Economy

Persistent poverty, limited human capital development, and weak social protection remain critical challenges in northern Nigeria, particularly in Sokoto State. Although Nigeria's Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) Programme under the National Social Investment Programme seeks to improve population well-being, its effectiveness has been constrained by irregular disbursements, weak monitoring systems, inadequate transfer amounts, and poor integration with education and health services. This study examined lessons from Brazil's Bolsa Família Programme to inform strategies for strengthening Nigeria's CCT Programme in Sokoto State. A mixed-methods approach was employed, combining questionnaire data from 400 beneficiary households across four purposively selected Local Government Areas with programme reports and official records. The findings indicate that despite relatively high compliance with programme conditionalities, irregular payments, insufficient financial support, weak institutional coordination, and limited service delivery significantly undermine improvements in education, health and long-term poverty reduction. In contrast, Bolsa Família's effectiveness is attributed to predictable and adequate transfers, strong monitoring and evaluation systems, integration with public services, robust institutional coordination, and gender-sensitive targeting. The study recommended that strengthening payment regularity, monitoring mechanisms, service integration, governance, and policy continuity would enhance programme effectiveness, promote sustainable human capital development, reduce intergenerational poverty, and improve sustainable population well-being.

This study provides a deeper investigation into growth theories by comparing Paul Romer’s endogenous growth theory with Luigi Pasinetti’s structural economic dynamics framework. The analysis is primarily theoretical. The methodology is analytical and conceptual, grounded in a comparative theoretical framework. This paper employs a deductive approach to explore the internal consistency and evolutionary trajectories of these two distinct growth paradigms. Using the Solow growth model as a baseline, the paper examines the innovative contributions of Romer and Pasinetti to the field. Although these theories differ methodologically and epistemologically, they share a fundamental emphasis on technical progress, defined as technological knowledge, as the primary driver of economic growth. This study highlights their commonalities, specifically their focus on knowledge, learning, and skills as the core engines of progress, while noting that Pasinetti adopts a more evolutionary perspective. Finally, the paper contrasts their specific analytical toolkits: Romer’s reliance on the aggregate production function and the rational expectations hypothesis versus Pasinetti’s utilization of input-output analysis, vertically integrated sectors, and the "natural system" of production. The paper aims to provide new insights for future research, contributing to the debate regarding alternative approaches to growth theory.

This study investigates the moderating role of institutional quality in the relationship between foreign aid and economic growth in Nigeria. Despite substantial inflows of Official Development Assistance (ODA), Nigeria continues to experience poor macroeconomic performance, raising concerns about the effectiveness of aid in promoting growth. The study is anchored on the two-gap model, which posits that foreign aid can bridge savings and foreign exchange constraints in developing economies, while incorporating institutional quality as a conditioning factor. Using annual data from 1984 to 2024 sourced from the World Development Indicators (WDI) and World Governance Indicators (WGI), the study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to examine both short-run and long-run dynamics. Empirical findings reveal that foreign aid exerts a positive but statistically insignificant contemporaneous effect on economic growth; however, its cumulative impact is negative and significant, indicating inefficiencies in utilization. Institutional quality also shows a negative and significant effect, reflecting weak governance structures. Crucially, the interaction between foreign aid and institutional quality is negative and significant, suggesting that poor institutional frameworks undermine the growth-enhancing potential of aid. It recommends strengthening governance, transparency, and accountability to ensure efficient utilization of aid and improved economic outcomes.

This study examines how gender-related credit limits influence the performance of firms in Nigeria's manufacturing, retail, and other service sectors. The primary objective is to assess how challenges in accessing credit, which are affected by gender, impact firm productivity and investment behavior. Methodology: Utilizing data from the 2014 Nigerian Enterprise Survey, which includes responses from 2,676 Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs), the study employs a robust propensity score matching (PSM) technique. The analysis indicates that male-headed firms generally have better access to credit and tend to perform slightly better across the sectors analyzed. Specifically, in the manufacturing sector, firms facing female credit constraints exhibited lower average output and capital utilization compared to their male counterparts, although these differences were not always statistically significant. Similar trends were observed in the retail and other service sectors, where female-led firms with credit constraints consistently underperformed relative to male-led firms with better credit access. Implications: The findings underscore the importance of addressing gender bias in access to finance to promote equitable economic growth and reduce poverty in Nigeria. Policy measures should focus on developing gender-sensitive microfinance services, adopting innovative lending approaches such as cash-flow-based credit assessments, enhancing financial literacy, and implementing regulatory reforms aimed at closing the credit gap between genders.

The increasing frequency and intensity of agro-climatic shocks pose serious threats to rural livelihoods in Nigeria, where agriculture remains the primary source of sustenance. This study examines the relationship between agro-climatic shocks and multidimensional poverty among rural households, utilizing data from the 2018/2019 General Household Survey. Using the Multidimensional Poverty Index, logit regression, and ordinary least squares regression models, the study assesses the extent and determinants of multidimensional poverty in the face of climate-induced shocks. The findings reveal that many rural households experience multidimensional poverty, with 60.8 percent facing key deprivations in access to education, healthcare services, and basic infrastructure. Poor rainfall, property loss, and declining output prices are major contributors to worsening poverty. Households affected by poor rainfall are more likely to fall into multidimensional poverty, reflecting the vulnerability of rain-fed agriculture to climatic variability. Limited access to credit, non-participation in cooperative societies, and lack of extension services further increase poverty risks by weakening adaptive capacity. The study calls for climate-resilient agricultural policies, improved rural financial inclusion, and stronger social safety nets as essential measures to reduce the adverse effects of agro-climatic shocks and support the resilience of rural communities in Nigeria.

Financial resilience is influenced by Decentralized finance (DeFi) adoption only if individuals possess financial literacy and have limited risk perception, while the intermediary of trust in blockchain technology also influences DeFi adoption. Through quantitative research, the study investigates the positive role that DeFi adoption plays in improving financial resilience via superior liquidity management, asset diversification, and enhanced absorption of adverse economic shocks. It demonstrates the critical role trust plays in a technology such as blockchain, which uses its transparency, security, and immutability to gain users' trust. Fifth, findings demonstrate how financial literacy is a bridging link in the relationship between DeFi take-up and financial resilience, while risk perception weakens the encouraging effects of trust in blockchain technology. To uncover direct, mediating, and moderating relationships, structural equation modeling will be utilized to analyze results from individuals and organizations involved with DeFi platforms. The research findings provide policymakers, academics, and practitioners with insights into potential solutions to promote a safe and inclusive DeFi ecosystem. The study fosters financial resilience and inclusion in an increasingly evolving decentralized financial landscape by addressing the trust, financial literacy, and risk perception of two distinct groups.

Recessionary periods are recurring challenges in any economy, particularly during times marked by high inflation, political instability, trade conflicts, global pandemics, rising consumer costs, and stagnating wages. This study aims to explore how organizations, managers, and workers can navigate and adapt to the complex realities of economic downturns. Using a qualitative methodology, data were collected through in-depth interviews with eight senior executives and business experts who collectively possess nearly 300 years of professional experience in the United States. Their insights offer a nuanced understanding of how recessions affect employment, organizational strategy, and workforce resilience. The findings reveal that, while recessions present significant threats, they also offer strategic opportunities for reinvention and growth. Workers and organizations that approach these periods with preparation, adaptability, and empathy are better positioned to endure economic hardship and even emerge stronger. Practical recommendations include preparing for economic disruptions with strategic foresight, maintaining transparent communication, supporting employee well-being, and identifying new market opportunities. These insights equip working professionals and organizational leaders to face recessions with clarity and resilience, enabling them to remain agile and thrive amid uncertainty. Today’s working adults, managers, and organizations should be prepared to enter a recession with “open eyes” while having contingent plans for the worst, empathizing with employees’ concerns, and taking advantage of upcoming opportunities to keep the organization afloat.

This paper examines the expansion of China's influence beyond economics into culture and ideology, focusing on its state-led cultural diplomacy in Southeast Asia, a region of critical strategic importance. Adopting a qualitative approach that utilizes case studies and empirical data, the research analyzes the mechanisms and motivations behind China's soft power strategy. The findings reveal that these initiatives are distinctly state-centric and frequently aligned with immediate economic or political goals. While this strategy has successfully established a notable cultural presence for China in the region, it is simultaneously hampered by significant challenges in building genuine trust and persuasive appeal. The paper concludes that the effectiveness of China's soft power is ultimately constrained by these issues, casting doubt on the long-term sustainability of its approach. These findings offer crucial insights for policymakers, suggesting that a more organic, trust-based approach is necessary for long-term success and informing how regional nations can formulate effective engagement strategies.

There has been debate about whether the population growth rate and remittance impacts are beneficial or detrimental to economic growth and whether population growth has any moderating role in the remittance-growth nexus. The purpose of this study is to empirically investigate the moderating role of population growth in the remittance-growth nexus, as well as to evaluate the direction of causality between these elements. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and the Granger causality test were employed to analyze the study's objectives. The analysis used data from the World Bank's World Development Indicators for the years 1990-2022. The findings of this study reveal that both population growth and remittances have a positive and significant impact on economic growth in the long run, whereas the population growth rate negatively and significantly moderates the impact of remittances on economic growth in the long run but is insignificant in the short run. The Granger causality test demonstrates unidirectional causation flowing from population expansion to economic growth. It consequently proposes that the government and individuals who receive these remittances invest them in more productive sectors such as health, education, and training so that they have a positive impact on the country's economic progress.

This research seeks to examine the nexus between industrialization and economic growth in Nigeria. The specific purpose of the study is to analyze the effects of manufacturing output, mining, electricity supply, construction, water/sewage/waste management, and labor force participation on Nigeria’s real gross domestic product growth rate. This study adopts an ex-post facto research design. The period covered spans from 1990 to 2024. Data were collected as annual time series secondary data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin (various years), World Development Indicators, and World Energy Statistics from the International Energy Agency. The data were analyzed using the Error Correction Model. Additional tests conducted include unit root, cointegration, and autocorrelation tests. The research employs an econometric approach. The results reveal that manufacturing, mining, electricity supply, construction, and water/sewage/waste management had a negative effect on economic growth in Nigeria in the short run. However, only the effects of manufacturing, electricity, construction, and waste management on the Nigerian economy were statistically significant. In conclusion, industrialization has a negative effect on Nigeria’s economic growth. Nigeria’s industrialization efforts have not yielded the expected positive effects on the economy, leading to declining outputs in manufacturing, mining, electricity supply, construction, and water/sewage/waste management sectors. When electricity supply and distribution to the industrial sector are adequately enhanced, coupled with increased productive capacity, Nigeria’s economy will be on the path to long-term growth.

This study investigates the dynamic relationship between income level and key environmental and institutional drivers in China, focusing on energy use, ecological footprint, trade openness, and rule of law over the period 1990–2023. The purpose is to assess how these factors jointly influence China’s growth trajectory under increasing sustainability challenges. The analysis employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, which captures both short-run adjustments and long-run equilibrium dynamics while accommodating variables with mixed integration orders. The empirical results show that ecological footprint, trade openness, and institutional quality exert statistically significant short-run effects on GDP, whereas energy use is not significant in the short run. The highly significant error correction term confirms rapid adjustment toward equilibrium, reflecting the economy’s sensitivity to shocks. In contrast, the long-run effects of energy, environmental, and institutional variables are statistically insignificant, suggesting that China’s growth path cannot rely on current structures to achieve sustainable outcomes. These findings contribute to the debate on the compatibility of economic expansion with environmental sustainability by providing new evidence from the Chinese context. Practical implications emphasize the need for structural reforms, including reducing coal dependence, accelerating the transition to renewable energy, embedding environmental standards into trade policy, and strengthening institutional enforcement mechanisms. The results also offer policy guidance aligned with China’s carbon neutrality objectives and Sustainable Development Goals.

This study evaluates the impact of the EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) on bilateral trade between Vietnam and Germany, addressing a gap in empirical research despite Germany’s role as Vietnam’s largest EU trading partner. The research adopts a trade indicator approach, applying the Bilateral Revealed Comparative Advantage (BRCA), Trade Intensity Index (TII), and Trade Complementarity Index (TCI) to analyze structural changes in trade between 2015 and 2023. The findings show that Vietnamese export sectors with established competitiveness, including footwear, leather, and wood products, have achieved notable gains under the EVFTA framework. However, sectors such as processed foods and high-tech machinery demonstrate limited improvement due to production constraints, compliance challenges, and value chain integration issues. Moreover, the results highlight a declining trend in both trade complementarity and intensity, indicating that the positive effects of the EVFTA have not been sustained in the long term. These findings underscore the need for Vietnam to enhance domestic production capacity, improve regulatory alignment with EU standards, and adopt a more proactive export strategy to fully capitalize on the agreement. Strengthening these dimensions will not only sustain existing advantages but also foster diversification and resilience in Vietnam-Germany trade relations under the evolving EVFTA landscape.

This study empirically examined the dynamic relationship between entrepreneurship development, inclusive growth, and poverty reduction from 1990 to 2021, driven by the need to address Nigeria's ongoing poverty. Using data from the World Bank and the Central Bank of Nigeria, the study aimed to establish a causal relationship between these variables using strong econometric techniques, such as the Granger causality test and the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS). The main conclusions showed that, contrary to popular opinion, entrepreneurship had a negative and negligible effect on poverty, whereas inclusive growth had a significant negative effect, demonstrating the effectiveness of entrepreneurship in reducing poverty. Additionally, it was discovered that entrepreneurship significantly and negatively affected inclusive growth. The results of the causality tests indicated a two-way relationship between poverty and inequality and a one-way relationship between entrepreneurship and poverty. Based on these findings, the study suggests that, in order to increase innovation and productivity, strategic investment in science and technology should go beyond simple entrepreneurial promotion. To guarantee that public funds are used efficiently for inclusive economic development, it also supports increased stimulus spending to generate employment and a crucial bolstering of anti-corruption organizations like the EFCC and ICPC.

Unemployment remains a major global challenge, with uneven progress across regions towards the 3% target. In Kenya, despite various interventions since independence, the issue remains unresolved and persistent. The aim of the study was to examine the effects of macroeconomic variables (economic growth, lending rate, development expenditure, and VAT) on unemployment in Kenya and provide empirical insights for designing policies to create employment. The study employed a time series research design to assess how changes in the macroeconomic variables under review influenced unemployment. The study adopted a two-regime Markov switching model with all parameters switching on secondary data for the period 1991-2024. Regime 1 represents a period of stagnating unemployment, while regime 2 represents a period of trend unemployment. The findings established that in both regimes, while economic growth significantly reduced unemployment, development expenditure was found to significantly increase unemployment. Conversely, the lending rate reduced unemployment, but the effect was only significant in regime 2. Similarly, VAT significantly increased unemployment only in regime 2. The findings imply that policymakers should promote sustainable and inclusive growth, while strategically allocating development funds to sectors that are labor-intensive and have high employment potential to create more employment opportunities and reduce unemployment. Additionally, they should enhance access to credit and consider targeted VAT reforms, such as exemptions or reductions of VAT rates, especially during periods of trend unemployment.

It is evident that the role of trade and governance institutions in enhancing economic complexity in Africa is still under serious debate regarding whether it is detrimental or beneficial to economic growth. The purpose of this study is to investigate how trade and governance institutions influence economic complexity in Africa using a system Generalized Method of Moments (system GMM) and 31 African economies for the period 2011-2020. Beyond these key variables of interest, our study includes some macroeconomic variables in the model, such as international tourism arrivals, infrastructural development, and human capital development, to ensure robustness of the results. The results of the system GMM reveal that trade promotes economic complexity in Africa, while institutional quality indicators such as control of corruption, rule of law, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, political stability, and absence of violence/terrorism, including voice and accountability, are predominantly negative in improving economic complexity on the continent. Further results of system GMM also reveal that infrastructural and human capital developments are relevant drivers of economic complexity, while international tourism arrivals played a detrimental role. This study proposes that African leaders and policymakers across the continent should come together to advance free trade and advocate reform for strong institutions through the instrumentality of the African Union.

The purpose of this study was to investigate whether gold served as a safe haven or a risky asset during periods of heightened volatility in the Indian stock market. Given India’s cultural and economic attachment to gold, this study explored the dynamic relationship between gold prices and stock market fluctuations, particularly during times of financial uncertainty. Using daily data from 2005 to 2023, the research employed GARCH (1,1), EGARCH (1,1), and DCC-GARCH models to analyze both the unconditional and time-varying correlations between gold returns and Nifty 50 returns. The findings revealed that gold exhibited significant safe-haven characteristics during extreme market downturns, offering protection to investors against stock market losses, with strong volatility persistence in both markets and significant leverage effects in the stock market. The DCC-GARCH model showed that gold exhibited a negative correlation with equities, particularly during periods of global financial crisis (2008–09), COVID-19 crash (2020), and Russia-Ukraine conflict (2022), confirming its role as a safe haven. The practical implications of this study are particularly relevant for investors, portfolio managers, and policymakers. Investors can use gold as an effective diversification tool to mitigate stock market risk, while policymakers can monitor gold price movements as indicators of investor sentiment and financial stability. The study contributed to the understanding of gold’s dual role in the Indian financial system as both a safe-haven asset and a speculative instrument, depending on market conditions.

This study examines the impact of Internal Corporate Social Responsibility (ICSR) on employee performance in selected deposit money banks in Ado-Ekiti, Nigeria. Four research objectives, research questions and five hypotheses were considered for the study respectively. Four key components of ICSR which are skill development, working conditions, empowerment, and employment stability were analyzed in relation to employee performance metrics such as job satisfaction, commitment, and engagement. A descriptive and explanatory research design was adopted, and data were collected from a sample of 303 bank employees using stratified and simple random sampling techniques. The Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) was used for data analysis, employing both descriptive statistics and multiple regression analysis to test five hypotheses. The study is anchored on Stakeholder Theory and Social Exchange Theory, which explains the relationship between organizational care and employee outcomes. Results showed that all ICSR variables significantly and positively influence employee performance, with empowerment having the strongest effect and employment stability the least. The study concludes that strategic investment in internal CSR initiatives leads to enhanced employee outcomes. It recommends that banks adopt consistent skill development programs, prioritize healthy work environments, involve employees in decision-making, and ensure job stability through transparent employment practices.

This study explores the challenges facing the Palestinian tourism sector and provides recommendations for its development. A systematic review methodology was used to analyze relevant studies, categorizing challenges into three areas: (1) occupation-related barriers, (2) internal structural obstacles, and (3) marketing and technological limitations. Key recommendations were extracted and synthesized. Findings indicate that the Israeli occupation imposes severe movement restrictions, site destruction, and misinformation campaigns. Internal obstacles include weak infrastructure, economic constraints, and inadequate professional capacity. Marketing and technological limitations hinder global visibility. Addressing these challenges requires political advocacy, infrastructure development, economic investment, and digital marketing strategies. Palestinian tourism has strong potential but is hindered by political, economic, and marketing barriers. A comprehensive strategy integrating political resolutions, economic development, and modern marketing approaches is essential for sustainable growth. The study provides actionable insights for policymakers and tourism stakeholders, emphasizing infrastructure improvement, digital marketing, and global advocacy to enhance the sector’s sustainability.

Tax revenue plays a significant role in funding government activities, especially in emerging economies where public investment is essential for infrastructure development and economic progress. This paper assessed the effectiveness of digital tax platforms, specifically electronic tax filing, automated tax payment systems, and blockchain-based tax solutions on revenue generation and capital projects funding in Nigeria. This study employed survey research design using primary data collected via structured questionnaires. The sample included 4,352 individuals comprising tax officials from FIRS, federal government officials in finance and infrastructure, and IT experts involved in digital tax platforms. A multistage sampling method, combining purposive and random techniques, was used to arrive at 384 respondents as sample size. Data analysis involved descriptive statistics and multivariable regression. This found that digital tax platforms which comprised of electronic tax filing, automated tax payment systems, and blockchain-based tax solutions had a positive and significant effects on revenue generation and capital projects funding in Nigeria. This study concluded that digital tax platforms significantly improve both revenue generation and capital project funding in Nigeria. It was therefore recommended that the government should expand and modernize its digital tax infrastructure nationwide to ensure broader adoption among taxpayers and administrators.

The purpose of this study is to assess the effect of the use of computerized accounting systems on organizational performance and the effect it has on the performance of Non-governmental organization on the Copperbelt Province of Zambia. The study uses a simple random sampling technique and employed a mixed method approach, quantitative and qualitative research design methodologies. This study employed a correlation analysis and a combination of data collection methods such as interviews, direct observation and questionnaires to gather the needed data to ascertain the relationship between variables. The findings showed 80% adoption rate; also confirmed that the use of computerized accounting systems in NGOs contributed positively to financial reporting practices that are required by funders. The results from correlation tests indicated that; there is a highly significant positive relationship between computerized accounting system (X) and performance (Y) in NGO’s with (r = 0.730, p = 0.022). It was concluded that, the use of computerized accounting system in these non-governmental organizations simplified a lot of tiresome work, such as invoicing and inventory management. If the adoption rate would move to a rate of 100%, there would be efficiency, transparency and appropriateness in the financial reporting structures in NGO’s.