This study demonstrates that the flow of tourists to the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation (AZ RF) has been growing in recent years. The potential positive role of tourism in the socioeconomic development of the Arctic, with its particular importance for ensuring the territorial integrity and security of the country, has been confirmed. Accordingly, the article substantiates the relevance of studying the process of development of Arctic tourism and the problems associated with it, specifically, analyzing existing trends and identifying prospects for the development of Arctic tourism based on expert assessments of the tourism market in the AZ RF obtained during a series of interviews. These expert assessments are compared with the position of federal authorities, as reflected in regulatory documents. Data from the Federal State Statistics Service and the Unified Federal Register of Tour Operators, analyzed using applied statistics methods, are also used. It is shown that Arctic tourism is considered in regulatory documents as a tool for strengthening the sustainability of the Arctic, and its identification as a special type of tourism is based both on the commonality of its objectives and the potential to replicate successful practices. The following is revealed: for tour operators, their activities are not simply a source of income, but also a vital mission, stemming from the desire to show their homeland to a wide range of people. It has been confirmed that tour operators primarily discuss what is needed to improve the sustainability of tourism itself. It has been established that there is a significant divergence in tourism development trends, its prospects, and the factors determining this for different regions of the AZ RF. The main trends in the development of Arctic tourism have been identified, including a decrease in the share of foreign citizens and changes in the quality of infrastructure. A number of recommendations are made for federal authorities on the development of Arctic tourism.
Long-term changes in the main climate indicators in the study area of the lower Yenisei basin are analyzed based on meteorological station data for 1952–2020. Air temperature trends are characterized by a steady increase at a rate of 0.39–0.45°C/10 years; for most of the meteorological stations under investigation, an increase in atmospheric precipitation is noted for the period from 1966 to 2020, amounting to 2.4–32.6 mm/10 years. The influence of climate on the current conditions of formation and ongoing changes in the regimes of annual and winter low-water runoff of the lower Yenisei river basin is studied. It is shown that the noticeable climate warming in the lower Yenisei basin over the past decades has been accompanied not only by a rise in air temperature and a slight increase in precipitation, but also by a change in the annual and winter low-water runoff. Using hydro- and meteorological data, an analysis is conducted of changes in the mean annual and mean low-water runoff for the entire observation period (1939–2020) and for the period of modern air temperature increase (1976–2020). The analysis of changes in winter low-water runoff by years for different periods reveals that, since the 1940s, all the rivers studied show a tendency toward an increase in this indicator from 0.13 to 1.25 mm/year. The annual runoff also increases on all rivers from 0.09 to 0.93 mm/year. This indicates a general trend of increasing river runoff in the study area of the lower Yenisei basin. According to the results, the trend in the winter low-water runoff during the period of modern climate warming is more pronounced compared to the annual runoff. This demonstrates that permafrost thawing is becoming a more significant factor in the formation of the river runoff in the lower Yenisei basin.
This article presents a strategy for the empirical–statistical simulation modeling of the organization of forest biogeocenoses as initial objects of terrestrial geosystem monitoring. Spatial functional monitoring of forests is based on empirically established local and regional landscape–ecological relationships, which are considered as mechanisms of metabolic responses of forest geo(eco-)systems to certain climatic trends. This constitutes the novelty of the prognostic empirical–simulation concept of local (and regional) geoecological forecasting developed by the author. The property of polyzonality of local geo(eco-)systems as a way of their response to global climate changes is revealed. An ordination analysis of landscape relationships is carried out based on the main discrete parameters of the biological cycle. A local empirical simulation of the regional bioclimatic trend using the hydrothermoedaphic system of biogeocenoses is conducted, and patterns of transitions of forest communities into critical states are identified. The article describes catenary landscape–ecological structures that form regional systems of localized natural zonality, capable of simulating the main directions and scales of geosystemic restructurings. The landscape–ecological forecast itself is of an experimental nature. It is presented as a system of operations with ecological niches of the objects under study. In computational models, the course of predicted processes is reproduced using their empirical simulation by spatially distributed parameters of basic ecological niches. The basic principle of landscape–ecological forecasting has been formulated, corresponding to one of the provisions of general ecology, namely, Gause’s law of competitive exclusion. A description of future states of biogeocenotic systems is carried out based on their current spatial organization in accordance with the fundamental properties of ergodicity of the natural environment. Certain time limitations of the empirical–simulation method of landscape–ecological forecasting are noted, and it is recommended to use a more meaningful interpretation of the results of forecast calculations in order to avoid these limitations.
The characteristic features of distribution and behavior of the Baikal omul were studied for the first time using static hydroacoustic recording from the ice cover of Lake Baikal in the Selenga shallows, as well as in the adjacent deep-water area near the villages of Buguldeika and Bolshie Koty. The analysis of acoustic data on changes in fish aggregation density made it possible to assess their distribution and migration patterns. At the Selenga station, fish schools were observed moving at the same depths throughout 24 hours, while at the Buguldeika and Bolshie Koty stations, individuals aggregated into small groups at depths of 100–200 and 250–350 m, depending on the time of day. The reconstructed fish size composition from acoustic data based on the target strength of individual fish made it possible to determine the characteristics of their migrations at different stations. At the Selenga station, a high proportion of fish with a standard length of up to 17 cm was detected, indicating the presence of juvenile fish from the spawning river. In contrast, at the Buguldeika and Bolshie Koty stations, predominantly individuals with a standard length (SL) of 20–38 cm were recorded, which indicates the migration of fish over two years old from the underwater slope zone of the Selenga shallows to the mesopelagic zone. The study results demonstrated the fundamental feasibility of monitoring the distribution, migration patterns, and formation of the size composition of fish using the hydroacoustic method in static mode during the winter period. This opens new perspectives for studying the seasonal fish behavior and helps to better understand their ecology and interrelations in the natural environment.
The article considers S.A. Karaganov’s concept of Siberization and the possibilities of using such theoretical tools as V. Christaller’s theory of central places and A. Lösch’s theory of economic landscape for its implementation. It is concluded that a version of the relativistic theory of central places for systems with a dispersed (distributed) main center may be useful for describing and planning urban settlement systems in Asian Russia, which are significantly less mature than those in the European part of the country. In the Far East, it is possible to form a system of central places with a hierarchy corresponding to K = 2. It has been established that settlement development in the post-industrial period should not be treated as a secondary factor in relation to production development, since the standort (location) of modern enterprises should ensure not only reduced costs for energy, raw materials and semi-finished products, as well as proximity to markets, but also advantages in the competition for highly qualified labor. Only a high-quality urban environment can provide these benefits. It is reasonable to expect different patterns of production distribution in the north and in the south of Siberia. In the north, according to Weber, the standort should ensure minimal costs, while in the south, the location according to Lösch will predominate. Such a standort ensures maximum profit. It is shown that even in the most developed regions of Siberia, the location of new high-tech production facilities “according to Weber” is still inevitable. This follows from the continuous nature of territorial development established by B.N. Zimin: each new industry develops it anew. Siberization is being hampered by a serious delay in the implementation of long-discussed railway infrastructure projects: the Barentskomur, the North-Siberian Railway, and the Northern Latitudinal Passage. Only the construction of these railways will significantly increase the cargo-generating base for the ports of the Northern Sea Route. Meanwhile, projects far less urgently needed for the country are being discussed, such as a bridge to Sakhalin and even a tunnel under the Bering Strait.
This article examines a methodology for assessing the potential natural vulnerability of landscapes using Khabarovsk krai as an example. Based on the calculations, seven categories of landscapes are identified according to the degree of integral vulnerability, from extremely high to very low, and the contribution and spatial distribution of individual vulnerability components (pyrogenic, soil–cryogenic, etc.) to the overall indicator were analyzed. The territorial distribution of the assessment indicators is presented in a series of maps. It is revealed that extremely vulnerable geosystems (mainly highlands and heavily dissected middle mountain areas with goltsy, mountain tundra communities, etc.) and highly vulnerable geosystems (midmountain and low-mountain areas with coniferous forests and postpyrogenic grass–shrub communities) are insignificantly distributed, occupying 3.4 and 7.9
The influence of atmospheric circulation on the ice regime of Lake Baikal from 1952 to 2025 was studied. The timings of freeze-up and ice break-up of the lake in the southern, middle, and northern parts of Baikal were analyzed. Synoptic situations preceding the late freeze-up were also analyzed. It was found that changes in the timing of freezing and breaking up of the lake ice led to a reduction of the period of ice cover. Since the mid-1970s, the dates of freeze-up on Baikal have become later and have shifted from the end of December and the beginning of January to the end of January. The ice break-up dates have shifted from mid- and late May to early May and late April. Over the past 70 years, the period of ice cover on Baikal has decreased by 19 days. The maximum ice cover duration values were observed from 1955 to 1975, the minimum ones have been recorded starting from the 1980s. The shortest period of ice cover occurred in 2025. Compared to the average long-term values, the period of ice cover was 29 days shorter in the southern part, 38 days shorter in the middle part, and 22 days shorter in the north of Lake Baikal. The influence of zonal atmospheric circulation on the lake’s ice regime was revealed. Late freeze-up is preceded by the latitudinal transport of warm air masses from the Atlantic, southwestern transport of air masses in the middle and lower troposphere from the regions of Central Asia, active North Atlantic cyclogenesis, and activation of the upper frontal zone. The weakening of the Siberian anticyclone has a significant impact on the ice regime of Lake Baikal.
Precipitation is a key indicator for determining the climate of a region. However, erratic precipitation patterns are detrimental to urban infrastructure. The objective of this study is to forecast precipitation patterns using historical time series data. The study used precipitation data for a century (1922–2022) to project future precipitation trends for the semi-arid region of the Agra district of Uttar Pradesh, India. A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was employed for the same purpose. Through data decomposition and the augmented Dickey–Fuller test, the study confirms the model’s stationarity prerequisites, with the SARIMA (2,1,1) (0,1,1)12 configuration proving to be the most accurate for the study. The model accuracy was further validated through residual checks and performance assessment against established metrics, such as the Akaike information criterion, Bayesian information criterion, and Hannan-Quinn information criterion. Forecasts were generated at 80 and 95
The article considers the conditions of formation of carbonic mineral waters common within the Khentei-Daurian vault, located in the neighboring territories of Russia and Mongolia. This area belongs to the Daurian hydromineral region. Currently, 28 manifestations of carbonic waters are known, but there is a high probability that their number will increase with detailed research of this hard-to-reach territory. All carbonic springs are associated with tectonic fault zones. They are characterized by low water temperatures and high CO2 content. The main anion of the studied waters is bicarbonate, while calcium and magnesium predominate among the cations. Elevated concentrations of several balneologically valuable microelements are noted in the spring waters. One of the most valuable components is iron, which is present in all the studied springs. According to existing classifications, carbonic waters of the Khentei-Daurian vault belong to the Darasunskii, Kukinskii, and Lastochkinskii types. The analysis of the isotopic composition of carbon has shown that CO2 is of magmatic origin. Some enrichment with the light carbon isotope is explained by the influence of organogenic carbonic acid from coal seams or from peat bog deposits. There are resorts in Mongolia operating on the basis of carbonic waters of the Khentei-Daurian vault. In Russia, the former “Yamarovka” resort is used for bottling mineral water for retail sale; other carbonic springs are visited by vacationers without any organization. In addition to the water’s healing properties, the carbonic springs of the Khentei-Daurian vault are natural monuments and require constant protection from pollution and depletion.
The relevance of this study is determined by the low population size and density of Siberia, as well as the shortage of labor resources amid depopulation and migration outflow from the territories. Significant differences in the socioeconomic status of Siberian federal subjects determine the movement of the population to more developed regions, exacerbating territorial disparities in the distribution of labor resources in the labor market. The novelty of the study lies in its comprehensive approach to studying the relationships between demographic processes, economic development of the territory, and social changes in society. The features of territorial dynamics of the population in the labor market (in terms of size, growth, distribution of those employed in economic sectors, and unemployment rate) are analyzed, taking into account the influence of economic and demographic factors. Regional factors that determine the increase/decrease in the total population, the working-age population, and those employed in the economy have been identified. Between 2011 and 2023, significant shifts occurred in the overall structure of the population employed in the economy, with a reduction in the total number of this group within 1
The article analyzes manifestations of the Little Ice Age in the southern mainland Russian Far East. The study is based on a synthesis of paleogeographic data, which, in the absence of historical records, are the most informative source for reconstructing environmental changes. The primary natural archives are deposits of mountain lakes and peatlands situated across different landscape belts of the low- to mid-elevation zones of the Sikhote-Alin and East Manchurian Mountains (at elevations of 300 to 1600 m). Changes in the composition of diatom flora, as well as components of forest and peatland ecosystems, provide the data to reconstruct abrupt climate shifts that took place from the 12th–13th centuries onward, including the transition from the Medieval Climate Anomaly. It is established that the late medieval cooling in the southern Russian Far East was wet, characterized by increased precipitation, including winter snowfall, and frequent flash floods. This baseline was punctuated by short-term intervals of reduced moisture availability and seasonal droughts. These drier conditions typically coincided with solar activity minima. The cooling affected the development of mountain landscapes, resulting in a change in the ratio of canopy-forming species, a shift in landscape belt boundaries, widespread development of sphagnum peatlands, and the emergence of northern species among peat-forming flora. At the end of the Little Ice Age, human settlement and active land use became the primary drivers of landscape transformation.
This article considers the problem of migration of herders from rural to urban areas of Mongolia in the wake of the country’s transition to a market economy in the 1990s. These reforms (as well as natural disasters) led to a loss of some livestock (the source of livelihood for rural residents) and a lack of employment opportunities. The article presents an analysis of the main indicators of the internal migration in Mongolia from 1990 to 2020 at the province and soum levels, and it determines the changes in the population distribution and settlement system due to internal migration. Over the past 30 years, the population of Mongolia has increased by 1 203 200 people, or 58.7
Sustainable development of the Baikal region requires a detailed analysis of the types of hazards and risks that can disrupt the unique ecological system of Lake Baikal and the natural landscapes of its water protection zone. This study focuses on analyzing social, natural, and technogenic hazards based on a risk-oriented approach. A general description of the territory and the main causes of natural, technogenic and biosocial emergencies in the Baikal region are provided. Each municipality within the territory under consideration is represented as a socio-natural-technogenic system characterized by a set of basic territorial risks, the analysis of which was performed taking into account statistical data on the number of hazardous events that occurred and the damage caused. The obtained basic risk assessments are the basis for determining the complex territorial risk represented as a radius vector in a three-dimensional space of the socio-, eco-, and technosphere. The approach allows for a quantitative assessment of the contribution of each sphere of the socio-natural-technogenic system to the complex risk indicator and simplifies the graphical representation of the system under consideration. The highest complex risk values were obtained for the cities of the Baikal region (Bratsk, Irkutsk, Ulan-Ude, and Chita), where the primary hazard is associated with technogenic incidents. The elevated complex risk indicators for municipal districts are due to the high frequency of natural fires and floods, as well as seismic hazard. The assessment of complex territorial risks is the basis for predicting the sustainable development of territories under intense anthropogenic impact. The obtained results can be used in developing disaster risk reduction measures and socioeconomic development programs for the Baikal region.
The issue of optimal formation of transport corridors in Mongolia is examined on the basis of a comprehensive assessment of social, economic, and infrastructural factors of a domestic and international nature. The analysis uses options of ten vertical and seven horizontal transport corridors proposed by the State Great Hural, international organizations, and domestic researchers. The assessment of these options is carried out based on the multicriteria analysis method (MCA) for the following five groups of factors: basic conditions of the transport network, the possibility of servicing large cities and populations, border ports conditions, the possibility of connecting to the international transport network, and the possibility of supporting industrial development. Ten criteria and 25 variables are used within the framework of the aforementioned groups of factors, and the relative weights of the criteria are determined. Unlike previous studies, this research takes into account additional criteria, including the transport routes of neighboring countries, the location of cities and border ports, and others. It has been found that indicators such as the presence of cities along the corridors, the population size within their influence zones, and territories suitable for industrial development are of relatively high importance. The assessment identifies Mongolia’s highest rated transport corridors: three vertical corridors (Tsagaannuur–Khovd–Bulgan in the western part of the country and Altanbulag–Darkhan–Ulaanbaatar–Dalanzadgad–Gashuunsukhait and Altanbulag–Darkhan–Ulaanbaatar–Zamiin-Uud in the central part) and two horizontal corridors (Tsagaannuur–Khovd–Bayankhongor–Ulaanbaatar–Choibalsan–Sumber and Tsagaannuur–Khovd–Bayankhongor–Ulaanbaatar–Bichigt). The resulting optimal transport corridor options are important both for supporting national socio-economic development and creating favorable conditions for population settlement, as well as for connecting Mongolia with neighboring countries, major transport and logistics hubs, and seaports.
An Erratum to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1134/S187537282556001X
The species diversity of geomorphological processes involved in reshaping the topography of mouth areas of tidal rivers is identified. The geodynamic situation in the lower reaches of almost two hundred rivers that flow into seas and have tidal heights of 2 meters or more at their mouths is analyzed. It is shown that the greatest diversity in the alternation of river segments with different morphodynamic channel types is characteristic of river mouth areas of an estuarine–delta type. The study is conducted at various levels, focusing both on identifying general patterns of channel formation in delta and estuarine areas and on determining the leading processes that model river bank geosystems with direct participation of marine processes. At the macrolevel, the main types of morphodynamic processes involved in the morpho-lithogenesis of river mouth areas at all stages of their formation are identified; at the mesolevel, the varieties of morphodynamic channel types identified within the overall areas are determined. It is shown that the leading processes that influence the development of valley geosystems of tidal rivers are waterlogging, slope slumping, suffosion, and sheet erosion on bank ledges and sides of erosional forms. A special group of processes not encountered outside mouth areas of tidal rivers consists of wave erosion from the developed tidal bore and sediment accumulation at the upper boundary of the spread of tidal processes. In terms of the nature of manifestations and geomorphological processes that determine the modeling of the banks of tidal rivers, their reshaping is largely similar to the development of banks in lower reaches of reservoirs and, to a much lesser extent, to the formation of lowland river channels.
Improving the effectiveness of public administration in the field of environmental protection in the regions depends on how well the environmental programs are implemented. For a number of reasons, an analysis of the development and execution of these documents raises numerous questions regarding the low quality of implementation. Based on an analysis of the results of our own research and conclusions reflected in the publications on this topic, a summary of individual shortcomings in the development, implementation, and evaluation parameters of the effectiveness of programs is provided. This article presents a set of reasons for the low effectiveness of environmental programs; the use of content analysis has made it possible to identify the most obvious of them. Fifty categories of reasons were identified. The latter were differentiated according to their content by 181 codes and analyzed in order to determine the share of the most significant reasons. It is shown that the lack of a unified methodology for assessing the effectiveness of programs does not allow one to objectively assess the effectiveness of the tasks set to improve the environmental state of a territory. In 2025, environmental programs will be extended in most regions of Russia. It is pointed out that solving problems that affect the success of regional environmental programs creates the potential for improving environmental management systems and the ecological situation. The results are important for improving regional environmental policies and developing appropriate programs.
Soil depth plays an important role in plant cultivation. Assessing soil depth using digital terrain analysis is advantageous in comparison with conventional field observation both in terms of reduced time and labor costs and in terms of avoiding solum destruction. The objective of the study is to improve the accuracy of soil depth prediction in digital terrain analysis based on a dataset on parent materials and a nonlinear partial least squares regression. Soil depth modeling is performed and compared using simple partial least squares regression (SPLSR), PLSR with parent materials (PLSRP), and nonlinear PLSR with parent materials (NPLSRP), simultaneously. Using PLSRP and NPLSRP, various models corresponding to parent materials within the study area are constructed. The models’ fits are assessed using the coefficient of determination in calibration (R_cal^2), the coefficient of determination in validation (R_val^2), root mean square error of calibration (RMSEC), and root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP). The results of PLSRP outperform SPLSR by 0.08 in R_val^2 and by 6.2 in RMSEP. NPLSRP, compared to the PLSRP, shows an increase in R_val^2 by 0.31 and a decrease in RMSEP by 17.1. The results indicate that NPLSRP can achieve a significant improvement in the accuracy of soil depth predictions.
This article systematizes the national-territorial units of the state and municipal structure, as well as other ethnic entities of Eastern Siberia, the hierarchy of which is presented as follows: republics–administrative-territorial units with a special status (former autonomous okrugs)–places of traditional residence of indigenous small-numbered peoples. An analysis of changes in the ethnic composition of the population of Eastern Siberia between the 2010 and 2021 censuses is provided at three territorial levels—macroregional, regional, and municipal. Of the ten groups of peoples identified by geographical location, an increase in the number and a rise in their share are observed only among the major indigenous ethnic groups and small-numbered peoples and the peoples of Central Asia. Ethnic Russians and indigenous peoples predominate in the total population, the increase in the total share of which reflects an ongoing trend toward decreasing ethnic diversity. Based on the share of the ethnic Russian population in municipalities in 2021, the ethnic space of Eastern Siberia was divided into zones, identifying the Russian ethnic core, the contact zone of the Russian ethnic megacore, and its internal and external periphery. It has been established that the dominant trend from 1989 to 2010 toward the increasing polarization of the ethnic space into opposite components—the Russian ethnic core and its external polyethnic periphery, i.e., into “Russian” and “ethnic” districts and cities—has weakened significantly and has mostly exhausted itself in the period of 2010–2021. This is largely due to the slowdown in growth (Yakuts) or even a decrease in the number (Buryats and especially Khakass) of major ethnic groups. Therefore, a certain stabilization of the process of monoethnicization in the republics of the macroregion (with the exception of Tuva and partly Yakutia) can be expected.
The article identifies the commodity and geographical composition of foreign trade turnover between Siberian regions and their bordering countries: China, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia. The place Siberia occupies in the structure of Russia’s economy and the problem of distortion of its statistical indicators are discussed. The role of Siberia’s foreign trade on the national and global scales, as well as the dynamics of its share and monetary value indicators since 2017, are analyzed. The geographical structure of Siberia’s trade turnover is described. The issues of Russia’s role in its trade relations with China, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia are briefly discussed. The shares and monetary value indicators of trade turnover and export/import commodity groups of each Siberian region with countries bordering Siberia are calculated. The regions that hold leading positions in the compositions of export and import are analyzed in greater detail. Special features of foreign trade structures of various Siberian regions are identified. The degrees of importance of foreign trade with China, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia for Siberian regions are considered. The article touches upon the issue of the emerging competition between Siberia and Mongolia in the export of similar commodity groups to foreign markets, primarily coal, copper ores and concentrates. The routes of commodity flows between Siberia and bordering countries are described. The key border crossings in the trade turnover with the discussed countries are named. The issues related to China’s Belt and Road initiative are briefly discussed. The article also considers issues of future foreign trade turnover between Siberia and neighboring countries: the predicted increase in the role of China and Kazakhstan in Siberia’s foreign trade in the short term and the instability of the trade prospects between Mongolia and Siberia due to the narrow range of goods exchanged. An analysis of the transformation of the geographical directions of Russia’s foreign trade in the early 2020s is analyzed on the national scale on the example of the export of coal as the main cargo of Siberian railways. Specific outlook scenarios for the development of Siberian foreign trade relations are forecasted. The article concludes by examining the emerging need for diversification of the geographical structure of Russia’s foreign trade.
