Parental employment shocks have been widely studied globally but remain underexplored in Vietnam. This study provides the first evidence on how employment shocks experienced by household heads influence children's labor market outcomes in the country. We distinguish between two types of shocks, unemployment and inactivity, and examine their effects across age groups (adolescents versus adult children), family structures (dual-parent versus single-parent households), and forms of children's labor force participation (employment, self-employment, and unemployment). Focusing on the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, we find that employment shocks experienced by household-headed fathers are positively associated with children's transitions from inactivity to labor force participation in certain specifications. In contrast, employment shocks affecting household-headed mothers show no significant effects for daughters, but are significantly associated with some forms of sons' labor force participation.
Pairing assistance, as a typical form of horizontal transfer payments in China, serves as an important policy instrument for enhancing the economic development of underdeveloped regions, particularly in improving the level of healthcare service provision. This study analyzes the healthcare performance of pairing assistance using city-level panel data from 2004 to 2017 and a difference-in-differences (DID) approach. We find that pairing assistance has not significantly improved the level of healthcare service provision. It arises from its dual impact: while pairing assistance increases the financial resources available to recipients, it also intensifies their expenditure preference for 'prioritizing infrastructure construction over services', to a greater extent. As a result, the level of healthcare service provision is finally reduced. Additionally, establishing a scientifically matched pairing relationship is more effective in enhancing the level of healthcare service provision than simply emphasizing the donor's level of development.
Against worsening global climate change, growing climate risk uncertainty severely challenges firms' capital activities. This paper theoretically analyzes climate risk's effect on corporate debt maturity mismatch (CDM), its mechanisms and heterogeneity. Based on 2007-2022 China's A-share panel data and two-way fixed effects models, empirical results show one standard deviation higher climate risk lifts CDM by 6.9%, verified robust by endogeneity test, double machine learning, system GMM and alternative variable controls. Mechanism analysis suggests that climate risk exacerbates maturity mismatch by tightening financing channels, increasing operational uncertainty, and stimulating environmental investment. This adverse effect is more pronounced among higher degree of bank-enterprise ties, firms with weaker environmental disclosure, and those outside heavily polluting industries. Notably, both formal and informal institutions play a mitigating role, helping reduce CDM when facing higher climate risks.
Despite the increasing frequency and severity of natural disasters, their macroeconomic impact remains debated in the economic literature. Therefore, this study re-examines the macroeconomic costs of natural disasters by assessing their impact on both overall and sector-specific growth across four major disaster types in the short- to medium-term. Drawing on panel data of Lower Middle-Income Countries (LMCs) for the period 1980-2024, this study employed a twofold empirical strategy: the system GMM to estimate the short-term growth effects while controlling for endogeneity, and an event study approach to capture the adjustment process of economic growth following large natural disasters. The findings reveal that natural disasters, regardless of type, tend to exert short-term adverse effects on economic activity, particularly in agricultural sector. However, considerable heterogeneity exists in the medium-term recovery patterns. Due to limited resilience capacity, one-fourth of these countries remain below pre-disaster growth levels, even five years after severe events.
Remote mountain areas face unique challenges, such as inaccessibility, environmental fragility and marginality and expose mountain communities to heightened vulnerability, and topography-based poverty. These challenges are distinct from non-mountain areas. Despite these differences, poverty measurements often treat the Himalayan Mountain regions as similar to other parts of India, overlooking their distinct spatial characteristics. Incorporating spatial dataset, along with the National Family and Health Survey- 5 dataset, we have found an increasing rate of deprivation with an increasing rate of elevation. The study reveals that the Indian Himalayan Region exhibits greater poverty, as compared to its lower counter parts. Additionally, the study establishes a strong association between multidimensional deprivation and elevation groups. Further, a more in-depth investigation reveals that high mountain areas experience higher poverty rates, as compared to lower mountain regions of India. More importantly, our study has identified elevated terrains as 'hotspots' of poverty.
This paper takes local government debt governance (LGDG) as an exogenous shock and uses the intensity difference-in-differences model to analyze the heterogeneous impacts of this policy's dual dimensions-scale control and structural optimization-on the risk premium of urban investment bonds (UIBs). Results indicate a notable 'inversion' in the credit spread of UIBs post-LGDG. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the scale control significantly influences the risk premium in low-rated UIBs, whereas the structural optimization proves more pronounced in high-rated UIBs. The impact of these two dimensions on the risk premium is significant in the eastern region, low-administrative-level regions, high fiscal transparency, and low-default bonds. Mechanism analysis reveals that the scale control impacts UIB pricing by diminishing local governments' financing capabilities. The structural optimization reduces the credit spread by enhancing governments' bargaining power during the underwriting process. The findings are vital for reducing expectations of implicit guarantees and mitigating government debt risks.
This paper investigates the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on the domestic value-added ratio (DVAR) of Chinese firms' green product exports. Utilizing highly detailed microdata from the China Customs Trade Statistics Database, CSMAR Database, and iFind Database (2000-2016), we employ a difference-in-differences (DID) method to identify the causal effect and underlying mechanisms. Our findings reveal that: (i) BRI participation leads to a significant average increase of 0.076 in DVAR for firms' green product exports; (ii) This increase is primarily driven by enhanced green technological innovation, improved green credit support, and strengthened firms' ESG performance; (iii) The BRI's effect is particularly pronounced for firms with higher financing constraints and those in less marketized regions. This paper enriches the research on assessing the trade and environmental effects of the BRI from a micro-firm perspective, offering valuable insights for enhancing firms' capacity in green value-added creation.
The incidence of social crime affects economic growth and social fabric in a democratic country like India. Based on this understanding, this study endeavours to examine the role of financial inclusion (FI) in reducing social crime, specifically crime against women and Scheduled Castes (SCs), across 25 states of India during 2001-2024. Using six diverse indicators of FI and applying the principal component analysis method, this study constructs a single composite index of FI across the Indian states. By utilizing the Feasible Generalized Least Squares and the Panel-Corrected Standard Errors methods, this study reveals that FI reduces crime against women and SCs. These findings indicate that FI brings more economic empowerment and bargaining power among women and SCs in society, which helps to reduce crime against them. The results from the control variables reveal that road length, literacy rate, and unemployment reduce social crime, while social sector expenditure deepens social crime.
This study reexamines exchange rate pass-through to prices using a state-dependent framework that allows the effects of exchange rate movements to vary asymmetrically across different regimes of exchange rate uncertainty. Empirical evidence for India reveals pronounced asymmetry in exchange rate pass-through. A 10% nominal depreciation above an upper threshold is associated with a price increase of approximately 3.37%, while a comparable real depreciation leads to a price increase of about 4.38%. Moreover, the coefficients on large nominal and real depreciations are negative and statistically significant across regimes, indicating that once depreciation exceeds a critical magnitude, its inflationary effect becomes regime-invariant. These findings remain robust across alternative measures of exchange rate volatility and econometric methodologies. This evidence suggests that successful anchoring of inflation depends on exchange rate stability, underscoring the importance of strategic exchange rate interventions as a complement to other conventional monetary policy measures that aim at price stability.
Against the backdrop of China's new economic development goals, by integrating data from Chinese prefecture-level cities and listed companies, we define and quantify the urban economic growth momentum (EGM) levels of 285 cities from 2009 to 2021, assessing the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on urban EGM. The results show that, first, the BRI significantly improves the EGM of node cities, thus fostering high-quality urban economic development. Second, mechanism analysis reveals that the policy effects stem from the cities' upgraded industrial structures, expanded market scale and improved innovation capacity. Third, heterogeneity analysis reveals that the policy impact is more significant in cities with greater importance within trade networks and higher digital finance development levels. Moreover, the BRI exhibits a pronounced Matthew effect, exerting a greater positive impact on the EGM of economically larger and central cities. Finally, the BRI exhibits a pronounced spatial spillover effect, significantly boosting the EGM of cities adjacent to node cities. This study offers new pathway options for regions pursuing high-quality economic growth.
This study investigates the employment effects of strengthened court enforcement in China's bankruptcy system. Exploiting the staggered establishment of specialized bankruptcy tribunals as a quasi-natural experiment, we apply a difference-in-differences approach to data from A-share listed firms from 2010 to 2022. The results show that the reform significantly raises corporate employment, with stronger effects for firms facing tighter financial constraints, holding greater collateral assets, and operating in provinces with stronger judicial environments. Mechanism analysis suggests that court specialization is associated with more active bankruptcy enforcement and is consistent with improved access to external finance, a shift toward longer-term debt, and the release and reallocation of resources from zombie firms. At the macro level, city-level analysis confirms that overall employment increases, implying positive spillovers for local labor markets through improved resource reallocation. Together, the findings underscore the importance of judicial capacity in shaping labor demand and resource allocation in emerging economies.
As China accelerates automation, the rapid expansion of industrial robots has raised growing concerns about employment restructuring. Using provincial panel data from 2010 to 2019 and a dynamic GMM approach, this paper evaluates how industrial robots influence employment scale, employment structure, and industrial structure. The results show that industrial robots significantly reduce overall employment, indicating substitution effects. Low-skilled employment increases briefly in the early stages of automation due to productivity gains and the creation of auxiliary tasks, but declines as automation deepens. Medium-skilled workers who perform more standardized, routine tasks face greater displacement risks. In contrast, high-skilled employment grows steadily through technological complementarities. At the industrial level, robots continue to compress employment in the primary and secondary sectors, while the tertiary sector absorbs displaced labor as industrial linkages strengthen. The paper recommends a gradual policy strategy that enhances skills, promotes industrial upgrading, and improves social protection to support inclusive and sustainable employment transitions.
Eradicating poverty requires addressing material deprivation and enhancing the self-development capacity of poor populations. Grounded in Sen's capability approach, this study uses data from the China family panel studies. It applies a difference-in-differences framework to estimate the causal effects of China's Targeted Poverty Alleviation (TPA) policy on cognitive ability. The results show that: (1) the TPA policy improves crystallized intelligence and fluid intelligence among poor households, and these findings remain robust across a battery of checks; (2) the policy effects exhibit pronounced heterogeneous policy effects; and (3) mediation analyses provide suggestive evidence that the estimated policy effects are associated with improvements in health, educational investment, and employment opportunities. By treating adult cognitive ability as a key indicator of the long-term policy effectiveness of anti-poverty interventions, this study demonstrates how a comprehensive policy package can achieve capability expansion.
The development of digitalization has transformed the behavioral patterns of residents to engage in tourism but no scholarly consensus has been reached on whether and how digitalization promotes the increase of household tourism intention and consumption. Based on data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) spanning 2012-2020, this study systematically examines the relationship between digitalization, household tourism intention and tourism consumption. The findings reveal a significant positive correlation between digitalization and household tourism intention, as well as a notable promotional effect on tourism consumption. Mechanism analysis further indicates that digitalization fosters tourism intention and consumption through improved income quality. Moreover, household information accessibility positively moderates the relationship between digitalization and both tourism intention and consumption. Overall, the results underscore the potential for policymakers and tourism managers to leverage digital tools in stimulating local tourism.
Breakthrough innovation (BI) drives the overcoming of technological bottlenecks and enhances economic resilience. Market integration (MI) reshapes firms' innovation paths by intensifying competition, fostering collaboration, and optimizing resource allocation. While prior studies examine the impact of market integration on general innovation, research on strategically valuable BI remains limited. Using China's Negative List for Market Access as a quasi-natural experiment and data from publicly listed firms, this study finds that MI promotes BI. Mechanism analysis indicates the policy works by increasing competition, enhancing collaboration, and reducing resource misallocation. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the effect is stronger for mature firms, in talent-dense regions, areas with strong intellectual property protection, and boundary cities. These findings advance understanding of MI and high-quality innovation and offer policy insights for optimizing innovation strategies.
Remittance income accounts for a significant share of household income in Thailand. This study examines its impact on household expenditure patterns using data from the Household Socio-Economic Survey (2009-2023) and applies an instrumental variable approach to address endogeneity. The findings confirm that remittances increase spending on education and healthcare. However, they also lead to higher unproductive consumption, particularly lottery and gambling expenditures among recipient households. Spending patterns vary by gender and living area. Female-headed households allocate more to education and less to alcohol and tobacco than male-headed households. Meanwhile, municipal households receiving remittances spend more on alcohol, tobacco, lottery, and gambling than non-municipal households. These findings suggest that the Thai government should promote the productive use of remittances by supporting financial literacy programs, strengthening the regulation of gambling activities, promoting remittance-linked savings and education-focused financial products, and empowering women as financial decision-makers to enhance long-term economic development.
The concept of gender inequality affects the achievement of gender equality by limiting opportunities for women in education, employment, political participation. In the process of promoting gender equality, improving the concept of gender equality is an important direction. This paper empirically examines the impact of trade openness on the concept of gender equality and its theoretical mechanisms by using worldwide data during 1999-2021. We discover that countries with greater trade openness have more equal gender concepts. Reducing gender disparities and increasing women's participation and influence in economic, education, and political spheres are important mechanisms through which trade openness contributes to the development of gender equality concept in society. In addition, the impact of trade openness varies by gender, age, marital status, education level, employment status, and region. This paper enriches research on the formation of gender equality concept and provides a reference for public policies to improve the gender equality concept.
