Peri-urban territories that integrate forests and agroecosystems are critical providers of hydrological ecosystem services, yet they face increasing pressures from urban expansion, ecological degradation, and climate variability. However, substantial knowledge gaps persist on whether direct incentive-based conservation programs in these contexts effectively sustain hydrological ecosystem services beyond curbing land-use change and forest loss across enrolled forest and agricultural parcels. This study evaluates the environmental-induced effects of the Altépetl Bienestar Program in Mexico City's Conservation Land, a peri-urban socio-ecological system which plays a key role in metropolitan hydrological regulation. The analysis combined a 25-year land-use and land-cover analysis (1999–2024), spatial econometric modeling of deforestation drivers, and InVEST-based modeling of four related hydrological ecosystem services indicators, including water yield, soil retention, and flow regulation (i.e. baseflow and quick flow). A quasi-experimental approach integrating Propensity Score Matching and Difference-in-Differences was used to construct counterfactuals and assess program-induced changes between enrolled and comparable non-enrolled parcels. Annual deforestation declined by 48% during the implementation period, although forest loss persisted in surrounding agricultural areas, suggesting spatial spillover. Over the long term, urban expansion and climate change were associated with declining water yield, soil retention, and baseflow, and increasing quickflow. Consequently, enrolled areas exhibited significant improvements in soil retention and baseflow, as well as reduced runoff, relative to controls. Results indicate enhanced hydrological regulation, even where avoided deforestation was not statistically distinguishable. Agricultural-supported areas also show gains in soil retention and baseflow, while exhibiting an increased runoff, reflecting differentiated hydrological responses within multifunctional landscapes. Overall, direct economic incentive-based policies focused on hydrological ecosystem services can help moderate land-use pressures, while sustaining selected hydrological ecosystem services through landscape conservation.
Watershed management through native forest protection provides important societal benefits including biodiversity conservation, cultural value, and hydrologic ecosystem services. With growing investment in watershed programs, understanding the spatial variation in return on investment (ROI) for hydrologic services is essential for guiding conservation investments. However, conservation cost and hydrologic service data for these analyses are often lacking. We partner with a watershed conservation partnership on Kauaʻi, Hawaiʻi, to analyze costs and benefits of protecting native forests from high-water-use invasive species, measuring cumulative groundwater recharge protected per dollar spent over 50 years. We combine detailed conservation cost data with land-cover change and groundwater recharge ecosystem service modeling across 16 existing and proposed management units. Using a 3% estimate for annual invasive species spread and a 3% discount rate, existing fenced units average 2244 L of cumulative groundwater recharge saved per dollar invested (range: 322–9935 L/$). When proposed new conservation areas are included, average ROI falls slightly to 2146 L/$ (range: 227–9999 L/$). ROI varies spatially, with the highest benefits occurring in middle elevation areas where evapotranspiration changes with forest composition change are greatest over the 50-year time horizon. Conservation costs are front-loaded due to fence construction and ungulate removal, while annual water benefits grow continuously as avoided recharge loss increases over time. This study demonstrates the importance of considering spatial ROI variation in watershed management, which can both justify the value of conservation efforts and aid spatial prioritization of future investments.
Land-use change (LUC) has consistently led to the degradation of natural ecosystems, thereby harming critical associated ecosystem services. Such effects have been particularly pronounced on key ecosystem services provided by peatlands such as carbon storage, nutrient regulation, and water retention. In this study we have used InVEST® models to quantify and map key ecosystem services to understand the impact of land use change in the region surrounding the Dutch Fochteloërveen peatland in 2050 and 2100. For this, we identified three contrasting scenarios representing the prioritisation of agricultural production, widespread nature-based solution (NbS) implementation, and a middle-of-the-road approach. Our results highlighted the significant potential NbS (particularly on peatlands) have to fulfil European and Dutch environmental goals. Improved ecosystem service synergies and economic benefits from implemented NbS may also help the financial and political feasibility of such LUC. Meanwhile, agricultural expansion caused widespread degradation of the assessed ecosystem services. Similarly, incorporating competing conservation and agricultural production initiatives led to significant opportunity costs: water retention and nutrient regulation only improved marginally by 2100, while carbon storage capacity declined. These results further stress the importance of stricter agricultural zoning, nutrient regulations, and policy coherence towards conservation and restoration for the Netherlands and abroad. Nevertheless, greater stakeholder involvement and the evaluation of a wider ecosystem services range are likely needed to reach the required confidence for policy to pursue widespread peatland NbS implementation.
Inter-basin water diversion projects are major infrastructure projects for addressing water scarcity, and the assessment of their ecological benefits is of great significance for the sustainable use of water resources. First, this study classifies the ecological benefits of water diversion projects into ecological benefits of engineering water supply and ecological benefits of engineering measures. Furthermore, this study proposes a calculation method to assess the two aspects of ecological benefits of water diversion projects. Specifically, the former uses emergy analysis to quantify the value of ecological water supply in enhancing the regulating, supporting, and cultural functions of water resources, while the latter calculates the net increment in ecosystem service value based on changes in land-use types. Finally, by integrating ecosystem service value theory and emergy analysis method, a dual-dimensional ecological benefit assessment framework for water diversion projects is constructed. Taking the Henan section of the Yangtze-to-Huaihe Water Diversion Project as a case study, this study finds that the total annual ecological benefits of the project reach 22.20 million USD/yr, including 6.06 million USD/yr from engineering water supply (accounting for 33%) and 16.14 million USD/yr from engineering measures (accounting for 67%). The proposed quantification method provides a practical quantitative tool for the optimization of ecological measures, decision-making for water resources scheduling, and national economic evaluation of water diversion projects. It holds significant reference value for improving the comprehensive benefit evaluation system and optimizing water resources management decisions. Moreover, it establishes a scientific basis for conducting national economic evaluations of projects and assisting decision-makers in assessing the impacts of project construction.
This study evaluates the impact of climate-smart agricultural (CSA) practices on ecosystem functions (EFs) and ecosystem services (ESs). Four CSA practices, namely, soil bund (SB), crop residue (CR), integrated conservation practice (ICP), and berken plowing (BP), were compared with conventional practices (CP) through field experiments over three rain seasons (2019–2021). The experiment used a randomized complete block design with three replications. Linear mixed-effect and Spearman correlation methods were used for data analysis. The findings reveal that, compared with that under CP, runoff under ICP, SB, and BP was significantly (P < 0.05) lower by 57.5, 55.8, and 27.1%, respectively. Similarly, soil loss was significantly lower by 76, 73, 48, and 15% in the ICP, SB, BP, and CR treatments, respectively, than in the CP plots. Nutrient losses were also significantly (P < 0.05) reduced in sequence under the ICP, SB, BP, and CR treatments compared to the CP treatment. The soil organic carbon stock (SCS) was substantially enhanced under CSA practices. The plant available water content (PAWC) was significantly (P < 0.05) higher under ICP, CR, and BP than under CP. Compared with those under CP, the wheat grain yields under ICP, CR, BP, and SB increased significantly (P < 0.05) on average by 27.4, 23.6, 23.0, and 5.0%, respectively. Overall, these CSA practices improved multiple ecosystem functions and services in the short term, as did sustainable land management practices. The findings suggest that properly designed integrated CSA strategies are essential for resilient and sustainable agriculture without compromising ecosystem services (ESs).
Coastal wetland (‘blue carbon’) restoration is widely recognised as a strategy for climate change mitigation and coastal resilience, yet the economic viability of small-scale projects (< 12 ha), the scale at which local councils and community groups most commonly operate, remains poorly understood. This study presents a benefit-cost analysis of active mangrove and saltmarsh restoration using biodegradable structures at five coastal wetland sites in Victoria, Australia. We evaluated four structure coverage intensities (20–80%) over three temporal horizons (25-year, 100-year, and full vegetation maturity). Implementation costs scaled proportionally with coverage intensity, with imported biodegradable structures representing the largest single expense. Subsequent deployments substantially reduced costs through equipment reuse. A medium-intensity strategy (40% coverage) achieved the most favourable economic outcomes, balancing upfront investment against long-term ecosystem service delivery across carbon sequestration, nitrogen cycling, fisheries enhancement, and coastal protection. Critically, the cumulative cost of inaction, foregone ecosystem services at unrestored sites, exceeded total restoration investment within 11–42 years at every site, well within local government planning horizons. However, full cost-recovery timescales substantially exceed the 25-year timeframe of existing Australian carbon credit schemes, revealing a structural misalignment between current market mechanisms and restoration economics. These results provide empirical evidence that small-scale active coastal restoration delivers net economic benefits over multi-decadal timescales. Three priorities emerge: 1) adopting medium-intensity coverage to optimise cost against long-term service delivery, 2) developing local supply chains to reduce structure costs, and 3) reforming carbon crediting frameworks to recognise progressive ecosystem service accumulation in restored coastal wetlands.
Identifying the potential and demand for forest ecosystem services (FES) in a spatially explicit manner is crucial for multi-objective forest management. We developed a robust and transparent procedure for i) selecting indicators for assessing the potential and demand for three FES (timber production, recreation and nature conservation) and ii) determining their relative importance (weights) as perceived by forest planning experts from four European countries (Estonia, Finland, Poland and Slovenia) with different forestry traditions. A total of 19 indicators of FES potential and 10 of FES demand, linked to each of the three FES, were selected based on established indicators that were updated and downscaled through iterative, multistep group communication. The selected indicators describe site and stand characteristics, accessibility, infrastructure and attractiveness, legal status and forest use. Indicators describing expert assessments of FES potential and demand were also included. We applied the fuzzy Best-Worst Method to derive weights for FES indicators incorporating experts' preferences. For FES potential, evidence-based indicators relying on empirical data received higher weights, whereas for FES demand, expert-based assessments were prioritized. Pairwise statistical comparisons of indicator weights revealed notable differences in the importance assigned by experts across countries. By considering both the potential and demand for FES and combining evidence-based indicators with expert preferences, we contribute to a comprehensive and context-sensitive framework for FES assessment. Our approach enables forest planners to identify priority areas for promoting desired FES and tailor management strategies that balance multiple FES, ensuring that decisions align with ecological potential and societal demand.
Land degradation threatens food security, water resources, and biodiversity by eroding soil health and productivity. In Ethiopia, restoration initiatives like exclosures are widely implemented, yet most studies fail to integrate plot-level ecological evidence with landscape-scale land use and land cover (LULC) dynamics. Furthermore, few studies combine these biophysical trends with long-term economic valuation of ecosystem services (ES) and local knowledge to quantify ES trade-offs. Using the Sire-Dodota district of Ethiopia, as a case study, we (i) evaluated the localized ecological performances of communal exclosures relative to LULC-driven ecosystem service (ES) changes, (ii) quantified spatial and temporal (22 years) LULC impacts on ecosystem service values (ESVs), and (iii) assessed community perceptions of restoration outcomes. We combined vegetation inventories, spatial analysis, household surveys, focus group discussions, and value transfer methods across plot and landscape scales. Our results reveal a clear socio-ecological paradox across scales. At the plot-scale, community-managed exclosures significantly enhanced biomass accumulation and biodiversity, establishing a robust empirical baseline for ecological recovery. At the landscape scale, however, LULC-based ESVs increased over 22 years, driven by gains of US$80.6 million from agricultural lands and US$1.3 million from forest lands, alongside a US$3.4 million decline in shrubland ESVs. These increases are potential values rather than realized ecosystem service flows, masking systemic losses in regulating and supporting services as short-term agricultural expansion dominates valuation outcomes. Social data from 393 households strongly corroborate these patterns. While communities consistently recognized localized ecological recovery, they favored agroforestry integration over static exclosures to offset high opportunity costs of restricted access. Together, these findings caution against reliance on uncontextualized macro-scale economic indicators and underscore the need for integrated, multifunctional landscape strategies that align ecological recovery with livelihood needs. We, therefore, recommend establishing a national, open-access ESV meta-database linked to Ethiopia's Land Degradation Neutrality (LDN) targets, alongside future multi-decadal monitoring of below-ground carbon and soil biodiversity, and the cost-benefit performance of blended finance restoration models.
Understanding ecosystem services (ES) provided by marine environments and highly mobile marine species is essential for advancing ecosystem service–based assessment and management. This study updates current knowledge on marine ES (MES) and whale-related ES (WES) by combining a systematic literature review of peer-reviewed studies published since 2020 with stakeholder-based prioritization across four Atlantic countries. Using the SALSA methodology, 29 studies (18 MES and 11 WES) were analysed to examine assessed services, classification frameworks, and spatial coverage.The review revealed substantial inconsistencies in ES classification approaches, with studies applying different frameworks or no formal framework at all. Marine ES assessments remained strongly biased toward coastal ecosystems, whereas WES studies were the only ones to explicitly address open-ocean systems. Across both bodies of literature, cultural and regulation and maintenance services were most frequently assessed, and no additional WES have been identified since a comprehensive synthesis published in 2020.Stakeholder interviews (n = 67) indicated that provisioning services were perceived as the most important contributions of marine ecosystems, while regulation and maintenance services were prioritized for whales, with bequest value ranked highest among individual WES. Strong support for management measures, including marine protected areas and vessel speed restrictions in whale hotspots, aligned with the prioritization of services related to ecosystem regulation and non-use values. Overall, the results highlight persistent challenges in the consistent classification and assessment of MES and WES and demonstrate the value of integrating literature-based evidence with stakeholder perspectives to support more robust and policy-relevant ecosystem service assessments in marine systems.
Visual landscape perception is a pivotal pathway through which suburban forest trails deliver cultural ecosystem services (CES). To address the long-standing trade-off between subjectivity and scalability in traditional assessments, this study integrates Landsense Ecology with machine learning to propose a novel evaluation framework. Using Guangzhou Tianlu Lake Forest Park as a case study, we combine SegFormer-B5 semantic segmentation with Random Forest regression to spatially model CES supply derived from visual landscape perception. Based on 2100 public perception records, this model employs objective indicators such as the Green View Index (GVI) to generate predictions across five perception dimensions, including attractiveness and naturalness, and others. The results reveal a distinct “core—transition—periphery” perceptual gradient: Core forest zones exhibit high naturalness and minimal anthropogenic disturbance, whereas entry plazas act as perceptual depressions. Notably, tree cover and GVI emerge as dominant predictors of positive visual perception, while artificial structures inversely impact CES provision. By translating qualitative perception into spatially explicit indicators, this study advances the shift from descriptive CES assessment to fine-grained, data-driven “precision greening,” offering a transferable paradigm for identifying CES supply-demand mismatches and optimizing peri-urban forest management.
Climate change is anticipated to reshape the geographic distribution of and spatial coupling and mismatch between honeybees and crops, resulting in substantial impacts on both pollination services and crop production. We employ machine learning-based species distribution models (SDMs) and use species occurrence data to project future spatial coupling and mismatch patterns between honeybees and 18 key pollination-dependent crops in China. Our findings indicate that under severe shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) climate change scenarios, disruptions in honeybee–crop coupling may significantly harm pollination services and crop yields. By 2100, under the most unfavourable climate scenario, the proportions of honeybee–crop coupling for most crops are expected to decline by more than 20%. Moreover, the honeybee–crop coupling zones are projected to contract, leading to 8.78 million hectares reductions in the total crop plantation areas in these zones and subsequent annual losses of 93.36 million tons of high-quality crop products. Although an increase of 55.24 million tons in low-quality crop production from a crop-only zone without honeybee pollination is expected, the total annual crop production will decrease by 38.12 million tons. The corresponding honeybee pollination services are valued to decline by CNY 191.25–221.96 billion. These results underscore the urgent need for adaptive strategies to safeguard pollinator-dependent agriculture under climate change. This implies that adaptation should include stronger monitoring and early warning of changes in honeybee–crop coupling, together with enhanced conservation and adaptive management of pollinator habitats and floral resources, and more flexible deployment of managed colonies and stronger adaptive capacity of beekeepers. Moreover, crop-specific spatial heterogeneity suggests that regional-level assessments are essential for designing targeted climate change adaptation strategies.
Forest ecosystem services (ES) emerge across multiple spatiotemporal scales, are context-dependent, and often display non-linear dynamics. Yet, ES assessments often rely on global statistical methods applied to predefined spatial units, limiting their ability to capture context-specific interactions at the scales at which they emerge. Addressing this gap is critical for integrating ES into planning and management, particularly in multifunctional forest landscapes. Here, we demonstrate how geographically weighted machine learning with adaptive kernels can be used to identify the spatial scales at which individual ES are most strongly expressed, reveal their underlying non-linear drivers, and capture interactions among ES operating at different scales. Focusing on montane and subalpine forests in Catalonia (northeast Spain), we assessed four forest ES indicators: biomass production, fire risk, mushroom production, and scenic beauty, empirically quantified based on the 399 permanent plots with the presence of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris), black pine (Pinus nigra), mountain pine (Pinus uncinata), and European silver fir (Abies alba), re-measured in the three cycles of the Spanish National Forest Inventory spanning 1989 to 2015. We first identified dominant global drivers of each ES using the Random Forest (RF) algorithm and then applied Geographically weighted Random Forest (GRF) to capture spatial heterogeneity in ES–driver relationships. Local scales were defined as the spatial extents that maximized model performance. These scales were subsequently employed in spatially weighted non-parametric correlation analyses to assess ES interactions. Our results reveal scale and driver dependency: ES dominated by a single structural driver, such as biomass production and fire risk, operated at broader spatial scales and exhibited relatively consistent interaction patterns, whereas services shaped by multiple co-dominant drivers, such as mushroom production and scenic beauty, displayed localized, heterogeneous patterns. By employing geographically weighted adaptive kernels, our framework captured both global and local ES relationships, demonstrating its value for multi-scale assessments, that can effectively aid geographically oriented forest management planning. Future work will expand the observational domain, thereby enhancing machine learning applications for spatially explicit forest ES analyses.
Because urban landscapes are heterogeneous, the methods and spatial resolution used to depict the land surface greatly influence the representation of urban features. Land cover products such as tree canopy cover (TCC) are particularly sensitive to the methodology and resolution used in their creation. Differences in TCC mapping have implications on the outcomes of ecosystem service (ES) models, including those underlying natural capital accounting. Here, we quantify the sensitivity of physical rainfall interception and local climate regulation ES models for 189 U.S. cities to TCC inputs from four TCC products: a) National Land Cover Database (NLCD), b) Enhanced NLCD TCC, c) aggregated city-specific composite, and d) global tree canopy height dataset. We find both city-level and aggregate differences in TCC estimates, from a 38% decrease to a 3% increase relative to an aggregated high-resolution product. These differences result in up to 3% overestimations and 27% underestimation of rainfall interception and 2–56% underestimation of local climate regulation ES. City size, population, and greenness in addition to climatic variation drove differences between TCC products, and this variation requires users to carefully consider the choice of input data for any planned analysis. Though high-resolution data can offer greater nuance and accuracy, more limited spatiotemporal availability can hinder their usefulness for long-term monitoring applications such as natural capital accounting. The differences found in this study provide valuable insights for making informed decisions on data inputs for use in urban ecosystem research and for contextualizing model outcomes.
Cryosphere ecosystems play an important role in climate regulation, water security, and human wellbeing. However, how these contributions are assessed varies widely across studies and regions. In this systematic review (n = 62 studies, 2000–2025), we identify and compare the methodological approaches applied in cryosphere ecosystem service assessments (CryoES), distinguishing between non-economic evaluations (CryoES-NEV) and economic valuations (CryoES-EV). Results reveal a clear predominance of CryoES-NEV approaches (84%), primarily based on remote sensing and GIS analyses (27% of CryoES-NEV studies), hydrological modelling (19%), and participatory approaches (13%). CryoES-EV studies remain limited (16%) and rely mainly on benefit transfer (40% of CryoES-EV studies), willingness-to-pay surveys (30%), and travel cost methods (20%). Marked geographical biases emerge: 29% of case studies focus on the Himalayas, 24% on the Arctic, and 15% on the Andes, while sea ice and ice sheets together account for less than 10% of all analyses. From a thematic perspective, Regulation & Maintenance services dominate (51% of all assessments), particularly hydrological and climate-related contributions, whereas cultural services represent 26%, with socio-cultural valuation approaches remaining limited. The literature also shows substantial heterogeneity in indicators and assessment methods, limiting comparability across CryoES-NEV studies. Only 19% of the reviewed articles explicitly link cryosphere ecosystem services to the Sustainable Development Goals, and just 6% reference Natural Capital Accounting. This review highlights major gaps, including the limited use of economic valuation, the underrepresentation of sea ice and ice sheet systems, and the weak integration of cryosphere ecosystem services into decision-making frameworks. Overall, this review maps how cryosphere ecosystem services have been assessed and valued to date and identifies where the field needs to advance next, methodologically, geographically, and in terms of policy uptake.
The EU Nature Restoration Regulation (NRR) aims to shift forest ecosystems towards increased naturalness, with long-term benefits for biodiversity. Here we model two scenarios of restoration in a southern Swedish production forest landscape, combining the re-establishment of forest habitat types with management practices of reduced intensity. We analyze temporal developments in key biodiversity indicators outlined in Article 12 of the NRR and compare them with a business-as-usual forest management scenario. In addition, we examine long-term effects of restoration on carbon storage in biomass, timber provisioning, bilberry supply, aesthetic value, habitat maintenance, and ecosystem service evenness. Restoration scenarios increased carbon storage in biomass, bilberry supply, habitat maintenance, and aesthetic value compared with business-as-usual management, but resulted in reductions in timber provisioning of 16–26% by 2050. Moreover, restoration promoted a more even spatial distribution of the supply of diverse ecosystem services. Our results show that assessments of biodiversity change are strongly influenced by indicator design. In the business-as-usual scenario, increases in mean landscape-level deadwood supply occurred simultaneously with declines in the area of deadwood-rich habitat, indicating that coarse-scale aggregated indicators may mask losses of high-quality habitat. This highlights the importance of combining complementary monitoring approaches that capture both spatial changes in habitat quality and broader landscape trends when evaluating restoration progress and NRR compliance. Overall, the results demonstrate that ambitious forest restoration can provide long-term enhancement of biodiversity indicators and lead to increased ecosystem service supply in hemiboreal production forest landscapes, at the expense of reductions in timber production.
