed to ensure the integrity of the study. Results: Out of 1,735 admitted women, 919 were referred for obstetric emergencies, representing a frequency of 52.97%. The majority of women were aged 20–29 (52.90%); 44.36% were housewives, 42.94% were married, and 50.16% had a primary level of education. The general condition of 81.38% of the patients was good. The most frequent reasons for referral were dystocia (21.03%), hemorrhage (17.85%), and hypertensive disorders (15.44%). The majority (58.84%) delivered vaginally, with 94.74% of interventions involving uterine exploration. The perinatal outcome was marked by a 14.06% mortality rate, and the maternal outcome by a 4.05% mortality rate. Conclusion: Targeted interventions are needed to improve the management of obstetric emergencies and reduce maternal morbidity and mortality.
Dans la commune Makiso à Kisangani, les eaux de puits et de forages sont largement utilisées pour satisfaire les besoins en eau de consommation des populations. La présente étude vise à évaluer la qualité microbiologique de ces eaux destinées à la consommation humaine durant la saison pluvieuse. Cinq (5) puits et cinq (5) forages ont été sélectionnés et échantillonnés au cours de trois campagnes d’échantillonnage réalisées uniquement pendant la saison pluvieuse, soit un total de trente (30) échantillons analysés. Les analyses microbiologiques ont porté sur la recherche des coliformes totaux, coliformes fécaux, Escherichia coli, streptocoques fécaux, Salmonella/Shigella et germes totaux par la méthode d’ensemencement en profondeur. Les résultats obtenus ont montré une absence totale d’Escherichia coli et de streptocoques fécaux dans l’ensemble des échantillons analysés, indiquant une conformité de 100 % par rapport aux recommandations de l’Organisation Mondiale de la Santé (OMS). En revanche, une forte contamination par les germes totaux a été observée avec une absence totale de conformité dans les puits et les forages. Les coliformes totaux étaient présents dans la majorité des échantillons avec seulement 13,33 % de conformité. Les coliformes fécaux présentaient des taux de conformité variant entre 40 % et 66,66 %, tandis que Salmonella spp. a été détecté à faible concentration dans certains échantillons, avec des taux de conformité de 73,33 % dans les puits et 93,33 % dans les forages. Malgré l’absence d’Escherichia coli et de streptocoques fécaux, les eaux étudiées demeurent globalement impropres à la consommation humaine en raison de la forte contamination microbiologique observée. Un traitement préalable avant consommation, notamment par chauffage ou désinfection, apparaît nécessaire afin de garantir la sécurité sanitaire des consommateurs. In Makiso Municipality, Kisangani, well and borehole water are widely used to meet the drinking water needs of the population. The present study aimed to assess the microbiological quality of these waters intended for human consumption during the rainy season. Five (5) wells and five (5) boreholes were selected and sampled during three sampling campaigns conducted exclusively in the rainy season, giving a total of thirty (30) analyzed samples. Microbiological analyses focused on the detection of total coliforms, fecal coliforms, Escherichia coli, fecal streptococci, Salmonella spp., and total bacterial counts using the pour plate method. The results showed a complete absence of Escherichia coli and fecal streptococci in all analyzed samples, Indicating 100% compliance with the World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines. On the other hand, high contamination by total germs was observed with a total lack of compliance in the wells and boreholes. Total coliforms were present in most samples, with only 13.33% compliance. Fecal coliforms showed compliance rates ranging from 40% to 66.66%, while Salmonella spp. was detected at low concentrations in some samples, with compliance rates of 73.33% in wells and 93.33% in boreholes. Despite the absence of Escherichia coli and fecal streptococci, the studied waters remain globally unsuitable for human consumption due to the high microbiological contamination observed. Preliminary treatment before consumption, particularly through boiling or disinfection, appears necessary to ensure consumer health safety.
Adapted microcredit represents both a challenge and an important factor in improving the profitability indicators of the maize sector. This study analyzes the effect of microcredit on the economic performance of maize farms in the communes of Tchaourou, Parakou and N'Dali. Data were collected from 372 maize producers to highlight the socioeconomic characteristics of farmers, the modalities of credit granting as well as the effect of microcredit on the performance indicators of the sector. This data was collected using a digitized questionnaire on Kobotoolbox and analyzed with the Stata 17 software. Descriptive statistics and margin calculation methodology were used supported by the anova test and the student's t-test. It appears that access to credit remains limited and unevenly distributed among the municipalities, with predominant recourse to microfinance institutions in Parakou and tontines in Tchaourou. The majority of loans are granted during the agricultural season, which reduces their effectiveness. Production is profitable from a net margin point of view overall with an internal profitability rate of 0.46 and a Profit-Cost Ratio of 1.72. The performance of the beneficiaries of the loan is lower than that of the non-beneficiaries. This paradox underscores that lagging agricultural credit is becoming a burden rather than a tool for development. There is a need to adapt microfinance schemes to agricultural cycles, producer profiles, and local realities, while strengthening technical supervision and credit management training.
Cultural tourism offers Georgia a strategic opportunity to advance the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth) and SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities). This study aims to identify how cultural tourism can become a financial driver for inclusive growth in Georgia's regions. The research employs a mixed-methods approach, combining quantitative and qualitative analysis. Quantitative data (2015–2024) were obtained from Geostat, the Georgian National Tourism Administration, the World Bank, and ENPARD reports to analyze revenue trends and investment levels. Qualitative data were collected through seven (n=7) in-depth semi-structured interviews with experts from the banking sector, international organizations, and small and medium-sized enterprises in the tourism industry to identify systemic financial barriers. Additionally, a comparative case study was conducted in Mtskheta and Svaneti to assess the activation of economic resources and local community participation. The findings confirm that cultural tourism in Georgia could generate an additional $100–150 million in annual revenue with the support of sustainable infrastructure and local entrepreneurship. The example of Mtskheta demonstrates a successful public-private partnership (PPP) model, where local participation increased the share of local revenues to 45%. In contrast, an analysis of Svaneti shows that, despite high demand, growth is constrained by a lack of infrastructure and limited access to financing: only 32% of local entrepreneurs utilize international grants. The study recommends the creation of regional tourism development funds and decentralized governance with local participation to ensure equitable revenue distribution and the long-term sustainability of Georgian tourism.
Collaborative learning has increasingly been recognized as a student-centered pedagogical approach that enhances learner interaction, engagement, and communicative competence in English language education. This study investigates the impact of student-centered collaborative learning on English language achievement among Macedonian high school students. The research involved secondary school students and English language teachers and employed questionnaires, classroom observations, and achievement tests as data collection instruments. Quantitative data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and paired-sample t-tests to examine learning gains, while qualitative data provided additional insights into participants’ perceptions. The findings indicate that collaborative learning activities contributed to improvements in students’ vocabulary development, speaking fluency, and overall engagement in English classes. These results suggest that collaborative learning can serve as an effective instructional approach in secondary EFL contexts.
Background: Septorhinoplasty aims to address both aesthetic and functional nasal concerns, and its impact may extend across multiple dimensions of daily living. This study evaluated the functional, psychosocial, and quality-of-life effects of septorhinoplasty using validated patient-reported outcome measures. Methods: A prospective single-centre cohort design was employed. Descriptive statistics (means and standard deviations) were calculated. The Wilcoxon matched-pairs test was used to assess the differences between pre- and postoperative outcomes, and the Spearman rank correlation test evaluated the associations between functional improvement and psychosocial outcomes. A priori sample size estimation supported adequate statistical power (power >95%, α <0.05). A total of 150 patients completed the NOSE questionnaire, the Stress Assessment Questionnaire, and the WHOQOL-BREF preoperatively and at the six-month follow-up. Statistical analyses were performed using SPSS software. Results: Postoperative evaluations demonstrated clinically and statistically significant improvements in nasal function (NOSE scores, p<0.001). Psychological outcomes showed notable enhancements in self-esteem and reductions in stress-related symptoms (Z=8.44, p<0.001). WHOQOL-BREF revealed significant gains in physical, psychological, and social domains (all p<0.001). Greater functional improvement was moderately associated with better psychological and social outcomes (r=0.5, p<0.05). Conclusion: Septorhinoplasty significantly improves not only nasal airflow and facial satisfaction but also multiple dimensions of health-related quality of life, including sleep, energy, social confidence, and psychological well-being. Although limited by its single-centre design and absence of long-term follow-up, these findings highlight the broader functional and psychosocial relevance of septorhinoplasty beyond cosmetic correction.
In the context of Morocco's advanced regionalization reforms, municipalities struggle to access evaluation tools adapted to the complexity of their responsibilities. This article presents the Generalizable Financial Analysis Model (MAFG), a methodological and operational framework designed to assess the financial performance of Moroccan local authorities. Developed through a participatory and iterative process conducted with municipalities in the provinces of Zagora and Midelt, the MAFG is structured around five interdependent dimensions - solvency and financial autonomy, expenditure efficiency and budgetary governance, economic and social impacts, ecological transition, and cost-benefit analysis of major investment projects-incorporating 95 qualitative and quantitative indicators. The results of the design and pre-operationalization phase reveal three major structural findings: an excessive dependence on State VAT transfers (accounting for up to 88% of revenues in certain municipalities), an under-exploitation of fiscal potential linked to natural resources and major investment projects, and persistent inefficiencies in budget execution, particularly in the social and environmental sectors. Based on these findings, this study proposes a composite scoring model that combines a conceptual framework, an evaluation grid, and a strategic dashboard to support multidimensional decision-making, featuring a summary score for each axis, dynamic monitoring, and operational budget management — all grounded in the specific characteristics of Moroccan municipalities and incorporating GPI in an innovative way.
Students with special needs (SSNs) have been slowly but significantly increasing in higher educational institutions (HEIs) of Bangladesh in recent years. Though their inclusion is generally welcomed by university authorities, a significant gap remains in both faculty capacity and curriculum inclusivity. SSNs often receive few accommodations from HEIs, such as assistance from a reader during examinations, extended time (usually 30 minutes), ramps for physical access, or limited library resources, such as braille materials or text-to-speech software, which are far from sufficient. The curriculum followed in most universities is designed primarily for students without disabilities, which puts SSNs at a disadvantage, as they might struggle to compete on equal terms and are unable to demonstrate their true potential under standard teaching and assessment methods. To address this gap, SSNs should be offered optional subjects aligned with their interests and strengths. Such alternatives could improve their motivation and academic performance. This case study-based research explored how three students with special needs improved their academic grades when they were allowed to substitute two of their regular curriculum courses, which they found difficult due to their specific challenges, with two supportive and interest-based courses. Additionally, 30 SSNs were interviewed to determine which electives they would like to be included in the curriculum. Findings suggest that a dedicated pool of electives, designed and offered exclusively for SSNs with appropriate instructional and infrastructural support, can have a significant positive impact. The present study proposed a need-based curriculum design (NBCD) model to foster genuine inclusiveness within HEIs.
Background: Laboratory Quality Improvement Process Towards Accreditation (SLIPTA) is an assessment checklist proposed by WHO for baseline assessment, supervision, monitoring, and evaluation of medical laboratory progress towards accreditation. Objectives: Strengthen the quality management system (QMS) of the medical laboratories in health facilities across Togo. Methods: A pool of auditors and mentors was trained on the WHO SLIPTA and Laboratory Quality Stepwise Implementation tools. After baseline assessment in 86 labs, 35 of them with zero stars were selected and supported by the mentorship program. The impact of the program was evaluated after 6 months (follow-up I), and the sustainability was measured after 12 months (follow-up II) and 18 months (follow-up III). Results: Baseline scores ranged from 11-83% with an average of 32%. Over 90% of the labs had zero stars, and 1.2%, 2.3%, and 5.1% got one star, two stars, and three stars, respectively. A significant impact of the program was observed at the follow-up I assessment by an increased average SLIPTA score from 27.8% to 53.4%. Among 35 labs mentored, 45.7% got one star and 8.6% got two stars. The sustainability of the program was shown by an increase in the score from 53.4% to 58.2% between follow-up I and follow-up II and a slight decrease from 58.2% to 56.1% between follow-up II and follow-up III. Conclusion: This mentorship program remains an excellent approach used to help Togo medical labs improve their QMS.
This study aims to improve our understanding of groundwater resources in the Boundiali department to meet the ever-growing needs of the population. The study's primary goal is to identify areas with the potential for high-rate borehole installation. The database includes satellite images, borehole data, and hydro-climatic data. Using the hierarchical analytical process method to combine these different types of information made it possible to generate indicators of groundwater availability, accessibility and exploitability. These indicators were then used as criteria and integrated using the coding aggregation method to produce the groundwater potential map. The results show that over half (60%) of the territory has good or excellent groundwater availability. The exploitability and accessibility of this resource are estimated to be 30% and 53% good and excellent, respectively. Analysis of the groundwater potential map derived from these indicators shows that 61% of the study area is suitable for installing high-rate boreholes. This study is a significant step towards solving the drinking water problem in this department, where no advanced hydrogeological studies are available.
This study highlights the various perspectives expressed by internally displaced migrants during both formal and informal encounters, with the aim of understanding the issues related to their ethnic groupings and interactions outside the mutual aid framework in the urban setting of Bukavu. The use of direct observation, document analysis, semi-structured and open-ended interviews, as well as “snowball” sampling among sixty-five internally displaced persons, yielded the following results: the narratives of internally displaced persons during official meetings focus on acts of mutual aid and solidarity in the city. Others highlight discussions on preserving traditional unity and cultural values that are currently disappearing. Finally, the discussions focus on strengthening cultural capacities and revitalizing ancestral values in the urban host community. Regarding the conversations shared during informal gatherings, internally displaced persons discuss traditional values within their families. At their workplaces and in shops, they discuss topics related to politics, economic and religious activities, public health, and environmental protection. Their desire to stay constantly connected allows them to engage in discussions on social media by creating WhatsApp groups in the city of Bukavu.
The rapid integration of artificial intelligence (AI) into domains involving ethical judgment has generated renewed concern about the status of human moral agency. While much of the existing literature focuses either on technical optimization or normative prescriptions, fewer studies empirically investigate how human subjects themselves perceive moral responsibility under algorithmic mediation. This article presents an empirical–theoretical analysis of moral ambivalence in the age of AI, drawing on survey data (N = 146) collected among university students. The findings suggest that contemporary subjects neither fully reject nor uncritically accept AI as a moral authority. Instead, they occupy an intermediate position characterized by ethical ambivalence: technical efficiency increasingly competes with empathy, contextual judgment, and personal responsibility. We argue that this condition gives rise to a “residual moral subject,” whose agency is not eliminated but progressively reshaped under algorithmic governance.
This article examines the pedagogical practices of university lecturers in higher education in Congo-Brazzaville through the lens of Max Weber’s ethics of responsibility. Using a qualitative approach based on semi-structured interviews and document analysis, it explores how this ethical framework operates in a context characterized by rapid enrollment expansion and institutional constraints. The findings indicate that integrating an ethics of responsibility into teaching practices enhances student engagement, fosters intellectual autonomy, and supports social integration. However, these positive effects remain constrained by limited resources, heavy workloads, and fragile institutional frameworks. The article argues for a reconfiguration of university pedagogy that balances scientific rigor, social responsibility, and contextual relevance.
This study analyzes the dynamics of tourist traffic to the Dimba Cave in the Democratic Republic of Congo, combining an assessment of the period 2021–2025 with rigorous projections to 2035. The site, although on UNESCO’s Tentative List since 1997, suffers from a major paradox: exceptional heritage and biological value (notably the habitat of the blind fish Caecobarbus geertsii) is juxtaposed with severe environmental degradation and persistent administrative inertia. A systems approach was used to distinguish the “cryptic system” (underground ecosystem) from the “anthropogenic system” (human actors). Multidimensional statistical analyses (MFA, PCA, MCA) and Spearman’s rank correlation were used to assess the interactions between tourist profiles and their perception of the site. The results show a gradual decline in tourist numbers (from 156 visitors in 2021 to 125 in 2025) and a perception of significant degradation by 94.2% of respondents in 2024. Site governance is considered very weak, with rehabilitation initiatives not yet implemented. Without corrective measures, projections indicate a significant decrease in visitor numbers and an intensification of environmental pressures by 2035. The study proposes a sustainable development model based on tripartite zoning (full protection, tourism, afforestation) and a transition to shared, community-based governance, involving local populations, as a prerequisite for effective UNESCO World Heritage status.
Diabetes mellitus is recognized as a chronic disease closely linked to an individual’s lifestyle. Objective: To identify the lifestyle patterns of adults with diabetes mellitus. Methodology: A cross-sectional, descriptive, exploratory study. The IMEVID lifestyle questionnaire for people with diabetes mellitus was administered, covering seven dimensions—nutrition, physical activity, tobacco use, alcohol consumption, diabetes knowledge, emotions, and treatment adherence—across 25 questions, with a reliability coefficient of 0.81. Participants were recruited through a social media platform, including adults of both sexes regardless of time since diagnosis; the questionnaire was administered using Google Forms using a random sampling method. A pilot study was conducted before final data collection. The data were analyzed using SPSS v.25 software. The ethical considerations outlined in the General Health Law, the Declaration of Helsinki, and the Nuremberg Code were observed. Results: 71% of the participants were women. The mean age was 49.79 years (SD 14.3). 5.9% of the participants reported that they do not treat their diabetes with medication. 44% of the participants had an unhealthy lifestyle, and 41% had a moderate lifestyle. Tobacco use and accessing/seeking information about the disease were among the most significantly altered dimensions. Conclusions: People with diabetes need to adopt healthy lifestyles that promote effective management of the disease and help prevent complications.
This article examines how institutional, organizational, and care-related factors shape women’s access to leadership positions and career trajectories in Georgia and the United States. Its objective is to identify the principal mechanisms that facilitate or constrain women’s progression from education and labour-market entry to managerial and senior leadership positions and to compare how these mechanisms operate across two distinct national contexts. The study uses a qualitative comparative literature review and policy analysis. It primarily draws on peer-reviewed research, official statistics, and institutional reports published between 2020 and 2026, while selected foundational theoretical works and historical evidence are used to contextualize developments across the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. The analysis is organized around five interrelated dimensions: organizational culture and promotion practices, caregiving responsibilities, flexible work arrangements, intersectional inequalities, and structural access to career-development opportunities. The findings indicate that women’s limited representation in leadership cannot be explained by insufficient qualifications or ambition. In the United States, measurable progress in senior leadership coexists with persistent barriers at the first promotion into management, unequal access to sponsorship, motherhood-related penalties, and racialized inequalities. In Georgia, formal gender equality and high levels of female educational participation coexist with unpaid care burdens, occupational segregation, regional disparities, limited care infrastructure, and enduring patriarchal expectations. Across both contexts, flexible and hybrid work may support employment continuity, but they may also weaken visibility, sponsorship, and promotion opportunities when performance evaluation and career-development systems are not transparent. The article concludes that sustainable leadership equality requires institutional reforms, including transparent promotion criteria, accessible care services, gender-responsive labour policies, sponsorship systems, pay transparency, and protection against flexibility-related stigma.
Analyzing the rationality of entrepreneurs in Kasaï Oriental in the face of the challenge of economic diversification is a major issue in terms of poverty reduction and economic development in this region. It should be noted that, due to its heavy reliance on mining—specifically the extraction of diamonds, a finite natural resource exported in its raw state—the economy of Kasai Oriental Province has struggled to find a path toward stable, self-sustaining economic growth. In general, the study aims to analyze the decision-making logic of entrepreneurs in Kasaï Oriental in the face of the challenge of economic diversification. The study employed an approach focused on in-depth individual interviews, multivariate principal component analysis (PCA), and triangulation through the study of specific cases. The interviews were conducted with key stakeholders and resource persons in the province of Kasaï Oriental. Aimed at identifying the causes of the absence of a viable entrepreneurial ecosystem capable of driving economic diversification in the province, these interviews identified thirteen (13) variables that were investigated in a sample of 133 respondents selected through purposive sampling. This study finds that the business strategies of entrepreneurs in Kasaï Oriental are not conducive to driving economic diversification in their region. The triangulation performed in the content analysis of qualitative information and secondary data from specific cases has amply demonstrated this finding. Furthermore, the results of the principal component analysis — whose tests were verified: determination coefficient of the correlation matrix = 0.042; Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin = 0.5; Bartlett’s test = 0.000— corroborated this finding.
Population migration is highly dependent on the quantity and quality of water available and easily exploitable to meet water needs. This study aims to identify the relationship between groundwater dynamics and land use, in view of getting a better control over urbanization. The specific objectives assigned were to distinguish different types of aquifers, identify the direction of groundwater flow, and analyse land use over time. The material required to carry out this study consists of technical data sheets from borehole drilling and satellite images, with specialized software installed into computer. The classification of aquifer types was based on the depth of the first water table and the structure of its surrounding environment. The direction of flow was identified by drawing up a piezometric map showing the first water inflows into the fissured horizons. The aquifers exploited in the Sinématiali area can be classified as weathered materials (57%), fractured horizons (30%), and deep hydraulically active fractures (13%). Water infiltration into the shallow aquifers occurs through fractures with a preferential direction of N45. Into fissured layers and deep fractures, groundwater flows toward the surface waterbed. This explains why boreholes located along the underground flow path have delivered great yields to supply drinking water to people living on the ground. From 1998 to 2022, the part of human settlements reflecting urban reality increased significantly in areas where groundwater is available and moves to accumulate in fissured layers represented through 2D and 3D views. The results of this study are likely to provide better guidance for rapid urbanization and, above all, optimize the management of available and exploitable water resources.
Carbonate reservoirs are globally known to exhibit commercial hydrocarbon reserves and probable underground storage for carbon dioxide and hydrogen; conversely, uncertainty and error analysis are often overlooked in quantitative log interpretation and the estimation of petrophysical parameters due to the complexity and heterogeneity of subsurface formations. Traditional methods often fall short in addressing such structural intricacy, making it challenging to accurately predict the properties of carbonate reservoirs and infer their potential, as this study aims to predict carbonate reservoir properties using existing petrophysical and reservoir modelling data, which were simulated to generate various cross-plots for interpretation. The analysed cross-plots (Figures 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, and 9) indicate the presence of a dolomitized limestone reef carbonate reservoir. In contrast, the illustrations (Figures 3, 5, 7, and 8) highlight coral and algae, chalky, mudstone sediments characterised as kerogen-rich hydrocarbon, dominantly oil-gas prone, filled with brine (Figures 5, 6, 8, 10, 11, 12, 13, and 14). These are dominated by moldic, vuggy, or karstic porosity. The selected reservoirs of Mala oil field exhibit good characteristics: moldic-vuggy to karstic porosity and partially weathered, dolomitized limestone lithofacies, indicative of reef-associated carbonate systems. These properties not only support their classification as high-quality (Figure 7) reefal carbonate reservoirs but also suggest their suitability for future carbon dioxide (CO₂) and hydrogen underground storage due to their adequate pore space and potential for long-term seal suppression.
